Islamabad SAARC Summit hangs in balance

Pakistan's prospect of hosting the next summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) this year is bleak because of political turmoil between India and Pakistan in recent time, according to diplomatic sources.
Sources also said that several other SAARC member nations had also shared India's disappointment with Pakistan, which had been persistently blocking many initiatives by the SAARC for better connectivity within South Asia or for strengthening counter-terrorism cooperation.
However, the ensuing SAARC Summit is scheduled to take place in November 9 and 10 in Islamabad.
The main cause of friction is the ongoing unrest in Indian Kashmir. New Delhi is upset over Islamabad's 'aggressive diplomacy' on Kashmir by highlighting human rights violations being committed by Indian security forces in the disputed valley. Pakistan is also pointing its finger at the Indian Premier's comment on present political situation in Pakistan's Rawalpindi�however, it creates huge tension and pressure in South Asian countries including SAARC, Former diplomat Waliur Rahman told the Daily Observer.
"Unless there is any change taking place in near future from Pakistan side I cannot say for sure if India will attend the summit, however, Bangladesh's Prime Minister will certainly not go to Islamabad and Afghanistan is in balance also unlikely to attend the Summit. So, when two heads of states and one government chief will not join the Summit what value will the summit have for other members?" The former diplomat asked.
He said, "The new militant force of Pakistan Jaish-e-Mohammad plotted the attacked on the Indian Forces in collaboration with Pakistan Army, and not only this time they have been doing it time and again, so if the Pakistani government do not beg apology to the Indian government for their role then my perception is that the Indian Prime Minister will not go to Islamabad right now."
Although the Indian Prime Minister was expected to attend the Summit, the recent escalation of tension in the India-Pakistan relations over the unrest in Kashmir cast a shadow over his visit to Islamabad, Indian media observed.
India is irked by Pakistan's attempts to cash in on the unrest in the Kashmir Valley, following the killing of Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani in an encounter with the security forces. The Indian media claimed that Pakistan's baseless charges against India and its persistent bid to incite violence and extremism in Jammu and Kashmir and continued export of terrorism had created an atmosphere, which perhaps will not be favourable for the Indian Prime Minister to even visit Pakistan to attend the SAARC Summit.
In an attempt to counter Pakistan's move, Indian Prime Minister Modi in his Independence Day speech accused Islamabad of committing human rights violation in Balochistan.
Following the incident India's Finance Minister Arun Jaitely cancelled his SAARC ministerial conference visit to Islamabad on August 25.
New Delhi is yet to confirm if the Prime Minister will go ahead with his proposed visit, notwithstanding Pakistan's recent bid to launch a global campaign accusing India of committing atrocities on Kashmiris.
India is also irked at Pakistan for it has been persistently playing spoilsport in the South Asian nations' pursuit for regional connectivity.
"I did not see anything right now� Yes, there is problem-tension there over and the fate of a key regional summit is shrouded in uncertainty due to a seething diplomatic tiff between Pakistan and India," former diplomat Humayun Kabir said.
It may be mentioned that the then Indian Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, had travelled to Islamabad after months of tensions between the two countries. Vajpayee's meeting with President Gen Pervez Musharraf on the fringes of the summit led to a major breakthrough as the two sides agreed to resume bilateral dialogue to discuss all outstanding issues, including Kashmir.
Humayun Kabir said this time the situation appears to be different as relations between the two countries have gone from bad to worse over the past few weeks.
SAARC, which comprises eight countries - Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh and the Maldives - was established in 1985 to enhance trade and commercial ties among member states but it remains a 'hostage' to fragile ties between Pakistan and India. Even so, the multilateral forum has in the past helped the two nuclear-armed neighbours thaw their otherwise frosty relationship.
It was for the unwillingness of Pakistan That SAARC failed to see a Regional Railways and Motor Vehicle route.
During the 18th Summit of the eight-nation bloc in Kathmandu in November 2014 - SAARC leaders agreed to ink Regional Railways Agreement and Motor Vehicle Agreement for Regulation of Passenger and Cargo Vehicular Traffic but Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif maintained that his government had not yet completed internal procedure for inking the agreement. Later, Bangladesh-Bhutan-India and Nepal signed the agreement.
Not only the connectivity issue, Pakistan is yet to ratify the SAARC Convention on Mutual Assistance on Criminal Matters and is also blocking the establishment of the SAARC Terrorist Offences Monitoring Desk and SAARC Drug Offences Monitoring Desk.
"To fight against terrorism and extremism in the SAARC region these three agreements are a must and baseline but unfortunately, Pakistan did not agree to work on it," a senior official of the Foreign Ministry told the Daily Observer preferring anonymity.