PARIS, May 20: The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash could lead to a period of political instability but is unlikely to change Irans foreign policy or its role in the Middle East, analysts said on Monday.
The hardline cleric was considered a favourite to succeed supreme leader Ali Khamenei, 85, who has ultimate authority in Iran, and Raisis death will pose a challenge to the countrys authorities in ensuring the stability of the political system.
But analysts are betting on the continuity of the Islamic republics foreign policy which is the domain of Ayatollah Khamenei and the secretive Supreme National Security Council.
"A successor may emerge who is as conservative and loyal to the system as Raisi was," said Ali Vaez, an Iran specialist at the International Crisis Group.
"On foreign policy, the supreme leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will continue to dominate strategic decisions", he said on social media site X, anticipating "more continuity than change".
Farid Vahid, an Iran expert at the Fondation Jean-Jaures, said that "Raisi was absolutely in lockstep with the Guard Corps", which "has left a lot of room and freedom for the Guards in the region".
With Raisi, "decision-making was very fluid because he was completely subservient to the leader", Vahid told AFP.
"The question for the Iranian conservatives is to find someone who will be elected... and who will not cause them too many problems."
Iran is scheduled to hold presidential elections within 50 days to replace Raisi, with vice president Mohammad Mokhber, 68, to assume interim duties.
Raisis death comes at a time tensions are soaring between the Islamic republic and Israel following the start of the war in Gaza after Hamass attacks on Israel on October 7.
Those tensions peaked in mid-April, when Iran carried out an unprecedented attack against Israel, unleashing 350 drones and missiles, most of which were intercepted with the help of the United States and other allied countries.
Tehran also supports the so-called Axis of Resistance against Israel -- a network of armed groups including Lebanons Hezbollah, the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas, and the Huthi rebels in Yemen.
"It will be (the) status quo," Jason Brodsky, an expert at the Middle East Institute, said of Irans relations with these groups.
"The IRGC reports to the supreme leader and liaises with Hezbollah, the Huthis, Hamas and the militias across the region. The modus operandi and the grand strategy of the Islamic republic will remain the same," he told the BBC. —AFP
