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Why Netanyahus US politicking will fail

Published : Wednesday, 10 July, 2024 at 12:00 AM  Count : 130
DR RAMZY BAROUD
Many political analysts believe that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is buying time in Gaza and Lebanon in the hope that Donald Trump returns to the White House following Novembers US presidential election. Whether this is the case or not, a victorious Trump would be unlikely, this time around, to influence the outcomes of the war or to alter Israels fate.

US foreign policy seems to be ruled by two different outlooks: one dedicated to the whole world and another only to Israel. The first is driven by the famous and oft-repeated quote by former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger that "America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests." Israel, however, remains the exception and the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza has again demonstrated the truth of this claim.

Though Washington fully shares Israels war objectives, it fundamentally disagrees with the concept of the long war and "total victory," as championed by Netanyahu. The protracted wars in Afghanistan and Iraq taught the Americans that neither the longevity of wars nor the lofty, unrealistic expectations alter inevitable outcomes. In fact, many US officials, military generals and mainstream analysts have tried to warn Netanyahu, but to no avail. Destabilizing the Middle East at this specific historical juncture is simply bad for the US. It comes at a time when Ukraine is suffering a serious weapons shortage, thus territorial losses, and when the US and its European allies are struggling under the weight of economic and political crises.

Since US-Israeli relations are governed according to a unique foreign policy paradigm, the Biden administration continues to support Israel in every possible way so that it may carry on with a losing war. The war is, of course, happening at the expense of the more than 125,000 Palestinians who have thus far been killed or wounded due to Israeli strikes, shelling and mass executions. Those dying from famine or disease are yet to be fully accounted for. Washington is not perturbed by the Gaza genocide itself, but by the impact of the war on US plans in the Middle East and the future of its forces in Iraq and Syria. It is also concerned about its geostrategic sway in the region due to the unprecedented instability of the Red Sea.

Yet, President Joe Biden continues to arm Israel and provide a safety net for its dwindling economy. In April, Biden signed off legislation to provide $26.3 billion in assistance to Israel. Moreover, massive shipments of weapons continue to flow unhindered. These explosives are not only destroying the whole of Gaza, but also any chance that the US could ever regain any degree of credibility in the Middle East. Worse, the US blind support for Israel has also shaken Washingtons position internationally. So, what could Trump do that Biden has not?

Trumps politics are unabashedly Machiavellian. During his term in office between 2017 and 2021, he served the role of the American genie, granting Israels every wish, even though all such demands were flagrant violations of international law. Trumps pro-Israel policies included the recognition of all of Jerusalem as Israels capital, the annexation of the Golan Heights and the recognition of all illegal Israeli Jewish-only settlements in the West Bank. But Netanyahu is also Machiavellian, a fact that irked Trump following his humiliating exit from the White House. "I haven spoken to him since," Trump said in an interview in December 2021.

 Now, however, both sides are trying to rekindle their love affair. The Republican presidential candidate must be pleased with Netanyahus public criticism of the Biden administration. In return, Trump is ready to "finish the job," as he stated in the first presidential debate last month. However, Trumps return to the White House would do nothing to change Israels misfortunes since Oct. 7, because Israels problems do not originate in Washington.

Israels crisis is multifaceted. It is unable to win the war in Gaza, despite the mass tragedy and destruction it has created there. It is also failing to change the rules of engagement in Lebanon due to the strength of its enemies - and the fact that its military is unable to fight and win on one front, let alone multiple. Another dimension of the Israeli crisis is also internal: the deep divisions in Israeli society, in the security apparatus and between politicians.

Not even Trump could possibly end the polarization, which is likely to deepen in the future. On the international front, Trump is also likely to again prove equally ineffective, simply because the Biden administration has defied the international consensus on Israel since the start of the war. The US House even went as far as passing legislation to sanction International Criminal Court officials after its prosecutor applied for arrest warrants for Israeli leaders.
If Netanyahu thinks that Trump would offer him a better deal than Biden, he is mistaken. Biden has proven to be the greatest American enabler of Israel in the countrys 76-year history.

Ironically, the US unquestioning support of Israel could be a contributing factor in its downfall. "It may be dangerous to be Americas enemy, but to be Americas friend is fatal," Kissinger also said. He is not wrong.

SOURCE: ARAN NEWS


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