For the past six months I have been willingly following all the Donald Trump speeches. Not because they are informative or meaningful in nature - but because they are impudent displays of his blatant lies and open admittance of ignorance about the world and US foreign policies. More to it, what's rather amazing about the man, no matter how stupid he may sound, his words are backed by a strong but a fake self-assurance. He stands at the podium with the least amount of respect for the audience. Then explains his decisions fancied by his whims, lack of knowledge and extreme prejudices. He then signs an executive order hardly worth the ink. Finally exhibits the signed document by holding and moving it from a 180 degree angle pointing to his audience and the media. As if, he has just signed the Magna Carta.
However, just hours after President Trump had re-imposed sanctions on Iran by withdrawing from the Iran nuke deal last Tuesday, it had become clear that once more the Middle East was heading towards volatile times. And it has begun with Israeli jets pounding Iranian targets on Syria last Thursday.
Undeniably more attacks are on the offing but the million dollar question, however, is Trump's fear purely restricted within Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities - developing warheads for long-distance missiles or are there other reasons too?
The fact: with or without a nuclear weapon Iran would always continue to be a regional threat to American geopolitical interests in the Middle East. Here it needs be mentioned, the Iran deal brokered by Obama hadn't actually stopped the Iran nuclear programme - it bought time and effectively delayed and averted military conflicts in the Middle East for a time span of 15 years or so. If not now, in the distant future, Iran would somehow develop its own weapon. So the nuke programme may be one of the main reasons for him to reject but never "the main reason".
Since Trump assumed office, he has appeared instrumental in creating divisions in the Middle East, and it became starkly noticeable following his first visit to Saudi Arabia. The Arab Spring had resulted in a power vacuum which both Saudi Arabia and Qatar sought to fill, with Qatar being supportive of the revolutionary wave and Saudi Arabia opposing it, relations had soured between the two but they were actually avoiding direct conflict with one another. There were marked levels of tolerance but all hell broke loose, as Trump provoked Saudi and its allies to stand against Qatar.
Now he has taken the US out of the Iran nuke deal only by adding more fuel to Israel's fortitude to attack and destroy Iran. Neither of the two moves is adopted in the light of well thought foreign policies. These are his personal decisions by completely dismissing opinions of his secretary of state and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Trump's unfounded interference, signing and cancelling of deals with Middle East countries often seems like watching a rowdy superstore owner - repeatedly failing to handle his suppliers. And the owner also loathes the most talented supplier who might one day own a same superstore like him.
The Iran-phobia is not a new phenomenon among a number of US presidents, but what the previous US presidents managed to come up with new ideas and pacts to tackle Iran. Trump neither has a better nuke deal for Iran nor does he care of future repercussions. He wants to exercise power in the region with the help of Saudi Arabia by dividing the Arab world for the worse.
In fact, Saudi and American interests in the Middle East are not too different despite a multitude of differences - especially when it comes to establish regional and global supremacy. And Saudi Arabia's track-record as a regional leader in terms of conflict resolution, establishing peace, uniting its neighbouring countries and leading the Ummah has always been poor.
This writer suspects, Trump's long-standing sinister plan with Iran is nothing very different from what it did to Iraq or Afghanistan - cripple a nation for good. However, that's not easy to realise since Trump has evidently isolated the US from its key allies in Europe. And it's right on this point, where we are about to witness a growing polarisation between America and Europe. America's allies know it and we pray they unite to deter Trump from his whimsical and irrational decision making. And as for Iran's mounting escalation of conflicts with the US - the country is finding itself further pushed into an alliance with China and Russia.
And for the Russians - it is party-time at Kremlin since Trump continues to isolate and create divisions between America and its European allies. It wouldn't be surprising to watch Iran being backed by Russia while quick emerging as the regional leader.
Finally, the US president may be writing a new world order which might well place Iran in the seat of a regional leader with the help of a different set of allies and completely change the US geopolitical calculations in the Middle East. What Trump fails to realise - unlike numerous shattered and ruined Arab countries - Iran's reality is different - it's not alone. The writer is Assistant Editor, The Daily Observer
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