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US-Taliban peace pact: How far the peace?

Published : Saturday, 17 October, 2020 at 12:00 AM  Count : 439
Md Zillur Rahaman
Md Zillur Rahaman

Md Zillur Rahaman

The US and the Taliban have lastly signed an "agreement for bringing peace in Afghanistan" on February 29, 2020 in Qatar after more than 19 years of conflict. The US invaded Afghanistan weeks after the September 11, 2001 attacks in New York. The US and NATO allies have agreed to withdraw all troops within 14 months if the militants uphold the deal. Under the pact, the militants also agreed not to allow al-Qaeda or any other extremist group to operate in the areas they control. According to the pact, all US forces will leave by May 2021, if the Taliban fulfil their pledges on al-Qaeda, and begin talks with the government.

About 12,000 are still stationed in the country. President Trump has promised to put an end to the conflict. After the agreement, President Trump said it had been a "long and hard journey" in Afghanistan. It is time after all these years to bring our people back home. Since the US-led invasion in 2001, Afghanistan has never been as insecure as it is now.

The Taliban control more territory than at any point since the removal of their regime 19 years ago. The Afghan war has already become the longest war in US history. With the passage of time, the conflict has not only become more intense but also more complicated. The international coalition ended its combat mission in 2014, staying only to train Afghan forces. But the US continued its own, scaled-back combat operation, including air strikes.

Ahead of elections in November this year, Donald Trump has repeatedly signalled his interest in bringing home US forces as soon as possible. He has already promised to reduce the number to 5,000 by November, the lowest levels since the invasion began in 2001.

Lest we forget, the CIA gave birth to Osama Bin Laden and breastfed his organization during the 1980's to fight against former Soviet Russia. Former British Foreign Secretary, Robin Cook, told the House of Commons that Al Qaeda was unquestionably a product of Western intelligence agencies. Mr Cook explained that Al Qaeda was originally the computer database of the thousands of Islamist extremists, who were trained by the CIA and funded by the Saudis, in order to defeat the Soviet Union in Afghanistan.

According to US government figures, between 2010 to 2012, when the US for a time had more than 100,000 soldiers in the country, the cost of the war grew to almost $100 billion in a year.  As the US military shifted its focus away from offensive operations and concentrated more on training up Afghan forces, costs fell sharply. Between 2016 and 2018 annual expenditure was around $40 billion and the estimated spend for up to September 2019 is $38 billion.

According to the US Department of Defense, the total military cost in Afghanistan (from October 2001 until September 2019) was $778 billion In addition, the US State Department - along with the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and other government agencies - spent $44 billion on reconstruction projects. That brings the total cost - based on official data - to $822 billion since the war began in 2001, but it doesn't include any spending in Pakistan, which the US uses as a base for operations.

An independent study carried out by Brown University argues that the official US figures for the Afghan war are a substantial underestimate. It says that Congress has approved funds amounting to about one trillion dollars for Afghanistan as well as for Pakistan. Official data shows the US has contributed approximately $137 billion. 16% of all money spent in the last 19 years - to reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan and more than half of that ($86 billion) has gone on building up Afghan security forces, including the Afghan National Army and police force. The rest has been mainly spent on improving governance and infrastructure, as well as on economic and humanitarian aid and anti-drug initiatives.

Since the war against the Taliban began in 2001, US forces have suffered more than 2,400 deaths and around 20,660 soldiers injured in action. According to official figures, approximately 13,000 US military personnel were in Afghanistan as of December 2019, but there were also nearly 11,000 US civilians who were working as contractors. But US casualty figures are dwarfed by the loss of life among Afghan security forces and civilians. And according to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), more than 100,000 civilians have been killed or injured since it began systematically recording civilian casualties in 2009.

With American troops on their way out, many supporters of the Taliban believe that they will be able to determine what kind of society should now be created. These talks will provide the first tangible insight into the group's vision. So far, their leadership has talked both about the need to create an "Islamic government" but also an "inclusive" one. While discussions are ongoing, the Taliban are likely to suggest the formation of an "interim" government which they will form part of, though how that would work, and where it leaves the current political leadership, remains unclear.

Despite their hard-line stance in the past, Taliban officials have stressed they value international legitimacy. In the 1990s only a handful of countries recognised their regime, and they were unable to capture the entire country. Even now, despite contesting significant amounts of territory, the Taliban have not been able to retain control of any urban centre.

Issues which are expected to arise during the negotiations include women's rights; the 2004 Constitution of Afghanistan protects women's freedom of speech and education, which had been suppressed under Taliban rule of Afghanistan. Some senior Afghan officials have all stated that these rights should be protected and should not be sacrificed in a peace agreement.

The greatest risk of the US-Taliban peace pact is that the present Afghanistan government is solely depend on US for security purposes. Many things have not been clearly mentioned in the US-Taliban peace pact. What will be the future government is a big question. However, though the Taliban has shown an interest to democracy but their ultimate target is to form the Shariah law government.

On the other hand, many extreme military sub groups are active in Afghanistan and after the US-Taliban peace agreement, some insurgents fighting have been made and Taliban said they are not involved in such attacks. So, there is a pertinent question who are behind those attacks and how peace will be prevailed in Afghanistan.
 
(Disclaimer: The views of the write-up is solely personal)
The writer is a banker and freelance contributor











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