LONDON, July 16: Stock markets fluctuated Tuesday as rising expectations that Donald Trump will return to the White House played up against expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates at least once this year.
Traders struggled to extend gains on Wall Street, where the Dow on Monday chalked up its first record since May.
The dollar firmed in line with Treasury yields on speculation that another Trump tariff battle with China and likely tax cuts could push inflation higher.
Gold, seen as a haven investment, headed back towards a record-high seen in May.
"The confluence of political developments, economic data, and central bank actions continues to create a complex landscape for global currencies," said Luca Santos, market analyst at ACY Securities.
Recent polls show the former presidents chances of beating incumbent Joe Biden have surged since the assassination attempt on him at the weekend, while his choice of JD Vance saw US futures extend gains.
"Increased market confidence after Saturdays failed assassination attempt that Donald Trump will be re-elected president in November has been reflected in market movements across US Treasuries, equities and currencies since the weekend," said Ray Attrill at National Australia Bank.
"The US yield curve is steeper, the dollar modestly higher and energy and banking stocks leading the charge in the S&P 500."
While the Dow led gains in New York, Asia investors were a little more cautious.
Hong Kong dropped more than one percent owing to further losses in the tech sector, while Sydney, Singapore, Manila, Bangkok and Jakarta also fell.
Tokyo, Seoul, Wellington, Taipei and Mumbai edged up and Shanghai was slightly higher with traders awaiting policy measures from Chinas leaders as they hold a key economic meeting this week.
London, Paris and Frankfurt retreated approaching the half-way stage.
A key survey Tuesday showed German investor confidence fell for the first time in a year in July, as the prospects for Europes largest economy seemed to darken once again.
The ZEW institutes closely watched economic expectations index fell to 41.8 points, from 47.5 points in June.
On the corporate front, Cartier-owner Richemont said its quarterly sales in China tumbled by 27 percent as the deepening economic malaise in the worlds second-largest economy lashes luxury firms. —AFP
