Nowadays it appears it is. Sensibly speaking, there isn't a leader to steer the once biggest opposition political party in Bangladesh. Begum Zia is in prison while her son is in exile. Bulk of the senior leaders had left the party long ago. Despite its disgraceful defeat in the recent general elections, the party still hasn't severed ties with Jamaat-e-Islami.
Given the party's poor performance at the parliament in the last decade as a pro-people party, the public has turned somewhat sceptic about its goals and objectives as a political party in Bangladesh. Failing to hide the visible cracks within the party's morale, the party was forced to forge a national unity with prominent leaders of the country under Dr Kamal led Oikyyafront banner , and also that had failed miserably in the recent polls. Most ominously, in the last three weeks of post election period, the party evidently failed to organise even a big scale rally.
It may be good news for the ruling party and also this writer, but Bangladesh has now manifestly become a one party rule. And in a one party rule there is every possibility to assume absolute power, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. However, the trillion dollar question - who is the political substitute opposition in Bangladesh today. The answer is astonishingly simple--there is none.
Sensing the sad political reality of 2019, what's disappointing for many BNP supporters is that the party has lost its direction. Chances of a split within may not only divide BNP to two or many fractions but invite a threat to its existence in the country. For this writer, it was clear and confirmed that BNP would perform poorly from the very date it announced its election manifesto and since then the situation has turned worse for the party.
BNP's 7 or so elected MP's are yet to comprehend what the future beholds for them. And I am sure that there are realising the fact--winning can sometimes turn into a liability of sorts. Feeling sorry for the ones who won, they are now in two minds and confused about their responsibilities as law makers.
On the topic of recovery from its lumbering state, a number of its politicians and supporters had elaborated a number of formulas and plans to this writer. Truth, however, they merely remain as theories, having none to materialise them. BNP is surely realising this painful truth but at the same time the party top brass is miscalculating the psyche and demand of the public.
People in 2018's Bangladesh hadn't voted in the old sick-and-tired pattern. Even if there were just 25 per cent rigging, irregularities or however you may term it, Awami League would have won 11th JS polls. My readers are most welcome to disagree. The unproductive alliance branded as the Oikyya front has appeared nothing more than a paper tiger. All the fractions of the Jatiya party were bought well in advance and the opposition we will now witness at the parliament is nothing more than a 'Vichy opponent party'.
As much as it seems, there is joy for the party in power, there also exists a massive political challenge for the future. The BNP no longer exists as a substantial political opponent to reckon with; simultaneously it takes little time for a formidable political foe to emerge. In the absence of BNP' positive role in politics, the country today has become a fertile ground for a new political force to emerge. Perhaps that force will be made of new faces and younger leaders. If that is to take place, BNP is surely likely to go into oblivion carrying the late general's military-cum-rightist ideology.
From a technical perspective, BNP will have to perform extraordinarily at its grassroots level to widen its political activities and that's noticeably missing. The party actually needs a miracle to address all its inner deficiencies. And miracles only happen when you are in tuned with the divinity. BNP isn't in tuned with it, and its religion card has been played far too many times for cashing on the public's religious sentiments. Markedly, politically it has little new dreams to offer to the people--no new road map for economy that's already booming.
The signs for the beginning of the end for BNP are all there, but sadly it intentionally chooses to ignore it. The party's recovery mechanism to overcome its failures, as of now, is all too ambivalent. Nevertheless, the need of the hour for BNP is to reinvent and resurface itself as a completely different political entity.
Can it do it? And if it somehow manages to do it, it will have to come with a lot of necessary sacrifices. The party will surely have to divert from its right wing beliefs since Bangladesh was never a country for diehard leftists or rightists. The party will have, to a great extent, restructure its leadership, chalk out a clear political vision for the future. Most importantly, it will have to function as a responsible and appealing political party to capture public's political imagination.
For this writer, core differences between BNP and AL were never too complicated. AL had routinely planned to assume state paper based on its organising skills and shrewd realpolitik strategies when it was in the opposition, whereas BNP purely banked on capitalising public emotion, government's failures while resorting to methods of violence and vandalism. After assuming power in 2009, AL leadership appeared persistent for a long-term political planning but BNP was a far cry in terms of prioritising and strategising its political future. As of now, the countrywide acceptance of Tarique Zia as a single leader of the party is missing. This is actually what happens to a party born out of the cantonment, and not out of public's political need.
The political truth of today's Bangladesh: state power does not get shifted on a five year basis any longer. The notion of caretaker government has become outdated and uncalled for. And following the spree of international recognitions pouring in for the new government, despite disagreements on the last general elections, they expect to see political stability in Bangladesh.
How does BNP assess the current political reality, what is its plan for the future or has the beginning of the end for BNP has begun?
The writer is Assistant Editor of The Daily Observer
