The world is heading towards a certain food crisis due to the Ukraine aggression, which could affect billions of people. We are already beginning to feel the effects of which thousands of miles away in Bangladesh.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the United Nations (UN), the G-7 and other international organizations and countries have warned that food security in the world is under extreme threat due to the war in Ukraine.
The UN says people in poorer countries are suffering the most due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the cost of living in the country has already started increasing. Not only the rise in fuel prices but also the market for daily necessities has been affected seriously and there is a risk of food crisis.
Even before the war broke out in Ukraine, there was pressure on the global food system. As a result of climate change, unpredictable weather has pushed food prices to the highest level in almost a decade. Wheat prices have fallen slightly from record highs in recent days, but are still relatively high. The issue of affordability also emerged as millions of people lost their jobs in the COVID-19 epidemic.
Ukraine accounts for half of the world's sunflower oil exports. Meanwhile, the country's wheat planting season, which is about to begin, will be severely hampered by the war. There may not be enough farmers to cultivate the land, because many have already taken up arms to defend the country.
Another major problem is adequate production of fertilizer and its supply system. Achieving fertilizer production targets is essential for timely crop production. Now that Ukraine has stopped exporting from Russia due to the war, its prices have already risen significantly. Never before has it been so expensive.
The agriculture ministers of the G-7 countries have recently stated that they are "committed to doing what is necessary" to address the food crisis. But in the wake of the emerging food crisis, many countries are already leaning towards stocks to meet their domestic demand deficits. In the end the poor will have to suffer.
On the other hand, Egypt, the most populous country in the Arab world, has banned exports of wheat, flour, lentils and beans amid growing concerns over food stocks. Indonesia has also tightened restrictions on palm oil exports. In addition to cooking oil, it is also used in some packaged products such as cosmetics and chocolate.
The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recently warned that the world must take action to address "the scourge of hunger and the collapse of the global food system" following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He added that war poses a risk of far-reaching catastrophes in global food supplies that could have a devastating effect on the poor.
He called for an immediate end to the war, saying "we must do everything we can to prevent hunger and the collapse of the global food security system."
The FAO of UN has warned of a food crisis in underdeveloped countries, including rising global grain prices, over the Ukraine-Russia war. In a recent statement, the agency said the two countries jointly supply large quantities of food grains to the world. In addition, 50 countries are directly dependent on Russia-Ukraine food grains. These include many underdeveloped countries in Asia, Europe, North Africa, and Central Asia.
Russia is the largest and Ukraine is the fourth largest wheat exporters in the world. Together, the two countries supply one-third of the world's food grains, including 19 percent barley, 14 percent wheat, and 4 percent corn. More than 2.5 million Ukrainians have already been displaced since the Russian offensive began on February 24. As a result, agricultural production is being severely disrupted there.
The IMF has warned that the war could lead to global food disruptions as Ukrainian farmers are unable to grow a variety of crops, including wheat. If this war continues, there is a danger of creating 'extreme uncertainty' in food security.
There is already a food crisis in many countries of the Arab world. The crisis is expected to escalate in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Most Arab countries import wheat from both Ukraine and Russia. Wheat flour bread is one of the staple foods of the region due to its eating habits. If supplies are disrupted due to the attack in Ukraine, there is a risk of food disruption in Arab countries. This could further reduce the number of loaves of bread for people in Egypt, Lebanon, Yemen and other countries.
Disruption of wheat supplies due to the Ukraine crisis could lead to renewed protests over the food crisis in several countries in the Middle East and North Africa, and could destabilize the situation, as it has happened in Sudan before. The military coup overthrew dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019. The uprising was sparked by mass protests against the tripling of bread prices.
On the other hand, bread in Yemen is beyond the reach of ordinary people because of the war. According to the UN, the famine has killed 130,000 people in the country. According to the Yemeni government, it is difficult to buy basic food. According to the US Department of Agriculture, Russia is the largest exporter of wheat. Ukraine ranks fourth in food exports. Before the war in Ukraine, a ton of wheat cost 364. Wheat prices in the ongoing war will surpass any previous record. According to the WFP of UN, Russia provides half of the wheat they need. The Ukraine crisis could lead to supply disruptions. Syria was self-sufficient in wheat production before the civil war but now it imports.
The WFP says 12.4 million people in Syria are suffering from a food crisis. The country imported 1.5 million tonnes of wheat last year, the lion's share from Russia. On the other hand, the government has stated that the wheat stored in the Lebanese granary cannot be used for even two months.
Ukraine meets 80 percent of the country's wheat demand. But even if wheat could be imported from the United States, the crisis would not be resolved overnight. The wheat crisis includes Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria. Egypt is the largest importer of wheat in the world. They have only nine months stock.
The supply of goods to the world market from Russia has also become more difficult. Because of Western sanctions on the one hand, and travel to a war-torn country on the other, many may not want to take the risk. Russia and Ukraine serve as 'bread baskets' for countries in the Middle East, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
Now, as a result of the war, the importers from both the countries will naturally suffer. A recent report by the Agriculture Market Information System said, "Any serious disruption in production and exports from these suppliers will undoubtedly push up prices further." It will destroy the food security of millions of people and create a global food crisis."
Md Zillur Rahaman,
Banker and Columnist
