Saturday | 5 October 2024 | Reg No- 06
বাংলা
   
Saturday | 5 October 2024 | Epaper
BREAKING: ● Sailor dies after oil tanker catches fire in Ctg      ● Ex-president Badruddoza Chowdhury passes away      ● Killing during students' movement: 9 bodies to be exhumed in Sylhet      ● Malaysian prime minister leaves Dhaka for home      ● CA seeks Malaysian support for Bangladesh to be ASEAN dialogue partner      ● Malaysian PM assures of attention to 18,000 Bangladesh workers       ● Bid to kill Khaleda Zia: Sheikh Hasina among 113 sued      

Is a full-scale war in Middle East imminent?  

Published : Saturday, 5 October, 2024 at 12:00 AM  Count : 202
ZAKIR PARVES
The Israeli military has adopted 'Escalate to de-escalate' policy in the Middle East. The current aggression in Lebanon is a reflection of this policy. After airstrike, Israeli military launched ground incursion into southern Lebanon. Many civilians have been killed and created a tragic humanitarian crisis there. It deeply shocks our conscience. Citizens of different cities like Washington, London and many European cities have taken to the street in distraction from the dualism of the super-powers. Iran, the key patron of Hezbollah has already made a counter-attack with their new 'Fatah supersonic missile'. 

This has been heightened the stake of a full-scale war in the Middle East. What would be the next? It's a matter of great concern. Some experts are trying to say that, this aggression will take the United States into an undefined war. But I think that, the United States is already in the battle. 

So, no need to push it again. In the last airstrike, Israeli military launched about 15 'Bunker-buster' bomb including 'BLU-109' made by the US. Naval destroyers of US have already been joined with the Israeli military to neutralize the ballistic missile launched by the IRGC stated by Jake Sullivan in a press briefing in the White house. Sullivan also applauded the professionalism and joint proficient task of the both forces. 

After the airstrike of Iran, Joe Biden declared a thorough facilitation for Israel for the following days. But they were unwilling to ward off Israel from the ongoing genocide in Gaza valley in Palestine whereas more than 41 thousand people had been killed officially in a lower span of time. Moreover, the supply of some destroying weapons from the US has been increased some more times.An arms package of $20 billion has been approved by Biden administration in the last August for Israel.

After Iran's strike, US invited its friends to co-operate with them if needed in the upcoming volatile circumstances.These are the prominent vindications of the US upholding the atrocity of Israel.If the military confrontation remains ongoing, there will be two options for Iran to strive in the war. One is to use its oil resource to push the ball in the court of the US. The Strait of Hormuz is an important commercial chockpoint for oil transportation. 

It is used to transport about 15 percent of the world supply. So its significance is beyond description. The Strait of Hormuz is hardly controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. If it is intensified by Iran in the context of war, there will be created an artificial shortage in the world market and the oil price also will be affected. 

Another important shipping route of crude oil is Suez Canal. But there is also a chance of Houthi attack. A cargo vessel was attacked by Houthi of Yemen just before this violence. So, the both route are under the strong surveillance of Iranian alliance. On the other side, probably the US are prepared itself considering the future turbulence. It is understood observing the record production of crude oil of the US. According to US energy information administration, at daily average of about 12.9 million barrel of oil has been produced in only 2023 fiscal year. But a question is raised here, why this huge amount of crude oil is produced by the US.


Is it prepared for something? A possible answer could be,If Iranian alliance creates an artificial scarcity, this high rate of production will be able to degrade the detrimental effect of oil shortage in the world market. Iran is an important member of OPEC+. At daily average of 3.2 million barrel of oil is produced in Iran which is 3% of the world production. This year, Iran exported about 1.7 million bpd crude oil despite the US sanction. The main buyers of this supply are Chinese refiners. They don't accept the unilateral sanction of US. 

Now, the total production capacity of OPEC+ countries is 5.86 bpd. Is it enough to deal with the oil crisis? If possible, then how long can it keep oil prices stable? It's a matter of argument. However, it should be increased with the most productive membersof OPEC+ like Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. These two countries are in the in the alliance of 'Biden-Harris' administration. This is widely known as 'Coalition of Inclusive' which is conducted under the leadership of US-Israel alliance. 

They complied with the proposal of normalizing relationship with Israel. This is hard reckoning and a bad headache for Iran. So they took the adversative way forming a counter alliance named 'Coalition of Resistance' which includes another super power Russia and North Korea. This is the point of conflict. Now, these two alliances are deadly against with their geo-political interest. So, it assumes that these countries will contribute with their best in oil production if there is any artificial shortage created by the 'Coalition of resistance'. But all these analyses, if a regional war takes place, it will be severely heightened the oil price in the world market. 

So, oil is an international security issue now. All have to bear this in minds. After the missile attack of Iran, oil price has already been increased by the investors considering the increasing violence in Middle East.However, there has been no disruption in supply so far after all these incidences.From another point of view, many oil experts believe that Israel may attack Iranian oil depots. If Israel does that, Iran can also attack oil depots in its neighboring countries, especially Saudi Arabia which is connected with the opposite alliance of Iran. It will be like pouring oil on fire. 

As a result, this war could spread to the entire region of the Middle East. There is another concern thatif full-scale war breaks out, nuclear weapons are likely to be involved in this war, because both Iran and Israel are nuclear weapons riches countries.For this,the world may witness a humanitarian disaster like Japan again. The course of the war reminds us of that. So,a cease-fire proposal through the United Nations is therefore urgently needed to avoid all-out war and to stop the killing of civilians.

The writer is a teacher


LATEST NEWS
MOST READ
Also read
Is a full-scale war in Middle East imminent?  
How UN stays relevant by prolonging ME crisis
Unchanging value of literature in the age of algorithms
Teachers should focus on social justice in classrooms
Our fiscal transparency in the report of USA
Joviality in self exploration
The observance of the world teacher's day in the new light
Natural gas crisis in Bangladesh: Is LNG the only solution?
Editor : Iqbal Sobhan Chowdhury
Published by the Editor on behalf of the Observer Ltd. from Globe Printers, 24/A, New Eskaton Road, Ramna, Dhaka.
Editorial, News and Commercial Offices : Aziz Bhaban (2nd floor), 93, Motijheel C/A, Dhaka-1000.
Phone: PABX- 41053001-06; Online: 41053014; Advertisement: 41053012.
E-mail: info©dailyobserverbd.com, news©dailyobserverbd.com, advertisement©dailyobserverbd.com, For Online Edition: mailobserverbd©gmail.com
🔝