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 Can Xi Jinping steer China to it’s goal?

Published : Tuesday, 25 October, 2022 at 12:00 AM  Count : 276
Md Momtazur Rahman
Md Momtazur Rahman

Md Momtazur Rahman

The highly anticipated 20th Congress of China's ruling Communist Party, which was held on the 16th October of this year, is being widely discussed and evaluated inside and outside the country. According to Chinese government assessments, Xi Jinping's third term as president is set to take new steps towards global leadership. Beijing has expressed its ambition to become the world's top leadership country through continuous reforms in all areas - practices of knowledge and science, defense capabilities, economic progress, and global leadership.

Apart from these aspects, there are different assessments of global situation analysts. According to an assessment, Xi Jinping has reversed the course of progress that China embarked on liberal policies, global coordination and joint leadership during Deng Xiaoping's era of reform. It has fallen into the trap of non-cooperation of the West in the struggle for global dominance and an alternative world order before it has acquired enough capacity.

Apparently, Western firms are pulling investment out of China. China's access to Western technology is closing. Western goods markets for China are also shrinking. Above all, the West has begun to lay hands on China's economic and strategic spheres of influence. The combined effect of this is slowing down the growth of the Chinese economy. The prediction of China becoming the world's number 1 economy in 2030 is in doubt whether it will be possible in 2035 or not.

China is losing markets for strategic armaments and IT equipment due to Western technological restrictions that cannot make quality semiconductors and chips. Unemployment and underemployment rates in China are rising due to the withdrawal of Western capital. Most of the projects that China invested in to build global supply lines under Xi Jinping's priority project, the Route and Belt Initiative, are in disrepair or economically unprofitable.

At the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping revealed his plan to build a modern socialist China over the next five years and beyond. Xi said the theme of this year's congress is to uphold the banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics, implement the socialist thought with Chinese characteristics for a new era through full integration, carry forward the party's founding spirit, remain confident and gain strength, and uphold the basic principles.

Xi also explained what the mission and work of the CPC will be in the new journey of the new era. According to this interpretation, the CPC will mainly implement socialist modernization from 2020 to 2035, and will work to transform China into a prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced and modern socialist country from 2035 to the middle of this century. Xi emphasized the characteristics of Chinese modernization, which contained elements that would be a common model for the modernization process of all countries.

Chinese analysts say the US trade war against China's science and technology industry, as well as provocation and intervention on the Taiwan issue, have occurred over the past decade. For this reason, Xi emphasized China's national security system, modernization of power and protection of social stability. Chinese authorities are aiming to make the country a leading economic and technological power by 2049. The Chinese don't just want to be a superpower-they believe they deserve to be single, destined to lead the world.

Can China reach this ambitious goal? Statistically, China is already on the threshold of the high-income club, with an average per capita income of $12,555 in 2021. Chinese authorities, however, vehemently reject the middle-income trap theory. But the severe headaches China's economy is increasingly facing are clear. The pandemic in 2020 has exacerbated the structural deficiencies evident before the corona virus outbreak.

According to analysis report on China, a shrinking workforce due to a rapidly growing aging population will also reduce China's future growth prospects. While China is performing well on many measures of innovation, adding quality as well will be critical to Chinese Communist Party's ambitions.

A report has analyzed that "the Chinese government's policy is to balance the economy, free it from a predominantly export-driven model, expand cutting-edge technology, tap the huge domestic market and make the country more self-sufficient". The report also revealed, "Domestic consumption in China remains weak, while Chinese exports have reached record levels  to generous state support for manufacturing.

Many analysts prefer to focus on past performance when considering China's future path. But the golden era of rapid Chinese economic growth is over and the country's further progress is not guaranteed. This is because the deep structural reforms required may be politically difficult. Under Xi Jinping, the state's role in the economy has tightened and will stifle productivity growth.

By the end of 2021, China's share of the global economy will exceed 18 percent, and it will continue to grow. However, a recent analysis by the IMF shows that China's slowdown is increasing, which is also affecting the global economy. Although the Chinese currency, the yuan, is one of the reserve currencies, it has not been able to challenge the dominance of the US dollar.

Another major challenge to China's potential as a driving engine of global development is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which Xi Jinping once called the 'project of the century'. Investing in the project has left Chinese banks with a mountain of non-performing loans and is now at risk of spiraling into a series of controversies and a debt crisis.

It is true that Chinese-financed construction has provided some much-needed infrastructure in many developing countries. We are still hearing Sri Lanka's cry. Several 'white elephants' and debt piles have severely damaged China's image as a worthy and reliable partner in the Global Economy. The big question now is���how much Beijing will participate in the multilateral debt relief efforts of BRI recipient countries.Russia's invasion of Ukraine and lip service to issues of 'sovereignty' and 'territorial integrity' have severely eroded Beijing's credibility. So far, China seems to shy away from assuming global responsibilities with its status.
The writer is professor of English at IUBAT-International University of Business Agriculture and Technology, Dhaka



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