The Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India published a report titled "Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)" that has sparked heated debate and created significant tension between Hindus and Muslims in India. Using data from 167 countries, this report examines the status and trends of religious minorities around the world over a 65-year period. This study explores the status of religious minorities who frequently subjected to discrimination, humiliation, and even physical violence.It hypothesized that the growth of religious minority is dependent on the political environment, in a conducive political environment,religious minorities grow and thrive but in a hostile environment they decline.
Although this is a global repot, it gives special focus on the Indian subcontinent, SAARC countries and Myanmar. It measures the percentage change of religious minorities and identifies significant shifts in the population shares of major religions in various countries including India,. In India, between 1950 and 2015, the Hindu population fell by 7.82%, while the Muslim population grew by 43.15%. During the same time period, the religious minority Hindu population in Bangladesh fell from 23% to 8%, a 66% decrease, while the Hindu population in Pakistan fell from 13% to 2%. Among the neighboring countries, the Buddhist majority countries Bhutan and Sri Lanka also witnessed significant decrease in religious minority Hindu population, while the Hindu majority Nepal witnessed a slight increase in Muslim and Christian population.
In India, Hindus and Muslims together account for 94% of the total population. Historically, fertility rate (average number of children a woman is estimated to have in her life) of Muslims were higher than that of Hindus. The fertility rate difference between these two religious groups is a sensitive and hotly debated issue in political, social and academic circles. Some scholars predicted that if the current fertility rates continue, Muslims will outnumber Hindus by the year 2071. Findings of this report have reignited an old debate that Muslims will eventually outnumber Hindus in India and triggered huge tension.Considering its wider social and political implications, it is crucial to examine demographic data and trends to determine the validity of this perspective and promote an informed discussion.
While religious beliefs can influence fertility behavior to some extent, an increasing body of evidence suggests that socioeconomic status, economic empowerment, education, awareness, access to healthcare facilities, government policies, and socio-cultural norms also play crucial role in fertility decisions. For instance, Muslim women in Andhra Pradesh or Kerala tend to have fewer children than Hindu women in Bihar or Jharkhand. Additionally, several Muslim-majority countries, including Albania, the UAE, Qatar, and Iran have experienced declines in fertility rates over the past few decades, bringing them below the global average. These examples highlight the fact that labeling fertility rates based solely on religious faith is not fair.
Let us examine the socioeconomic status of Muslims in India. The Sachar Committee Report, commissioned by the Government of India and chaired by Justice Rajindar Sachar, investigated the socioeconomic status of Muslims in India and submitted its findings in 2006. According to this report, Muslims in India lag behind other religious communities in education, employment, income, and access to basic amenities such as housing, healthcare, and other public services. Muslims not only had lower levels of educational attainment but also faced challenges in accessing formal employment opportunities, and frequently worked in low-paying informal sectors. A significantly large proportion of Muslims lived below the poverty line. They are also underrepresented in government jobs, civil services, and public sector enterprises, as well as in elected bodies and decision-making positions at various levels of government. Several academic studies confirmed this disparities.
Inthe last three decades, fertility rates among Muslims are declining fast. In 1992, Muslim fertility rate was 4.4 and Hindu fertility rate was 3.3 with a gap of 1.1. But, fertility rate among Muslims dropped to 3.6 in 1998, 3.4 in 2005, 2.6 in 2015, and 2.36 in 2019. Similarly, Hindu fertility rates have decreased from 3.3 in 1992 to 2.8 in 1998, 2.6 in 2005, 2.1 in 2015 and1.94 in 2019. The National Family and Health Survey (2019-21) reveals that from 2011 to 2019, TFR of Muslims is decreasing faster than that of Hindus. Because of this, the gap between fertility rate between the Hindus and Muslims reduced to 0.42. While Muslim fertility rates remain higher than those of Hindus, the gap is narrowing and on the verge of convergence.
India is a vast and diverse country with a rich tapestry of cultures, languages, religions, and ethnicities. Since the days of Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru, India has embraced a liberal democratic philosophy, allowing various groups to thrive. The founding fathers of the Indian Constitution, envisioned a secular India and guarantee religious freedom in the Constitution. This made India standout among the neighboring countries. However, the growing number of evidence indicates that recently this liberal ideology is being eroded by the majoritarian politics which further intensified tensions between the religious groups. By translating the democratic and secular ideals of its founding fathers, India can bridge the current social and religious divisions and celebrate its rich diversity.
The writer is a Professor, Department of Economics, International University of Business Agriculture and Technology (IUBAT)
