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COVID-19: Pandemic could disrupt global food supply

Published : Wednesday, 1 April, 2020 at 12:00 AM  Count : 499
Md Zillur Rahaman
Md Zillur Rahaman

Md Zillur Rahaman

The World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11 declared COVID-19 a pandemic, pointing to the so many serious cases of the coronavirus illness in over 177 countries and territories around the world and the sustained risk of further global spread. The WHO said that this is not just a public health crisis, it is a crisis that will touch every sector. So, every sector and every individual must be involved in the fights. Fair food prices and distribution is a big question in global food market.

Here it is not the concern of food stock, the concerning issue is how to distribute the food supply chain among the COVID-19 affected people. Protectionist measures by national governments during the coronavirus crisis could provoke food shortages around the world, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation has warned. Harvests have been good and the outlook for staple crops is promising, but a shortage of field workers brought on by the virus crisis and a move towards protectionism-tariffs and export bans--mean problems could quickly appear in the coming weeks.

It has been observed around the world that shoppers stockpiled essential supplies to ride out the coronavirus outbreak, supermarket shelves all over the world have been left empty to the detriment of more vulnerable members of society. This is occurring despite the fact that many of the countries dealing with COVID-19 outbreaks boast stable supply chains and high levels of food security.

The World Food Programme (WFP) predicted, "Too much depends on what is not known-how long the outbreak lasts, how many countries it affects, and the type of policies governments will put in place to respond to the crisis. What is sure is that an economic downturn is to be expected at the global level, and that this is likely to trickle down to developing economies. In these contexts, a slowdown in the economy can exacerbate existing food insecurity. It limits people's ability to access nutritious food in different ways, including through reduced income or increased job insecurity."

While the food and agricultural sector should in principle be less affected than others, illness-related labour shortages, transport interruptions, quarantine measures limiting access to markets and supply chain disruptions resulting in food loss and waste could affect supply.
On the demand side, a loss of purchasing power caused by the disease could change people's eating patterns, resulting in poorer nutrition. Panic purchases of food--as those recently witnessed in countries around the world--could break the supply chain and cause localized price hikes.

Apart from the food security implications of a COVID-19-triggered economic slowdown, an extensive spread of the disease in a poorer and more food insecure country could take a heavier toll on the economy than in those currently affected. Countries with high levels of food insecurity are generally more vulnerable and less prepared for an epidemic outbreak and would likely see higher mortality rates and in addition, malnutrition could increase the vulnerability to disease.

Global outbreaks like Ebola, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARA), and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) all had negative impacts on food and nutrition security--particularly for vulnerable populations including children, women, the elderly, and the poor. For example, when Ebola began to hit Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone in 2014, domestic rice prices increased by over 30 per cent; the price of cassava, a major staple in Liberia, shot up by 150 per cent. In 2003, the SARS outbreak triggered food market panics in Chinese cities of Guangdong and Zhejiang.

While food prices have remained stable in Wuhan but in fact, all over China since the outbreak and supplies of staples, fruits, vegetables, and meats have been adequate despite sporadic reports of price hikes and shortages in isolated locations, there is little room for complacency.

Chinese farmers face a daunting planting season as they grapple with a shortage of labour, seed and fertiliser in the wake of a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus. The dismal mood has raised fears of a food shortage in the world's most populous nation after disease control measures, led by traffic restrictions, took a toll on farming activity. Chinese farms rely heavily on migrant workers and are struggling to find enough labourers after public transport was suspended to help stem the outbreak. Less than a third of local adults from 104 villages in 12 inland provinces had travelled outside their hometown for work after the lunar newyear, between 80 and 90 per cent of adults would be working elsewhere.

As hordes of worried shoppers have been stockpiling supplies of food, toilet paper and other groceries day after day amidst the coronavirus scare in America, US President had to step in to assure people that there is no shortage of food supplies and urged them to resist panic-buying.
Nobel laureate Amartya Sen's interest in famine stemmed from personal experience. As a nine-year-old boy, he witnessed the Bengal famine of 1943, in which three million people perished. This staggering loss of life was unnecessary, Sen later concluded presenting related data that there was an adequate food supply in Bengal at the time, but particular groups of people including rural landless labourers and urban service providers like barbers did not have the means to buy food as its price rose rapidly due to factors that include British military acquisition, panic buying, hoarding, and price gouging, all connected to the war in the region.

In Poverty and Famines, Sen revealed that in many cases of famine, food supplies were not significantly reduced. In Bengal, for example, food production, while down on the previous year, was higher than in previous non-famine years. Sen points to a number of social and economic factors, such as declining wages, unemployment, rising food prices, and poor food distribution, which led to starvation i.e. causes of the said famine was not the lack of food crisis, there was sufficient food supply but it was the way of proper food distribution among the destitute.

Although there is no shortage of food globally as well as nationally, panic-buying of food items at a time of crisis is nothing unusual. As far as wheat, rice, sugar and pulses are concerned, there are enough stocks available within the present India. In fact, for wheat and rice, the godowns are already overflowing with the surplus over the required emergency buffer being several times more. Against the requirement of 214 lakh tonnes of wheat and rice at the beginning of the year on January 1, 2020, the Food Corporation of India had 565.11 lakh tonnes, which means roughly two and a half times more than the essential requirement for public distribution. With the new wheat arrivals expected from the first week of April, India has certainly nothing to worry on the foodgrain front.

In spite of this buffer stock, there is a fear that the supply chain may be disrupted due to 21 days long lockdown in India. Similar cases may be prevailed in Bangladesh and this should be focused and addressed by the authority concern in right time and right place.

The writer is a First Assistant Vice President (FAVP) of Islami Bank Bangladesh Ltd (IBBL)




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