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Explainer: Will Venezuela's disputed election lead to new era of isolation?

Published : Friday, 2 August, 2024 at 12:00 AM  Count : 265
HOUSTON, Aug 1:  The United States is considering fresh sanctions on Venezuela following Sunday's disputed presidential election. Incumbent President Nicolas Maduro claimed victory, but opposition leaders say tallies show their candidate Edmundo Gonzalez won more than twice as many votes as Maduro.

If governments in North America and Europe seek to impose new measures against Maduro's administration, they could potentially return the country to isolation, analysts said.

Venezuela has been hit with economic and oil sanctions by several countries since 2017 over accusations of corruption, drug trafficking and human rights violations. The most severe package has been imposed by the U.S. in the last five years following Maduro's 2018 reelection, which Washington rejected as a sham.

An easing of some sanctions last year to encourage the 2024 election was reversed in April after the U.S. said Maduro had failed to meet all his commitments. That meant individual companies have to apply for licenses to operate in the energy sector, although a key license to U.S. producer Chevron granted in 2022 remains in force.

Maduro has bristled against the sanctions, which include more than 900 punitive measures, according to data by the Venezuelan government. He has called them illegal and demanded their withdrawal.

"They made us lose 99% of our revenue," Maduro said in a broadcast speech last week. "(But) no school or university was closed, not a single social program was canceled. We have reinvented ourselves."

Options being considered by the U.S. include individual sanctions on officials, including U.S. travel bans for those linked to the disputed election, according to sources in Washington.

That could later escalate to other types of sanctions if deemed necessary, including measures on the financial and energy sectors, they said.

U.S. officials said on Monday they were not currently considering any changes to Chevron's license or to other individual authorizations. Chevron's license has become a flagship mechanism to recover debt by exporting Venezuelan crude, copied by other companies with operations in the country.

The officials said they were coordinating with regional allies on a response and would also work with international partners on potential consequences.

The European Union has also imposed sanctions on Venezuela in recent years, and along with the U.S., Brazil and other countries has urged Venezuela's National Electoral Council to provide immediate access to the voting tallies.

"Until voting records are made public and are verified, the election results as already declared cannot be recognized," it said.

Venezuela's crude oil production averaged 884,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of this year, 15% above the same period of 2023, but well below the 3.2 million bpd peak in 1997 before late President Hugo Chavez took office.

About two-thirds of Venezuela's crude production capacity has been lost in the last decade due to a lack of investment, an exodus of skilled workers, mismanagement and corruption at state company PDVSA and, more recently, sanctions.

The same problems have kept Venezuela's gas industry severely underdeveloped. The country's gas output - which is now half of what it was in 2016 - is not enough to meet domestic demand despite Venezuela having the largest reserves in Latin America. Venezuela is flaring, or burning off, a large portion of production.

An eventual return to full sanctions on the energy industry would put a ceiling on Venezuela's scant progress to recover oil output, making it difficult to meet its goal of 1.2 million bpd by year end.
    — REUTERS



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