The country's forex reserves may increase to US$ 27 billion in September. Meanwhile, three major economic indicators -- imports, remittances and foreign exchange reserves -- are likely to increase in the first quarter of the current fiscal 2024-25.
Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry in its quarterly review released on Tuesday said monthly imports bills may hit $5.68 billion in September, up from August's projection of $5.51 billion and July's estimation of $5.39 billion.
Remittances may grow to $2.29 billion next month from $2.18 billion in August. Inflation, which hits 11.66 percent in July, the highest in 13 years, is expected to ease this month and next month.
"The economy is trying to overcome the difficulties due to the present conflicting world scenario. So the performances of the selected economic indicators are mixed," MCCI said.
It didn't however project exports as the Export Promotion Bureau refrained from publishing export data for three months since June after correcting a massive data mismatch.
Imports and remittances may decrease in July due to the present slow down of the economy and then may increase in the next two months, MCCI said adding foreign exchange reserve may decrease in July due to payment of $1.42 billion Asian Clearing Union ( ACU) bill for May-June period.
"Inflation increased in July, but expected to fall in August and September of 2024." It also said the economy showed some signs of improvement with the increase of foreign exchange reserves and remittances in June.
But the massive mayhem following the students protest against quotas system for government jobs since the start of July dealt a big blow to business.
"After the fall of the Awami League government on August 5, the interim government has just taken power and it will take time to normalise business activities," it added.
The MCCI said issues such as smooth logistics, banking services and security in industries needed to be addressed. It stressed the need to overcome rising inflation, slowdown in external demand, weak remittance inflow; shortfall in revenue collection, slow public expenditure, depreciation of taka and a decline in foreign exchange reserves.
Unemployment and low investment are other challenges, it said. The authorities need to protect small businesses and ensure proper electricity and gas supply.
The chamber body further said agricultural production was good this year because of favorable natural factors and strong government support.
Manufacturing registered a slow rebound. The gradual easing of import restrictions, clearance of L/C backlog and introduction of the crawling peg interest rate to manage the exchange rate spurred economic activity, the MCCI said.
However, real estate business remains sluggish, mainly because of higher costs of property and lower purchasing power of people.
"Besides, higher prices of building materials have slowed overall construction work," it said. "The devaluation of taka against US dollar is one of the major reasons for the increase in construction costs. Labor and transportation costs have also risen."
MCCI said Bangladesh was yet to see tangible economic pickup citing the decrease of gross inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) by 6.5 percent year-on-year to $3.8 billion in July-May period of FY25.
The other impediments are shortages of energy and its weak transmission infrastructure, lack of consistency in policy and regulatory frameworks, scarcity of industrial land, corruption, and non-transparent and uneven application of rules and regulations, it said.
