If I was to ask you, why would you wage a war and on what grounds? Most of you would surely answer, 'I would never wage a war against anyone or any country. War is not a solution, and I believe in peace...' right? As a commoner, it is comparatively easy to jump to a conclusion, but it is not the same in case of political and war leaders. Given their public mandate, authority, they plan and think differently perched on gigantic ambitions.
However, if the ambition is anyhow more personal compared to the greater interest for the nation, it is most likely to fail. History has repeatedly confirmed that. And not to forget, since time immemorial the thinnest red line have always existed between ambition and greed. The world is divided over the Russian military adventure in Ukraine. And as the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its second phase it is turning increasingly tricky to predict - how the war would end? But so far the war has surely delivered unexpected as well as unprecedented outcomes.
Fast heading towards the end of its second month the world is still divided on who is calling the shots in the Ukraine War? Welcome to disagree - Russia is seemingly calling half of the shots at least. Way back in March 12, I wrote whether Russia was re-defining the nature of tactical warfare. Mr Putin's military men have not only changed tactics and strategies, but now changed the entire war plan by occupying one after another key city of Eastern Ukraine.
Many here predicted Russians would be defeated since Kiev hadn't fallen to Russian hands, but strategies or tactics change with a war's reality. And none understands that well than the ones who had endured and defeated the conquerors of "Operation Barbarossa". However, the Russian plan 'B' also makes it blurry, whether it will restrict the invasion within Eastern Ukraine or occupy the entire country in phases. The military situation is strikingly similar to a chess game as moves are being made on the nature of fluctuating fortunes - make the most out of every move.
The Russian war machine has surely suffered a series of unexpected setbacks over the past 50 days, but when I compare Mr Putin's military ambitions to diplomatic and regional ambitions, he is manifestly tightening the noose around Mr Zelensky's neck. The energy and food cards Mr Putin is playing in the ongoing war only exposes vulnerability and complacency of Europe's energy policy makers , but at the same time more meaningful in terms of how and when to make the most out of an energy crisis.
The Europeans were surely not prepared to convert hundreds of millions of Euros to Russian roubles thus, giving a boost to the Russian economy. In the beginning of the war Americans teasingly termed the Russian Rouble to rubble, now the currency is fast turning into rapture. Nevertheless, nowadays I compare this war to a complete business package consisting of territorial, economic, geo-political, diplomatic, energy and military business deals. And the Russian political leadership has seemingly designed the package by guaranteeing a breakeven.
Then there is another side of the war, how Ukraine's allies are responding to it? NATO, EU and Mr Zelinsky's political leadership in war-torn Ukraine never appeared so markedly divisive in the last 50 days. I was expecting USA, NATO and the EU to send out a common message: Even if it takes longer, Ukraine will be freed.
Now if you cautiously follow their respective messages delivered in the past month, most of them are supported by a strong anti-Russian sentiment and rhetoric, but little about Ukraine's political future and independence. Since all remarks and statements are easily available in the free-flowing public domain blessed by the internet, there is no point quoting and explaining them.
With the war in progression, ultimately it will be the Ukrainian political leadership to decide the fate of Ukraine, and they will have to negotiate more with Kremlin than any other part of the world. A potential meeting is on cards, and if a settlement is sealed any time soon, we can only assume the terms and conditions to be dictated by Kremlin. Can Mr Zelinsky make the most out of what he is offered?
By now enough arms and aid packages have been promised, and some delivered. Also the US senate has recently passed a $ 40 billion aid package for the Ukrainians. I would have been happier if it would have passed a bill one-twentieth of the amount for the forcibly displaced Rohingyas that Bangladesh is sheltering at huge economic, environmental and security costs. However, this piece is not intended to draw comparisons between oppressed and forcibly displaced people and refugees. But aid packages, no matter how immensely huge, will not liberate Ukraine or defeat Mr Putin in the long run.
Ranging from food, energy, humanitarian to military issues, altogether the Ukraine War is probably the dawn of the most complex era of military conflicts, where sophisticated calculations on wider and long-term losses and gains have become a pre-condition prior launching a war. The military invasion here is just one of the key tools to determine land or territorial occupation. To finish with, what is fascinating right now is how the Russians are adapting to fast changing realities of the Ukraine War. In the battle ground strategies and objectives have changed. The badly damaged Russian economy is also fast adapting to embargos and shortage of imported goods.
The common Russians are surely feeling the pinch of more than 5, 000 or so sanctions imposed on them, but life is moving on. And it is moving on without Coca-Cola, McDonald's, and Apple and Zara products. Local brands now have a chance to replace these western brands. A queer feeling that often overwhelms me is perhaps Mr Putin had launched the war by envisioning the worst case scenario in advance.
I wouldn't conclude by saying, he is prepared for the worst and expecting the best. He seems rather like prepared for the worst but making the most out of what is coming his way.
He has done well so far.
The writer is assistant editor,
the Daily Observer
