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Qasem Soleimani: Man, myth to martyr

Published : Tuesday, 7 January, 2020 at 12:00 AM  Count : 849

Shahriar Feroze

Shahriar Feroze

Barely a week into the New Year and President Trump has once more come under the limelight for perhaps the most contentious decision of his presidential term by personally supervising the killing of Iran's most prominent key military figure - Major General Qasem Soleimani.

The killing of General Soleimani is now turning out to have complex equations for determining a decisive outcome and it is not clear whether the top man in the White House has taken the decision by assessing all the potential risks in advance. However, with Iran rolling back from its nuclear commitments let us take a closer look in the post - Soleimani period. Iran has vowed to an unforgettable revenge. Mr. Trump responded by a counter threat by targeting some 52 sensible Iranian sites. During the time of writing this piece, there wasn't a counter military response reported from Iran's end but who can tell when and how it will come.
The flashpoint goes beyond Middle East
The geopolitical tensions, as much as it seems, Iranian military including its elite Quds Force may target and strike on any US military base within its reach. It means all US military bases including its auxiliary forces in the Middle East region is under a red alert. But wait, the million dollar question here, what if Iranian military planners and strategists choose a far-off location and takes more time to execute the 'vowed revenge' operation. On that note, Iranian planners and strategists will not only target US military bases only in the Middle East. The killing has actually placed all US military bases scattered across the globe under a direct and indirect threat, however, only time will tell. Additionally, Iran can also choose to deploy lone-wolves to carry out attacks on civilian US targets, and that can happen anywhere around the circumference of the globe. Understandably, killing of General Soleimani has made the world only a more dangerous place for all American citizens in the US and abroad.

Future of the Quds force
The military wing responsible for Iran's extraterritorial operations, otherwise the famous or infamous Quds Force has now lost its most able leader - cum - commander.  It will be attention-grabbing to follow how the Quds Force will support and continue its operations with non - state actors in the Middle East. Though it is easily understandable that it will follow the late leader Soleimani's dictated path but the late leader hadn't only specialised in planning and executing covert military operations, he frequently invented newer strategies for newer countries - befriended convenient foreign political authorities to operate in their respective countries.
 
Major general Qasem Soleimani (11 March 1957 - 3 January 2020)

Major general Qasem Soleimani (11 March 1957 - 3 January 2020)

The late Soleimani was instrumental for conducting  proxy wars in collaboration with Lebanese Hezbollah,  Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, Yemeni Houthis, and Shia militias in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. It will be primarily on these grounds where the new Quds Force Commander Esmail Ghani's professional astuteness will be tested. Needs be reminded, late General Soleimani had also been an expert in terms of negotiating with rebel groups , form alliances and influence heads of governments - exceeding his expertise beyond military skills. Commander Ghani will not only have to ensure the Quds Force supremacy in the region but to expand it. More to it, he will need to devise a brilliant out-of-the-box strategy to materialise Iran's 'vowed revenge'.

Will Soleimani's killing pay back Mr. Trump?
While Mr Trump is done with Qasem Soleimani, the response at home and abroad has resulted in mixed responses. European reaction has been cautious and apprehensive. US politicians were clearly divided across party lines with some Republican politicians praising the attack, but a number of Democrat politicians thought it was thoughtless. The killing also divided the US public into two. Even if the killing does serve Mr Trump's purpose in the election year, he will be in some way accused for any imminent or distant Iranian counter-attack, either on civilian US targets or military bases installed beyond US territory.

Looking at the bigger picture, it is important to understand why Qasem Soleimani was not exclusively targeted during Bush Junior and Obama regimes, and why right now.
On one hand, Mr Trump has been reported to not seek regime change in Iran while on the other- he orders a so-called decisive assassination plan to eliminate a top Iranian General for the sake of 'avoiding war with Iran.' The US president's words and actions have created a profound confusion. His fixed smokescreen made out of contradiction, threat and ambiguity on Iran will least likely get him more votes.
    
Qasem Soleimani, the man, the myth
Of late, Qasem Soleimani has often appeared a mythical legend for countless Iranians. He has manifestly served to promote and establish the Iranian cause in the Middle East. With full agreement to his military and strategic thinking brilliance, he would have served Middle East better - if he could have struck a deal with his arch rival Saudi Arabia, for that reason, invent a power sharing formula with the Saudis and co-exist to reduce American influence in the region.

And as far as Iran is concerned, Qasem Soleimani will always remain the knight in shining armour, sacrificing his life for championing the Iranian cause. The man has already shaped a cult surrounding him - placed right next to Ayatollah Khomeini. Bright or dark, in whatever manner you describe the sharp looking hawkish man - his legacy is unprecedented in the contemporary history of Islam. Bright or dark, in whatever manner you describe Qasem Soleimani's legacy - it is unprecedented in the contemporary history of Islam. He noticeably emerged as Iran's sultan Salah ad-Din in the face of a prolonged American crusade against his country.

What's next?
The simple answer is an Iranian counter- attack in some fashion .That said - there are few days and perhaps few hours left for America to rethink and redesign its Iran Policy- and if there is one at all. For Iran, the ball is in its court and the Iranians know well how, where and when to play it.

Post Qasem Soleimani period has become tensed, uncertain and unpredictable for the Middle East and the rest of the world. Despite Mr. Trump's 'maximum pressure' Iran is back in the nuclear race even more defiant.

 Middle East minus a Qasem Soleimani only appears many times more explosive.
The writer is assistant editor,

The Daily Observer













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