This is very much a historical truth that in every 150 to 200 years a major shifting of power and dominance takes place. If we look back during the last 2000 years, we will find many civilizations, countries, regions, nations dominated our world one after another. No power or civilization could last for hundreds of years at the same pace. This shifting and decline of power become faster if any power abuses its supremacy, economic power, influence and becomes an oppressor.
In today's world, the USA is still engaging itself in all major issues in the world for establishing and defending their interests demonstrating their might and strength. But at the same time decline in the dominance of the mighty USA started from the beginning of this century and already it has become more visible. The rapid growth of China, and many other countries in terms of economy, armaments and political influence has made the USA unconfident in playing a major role in all key world affairs.
If we analyse the historical shreds of evidence of power shifting, then it will be found that we are living through the third great power shift in modern history. The rise of the Western world may be considered the first power shifting which took place around the 15th century after the decline of Islamic Civilization that lasted for 800 years. It consequently led to the longer-lasting political dominance of the nations of the Western world. The second shift took place during the later 19th century and that was the rise of the United States.
For the last 30 years, America has been able to uphold its superpower status without facing any challenges that never happened before in human history, except the Roman Empire that dominated the known world 2,000 years ago. Throughout this period of American dominance, the global economy has accelerated dramatically. And that expansion is driving the world towards the third great power shift of the modern age- where we are witnessing dramatic uprising of many other nations except the USA.
Some major political crises in the world also have made all the calculations of geopolitics very much hazardous. The recent humiliating complete withdrawal of the USA troops and their indirect confession of defeat in the two decades of the Afghan War have brought America in the backfoot.
In his book 'The Post-American World'FareedZakariaan Indian-American journalistshows how the collapse of communism and the Soviet empire - as well as the rise of global markets, has created a level playing field for many other countries around the world.
Zakaria says- America is also starting to lag behind other countries in education, building a competitive workforce, and fostering new energy and digital infrastructure to support those workers- all markers of long-term economic growth. He also says- America is now heading toward what he calls a 'post-American' world, in which the United States' share of the 'global pie' is much smaller - as the rest of the globe begins to catch up.
Crises and conflicts in many African nations, like Ethiopia, Somalia, Libya, Nigeria, the Sahel region of North Africa, the Yemen war, Kashmir, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South China Sea, formation of new Indo-Pacific Security Alliance of U.S., Britain, Australia (AUKUS), Iran-US, Iran-Israel, Saudi-Iran cold war, adverse climate change and above all Covid-19 pandemics are changing the world forever and playing as a catalyst in shifting of power and influence.
An adverse change in the atmosphere is now faster than ever. This climate change might also bring major changes in shifting and balance of power. Unpredictable and severe natural disasters might reshape financial and demographic mapping in the world. The resources are fixed on this planet. Most of the resources are naturally recycled. Otherwise, all the resources might be exhausted by this time. But the consumeristic, capitalistic and materialistic attitude in human behavior reckless, improper use of resources, endless greed, lack of seriousness to the consequences of environmental pollution have made our planet highly vulnerable. It was thought that as the world is becoming a tiny village day by day the arms race might lose its glamour at the same pace. But the situation is getting reversed. The world is now becoming a time bomb day by day. New developing countries are also entering into the line of the arms race. The most alarming matter is that the control of power all over the world is going under the grip of some greedy, characterless and highly corrupted people. If such types of people become the custodian of nuclear arms, then what might be the consequences is a matter of ultimate disaster.
To be honest, everyone must confess that by the end of this century demographic change in many European countries, as well as many Muslim majority and populous countries, would change the overall equation of power. Then the Muslim population would be the largest in the world. And that might be the revival of Muslim dominance all over the world.
We are also witnessing some unprecedented changes in technology, such as augmented reality, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, especially in Financial Technology (Fintech) where these are also bringing comprehensive changes in the world economy and businesses. The idea of currency, exchange of products using paper money is changing unprecedently. For example, paper money might be replaced by Bitcoin or much other virtual money. Swedish IT entrepreneur, Rick Falkvinge says, 'Bitcoin will do to banks what email did to the postal industry'. Development in Fintech might also bring more comprehensive changes in the economy. As a result, monetary policy, fiscal policy, mechanism of international trade and commerce might also gain a new shape and look in the coming days.
Power, possession, influence, dominance do not last forever. Despite that reality, the powerful person, nation and country always try to uphold their might by any means or at any cost. But changes are inevitable and no one can escape such transitions. In this changing world, the pace of changes is faster than ever. Everything is becoming unpredictable and unprecedented. So, all of us should be driven by conscience regarding this reality. All the powerful countries should be much more responsible to make our planet peaceful, environmentally sound keeping our climate free from adverse change and favorable for living creatures. Noore Alam Siddiqui, Banker & Freelancer
