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China-India-Russia: The stumbling block of Rohingya repatriation

Published : Monday, 6 September, 2021 at 12:00 AM  Count : 1247
Md Zillur Rahaman
Four years after the beginning of Rohingya crisis, there has been no visible progress in repatriation of the refugees. Bangladesh is not getting a chance to hold bilateral talks on the issue as there is almost a civil war situation in Myanmar. It goes without saying that Myanmar is not interested in discussing the Rohingya issue. In addition, the Chinese-mediated tripartite talks have stalled and due to the military rule and the new refugee problem in Afghanistan, the crisis is not a priority for the international community in this moment. As a result, there is uncertainty about Rohingya repatriation.

The junta government is still awaiting international recognition. The ASEAN countries are divided, and the Rohingya issue is not a big issue for them either. On the other hand, the opposition of the military junta among the ASEAN countries is not very strong.

Seeing the prospect of a lasting solution to the Rohingya crisis looming, many refugees say they are looking to the future in despair. Many of these desperate refugees have been persuaded by human traffickers to embark on dangerous voyages in unsafe boats. The Rohingya crisis has increasingly raised environmental, economic, social and security concerns in Bangladesh. Like many other refugees around the world, the majority of the Rohingya population wants to return to their homeland in a safe and credible repatriation process.

Originally, the Myanmar army started killing, raping, arsonning and looting the Rohingya people in Rakhine after August 25, 2017. In this incident, more than seven lakh Rohingyas have taken refuge in Bangladesh. In all, there are now more than 1.1 million Rohingya in 34 refugee camps in Teknaf and Ukhia.
 
Myanmar army has truly carried out genocide in Rakhine. The United Nations, however, has called it genocide. Rohingyas came to Bangladesh in 1977/78 and later in the nineties. They went back then but this time there is a problem in repatriation.

Not that there is no country behind the military junta. This government has the tacit support of two big neighbours and two of Asia's most powerful countries, India and China. Myanmar is very important to China in geopolitical considerations. Especially since the launch of China's new global geo-strategic plan 'Belt and Road Initiative' in 2013, the Rakhine (Arakan) region of the Bay of Bengal in Myanmar has become one of the world's strategic lands. Large investments and geopolitical interests of China, India and Russia are the main obstacles to resolving the Rohingya issue and are prolonging it and pushing it towards an uncertain future.

According to a report released by China, its investment in the country is US$ 18 billion, which is more than double the total investment of all western countries. However, the amount of China's total investment in Myanmar is very secret for strategic reasons. In the troubled Rakhine city of Sittwe alone, the Shaye gas field gas pipeline (from Shaye to Kunming in China's Gonjeh province) has invested US$ 2.50 billion in the construction and safety of the pipeline (cantonment and paramilitary camps). Myanmar's army chief himself is in overall charge! According to various media reports, China has planned to invest US$ 18 billion in Rakhine alone.

In recent times, one of China's enemies is its neighbour India. India also has land border connections with Myanmar. Reducing India's influence in Myanmar and encircling India strategically is one of China's military policies and strategies to keep Myanmar in its hands at any cost. In addition, China's fuel oil terminal is being built at the Akyab seaport in Rakhine, with the real aim of reducing its dependence on the Malacca Strait for oil imports and challenging US and Indian sole dominance in the Indian Ocean.

India, a close friend of Bangladesh, has also sided with Myanmar's genocide because of its geopolitical interests. In fact Indian needs special cooperation from Myanmar to suppress the insurgency in Manipur, Nagaland and Mizoram. If they stand by Bangladesh without supporting Myanmar on the Rohingya issue, it will be difficult to suppress the movement of these three states.

The Siliguri Corridor, known as the 'Chicken Neck', is the only land route for transporting goods, sending military equipment and road communication to the 'Seven Sisters', of India. The 18-kilometer-wide corridor is strategically important to India, as China will desperately try to seize or close the corridor in the event of a possible Sino-Indian war. So, as an alternative, India has planned to use the Kaladan River of Myanmar to set up a long-distance 'Multimode Aial' or multidimensional communication project from Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine, through Mizoram in north-eastern India, called the Kaladan Multimoda Transport Project. India has already released US$ 500 million for the project, which is aimed at tackling the threat of a united India.

India has also moved ahead with a project to set up a special economic zone near Sittwe to get closer to Myanmar through economic diplomacy. Since North Rakhine is very important to India along the Rohingya-inhabited Indian border, any future unrest in the region could pose a problem for India. Therefore, India has sided with Myanmar for strategic reasons. Meanwhile, Indian policymakers also feel that China is encircling India. Therefore, for security and military strategic reasons, India desperate to reduce China's influence in Myanmar. As part of this effort, work has already begun to establish India-Myanmar-Thailand connectivity under Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'Act East Project'.

When the international sanctions on Myanmar were lifted in 2015, Russia took the initiative to invest in the country and sell arms. Myanmar pays attention to Russia's weapons for a variety of reasons, including the modernization of the military, the enrichment of new technologies and generations of weapons, and the enhancement of the air force's capabilities and its assistance in suppressing the independence movement.

Russia has not only focused on Myanmar's arms market, but also on financing (investment) and technology exports. To this end, Russia signed an agreement to build two nuclear power plants in Myanmar, the work of which has already started in 2013.

The Myanmar government and army cannot in any way avoid and deny the responsibility for the Rohingya genocide. The government, the military and the religious leadership are in line in the country regarding the Rohingya. For this reason, the Myanmar government has not been sincere in repatriating Rohingya from the beginning till now. The international community should try to resolve the Rohingya crisis effectively by putting pressure on the Myanmar government, as well as the UN International Court of Justice. It should be noted, however, that unless Russia, China and India exert effective pressure on Myanmar, the Rohingya problem will not be easily resolved.
The writer is a banker and
freelance columnist





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