The fact that Bangladesh was increasingly getting focused to remodel its diplomatic priorities became clearer last year--when the prime minister officially declared "India not need to worry about Dhaka's growing ties with China--asserting that the cooperation with Beijing was meant only for the country's development". The same message was redelivered last week when the newly re-elected PM said, "India should not worry about the China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) rather it can join the initiative for the economic benefit of all countries."
A much nuanced reiteration of her previous diplomatic message coupled with a clear hint that Dhaka was likely to strengthen its bilateral ties with China because of its development centred diplomatic ambitions. Now that development is strongly linked with infrastructure based mega projects, Delhi by now should realize it. That said, there are sufficient reasons to assume that Bangladesh diplomacy's future is much likely to be leaning more towards Beijing, not Delhi.
This writer buttresses his conviction, from the new foreign minister's interview a little over week ago. The foreign minister appeared clear-cut, in terms of chalking out the country's future diplomatic goals. The honourable minister clearly outlined about the new government's pursuit for economic diplomacy, meaning fixed targets on trade, commerce and investments. On that note it is the need of the hour for India to revaluate and make quick decisions on its existing trade and economic ties with us. As a development partner, India's several low-interest, long-term lines of credit for Bangladesh over the last six years, totalling to $ 8 billion (including USD 500 million for defence purchases), hasn't materialised in expectation with the speed it should have. The trade deficit is another important issue. The huge trade deficit between Bangladesh and India--up until now has been clearly tilted towards the latter-and has so far been proved as 'one of the bones of contention'. The deficit with India stood at $ 7.6 billion barely a year ago and due to India's so-called protectionist policies the gap is likely to widen.
On the topic of defence cooperation, India is not only one of the top importers of foreign weaponry itself, but has evidently failed to produce a world-class rifle for its own army as of now. And Bangladesh being a traditional client of Chinese and Russian weapons for decades surely needs to reassess Indian made military hardware. It's equally crucial for India to import more from BD. Regarding increased imports from here, it's been quite often mentioned that 'Bangladesh is unable to meet India's huge demand for diversified products. The truth, however, Bangladesh is surely not the country for ordering jumbo jets or space shuttles, but it's definitely the one nation for fulfilling India's internal RMG demands. That's not all--our export of fish, sea food, and jute to leather goods to pharmaceuticals can well crate a demand among the Indian consumer market--given if India is truly willing to import.
The issue is actually about narrowing the gap of mounting deficits. That said--there is no point to believe that Indian businesses will suffer for increased imports from Bangladesh even by a few hundred million dollars more.
And that's not all, since the regional security issue has come at the fore for Myanmar's military-made-humanitarian-crisis. While calculating geopolitical and economic gains and losses, India has deliberately decided to noticeably remain on Myanmar's side regarding the Rohingya crisis. Being our historically most important ally, this was perhaps the least expected. Finally, India's one-sided politics and dominance in water sharing yet continues to breed contempt. The two countries share 54 cross-border rivers between them, but so far the countries have been able to resolve the water sharing dispute of only one river (The Ganges). And despite much diplomatic sweet-talks remain far from signing a draft interim agreement on Teesta.
However, "Confining all the unsettled issues with India in separate box, the Bangladesh PM is essentially moving towards a diplomacy of convenience. Reading between the lines, the PM's recent call to India to not panic at the China-led BRI for that matter was not purely a pro-China stance. Her government is perhaps considering integrating China with its long-term development vision."
In fact, with china apart, the new government may well appear as a game-changer in determining our new and more important diplomatic allies. India with the rest of the world knows well how China yet continues to surpass India on development and growth indicators. And who knows perhaps second biggest economy will be a better partner for realising our development goals. Only time will tell. The conformist stigma of the 'one-sided AL and India bonhomie' may well be taking a new direction may or not be on China's favour. Undeniably, India is following the shifting in our diplomatic strategies. To cut a long story short, with the national elections around the corner, the Modi government will have to embark on the soul-searching efforts to pinpoint on what counts it has done wrong to Bangladesh?
A mere counterfactual analysis will not be enough. As expected, perhaps Modi will be re-elected, but the gamut of India's bilateral ties and unsettled issues with Bangladesh will have to be reconsidered and redesigned soon. Modi or whoever is elected in India, will most likely deal with a different Sheikh Hasina in the days ahead, since the easily predictable AL--India camaraderie is ostensibly taking a new direction. In the last decade or so, the successive AL governments have given more to India than what it had actually deserved; it's likely the one--way-affair to have reached its saturated state.
It's only good for our PM to sensibly calculate her past gains and losses. And if this writer's supposition is correct, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will be tilted to the side more beneficial to materialise her government's goals. It can either be India or China. Whoever, it may be, for many observers like me it's exciting to mark our PM practicing her diplomatic manoeuvring skills. She is visibly taking the apparent risks in diplomacy and prioritising her goals for delivering results--tough task indeed.
The writer is editor-in-charge of the editorial section,
