Achieving Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 well-nigh impossible

The Integrated Power and Energy Sector Master Plan (IPESMP) outlines Bangladeshs goal to achieve net-zero emissions (NZS) of energy-based greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 2050. However, the document acknowledges the challenges posed by the countrys current economic development stage and the difficulty of the expected path to meet the NZS target. As a result, the year for Bangladesh to reach net-zero emissions is suggested to be 2070 or later.

Analyzing all related data, the IPESMP said that energy-related CO2 emissions will increase from 57 megatons of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2012 to 170 MtCO2e in 2030. For methane, only natural gas leakage along the supply chain, especially in the distribution system, is considered. It is assumed 0.1 percent of natural gas sales volume leaks out from the system. Methane emissions will slightly increase from 0.5 MtCO2e in 2012 to 0.7 MtCO2e in 2030. However, total GHG emissions in 2030 are estimated to be 299 MtCO2e.

"In realizing Vision 2041, whereby Bangladesh will achieve high-income country status by 2041, energy will play a vital role in driving development," the report said. "Energy demand will expand 3.75-fold from now until 2050, while electricity demand will rise by 7.82-fold, indicating electricity will be the main energy source powering economic growth. Simultaneously, along with global climate change movements, Bangladesh aims to build a low-carbon society. Pursuing these twin objectives of modernization and sustainability will pose a major challenge."

"To address the issue, Bangladesh declared at the 2021 COP26 held in Glasgow, UK that the country will strive to achieve an up to 40 per cent clean energy use in its power generation mix, this Master Plan aims to create a low-carbon economy with secure and affordable energy supply. We reviewed the existing long-term energy plans and practicable development roadmap, to establish a low carbon/decarbonized society," State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid said.

The Integrated Power and Energy Sector Master Plan (IPESMP) outlines several crucial issues to be addressed in the implementation of the Master Plan. These include:

1. Re-confirming the Clean Energy Target: Ensuring a commitment to clean energy targets, which likely involves a focus on renewable and low-carbon energy sources. 2. Conducting studies on carbon dioxide emissions associated with energy production and consumption to understand and mitigate environmental impacts. 3. Investigating and managing methane emissions from the gas distribution system to address environmental concerns. 4. Enhancing efforts to improve energy efficiency and promoting conservation measures to optimize energy use. 5. Maximizing the Benefits of Indigenous Conventional and Renewable Resources with efficient utilization of both conventional and renewable energy resources that are locally available. 6. Building organizational capacity and developing skilled human resources to effectively implement the Master Plan. 7. Preparing Market Design and Policy Supports for Clean Energy Development by establishing market structures and policies that support the development of clean energy solutions. 8. Focusing on the safety and reliability of nuclear power generation, indicating a role for nuclear energy in the energy mix. 9. Embracing new and innovative technologies to diversify the energy portfolio and enhancing sustainability. 10. Developing a roadmap to guide the introduction of low-carbon technologies and promote a transition to a cleaner energy landscape.

"All these issues are related with many "ifs" and "buts". It is very challenging for a country like Bangladesh to produce 40 per cent of its total energy from renewable sources in the next 27 years, however,  IPESMP rightly said that the target year for the Bangladesh economy to reach net zero emissions will be 2070 or after," energy expert, former adviser to caretaker government Dr M Tamim said.

He said Bangladeshs energy and power sector is dependent on imports. Fuel, coal, LNG, LPG and equipment of green or clean energy is very much imported item, so we need huge foreign currency to meet the all bills, which now stands at around $US 6 to 7 billion dollar if we start to pay the bills of Rooppur nuclear power plant then what else could we be doing for this sector is a million dollar question, he said.

"The plan considers a carbon-neutral economic perspective though it is not fully reflected in operational issues," said the Research fellow Khondoker Mozzeam Hossain of the Center for Policy Dialogue.

"It is crucial to review the IEPMP to understand how it will achieve the clean energy targets amid contemporary challenges and strategies to be adopted for the power and energy sector keeping in mind the issue of energy security in the coming years," CPD said.

"Bangladesh is pushing forward its economic growth aggressively under Vision 2041 aiming to achieve a high-income country status by its 70th anniversary of independence. Bangladesh seeks to expand its economy by more than fivefold from now.

Three cases are examined for the GDP projection, based on the projections of the Perspective Plan 2041, which seeks optimistic economic growth to achieve a high-income country status by 2041 accelerating development. It said that the population of Bangladesh will grow from 168 million in 2020 to 191 million in 2030, 210 million in 2041, and 214 million in 2050 at a rate of 0.9 per cent per annum on average but decelerating gradually.

According to the IEPMP, Bangladeshs energy demand will stand at 71,000 MW in 2050, to meet the demand, the country will have to produce around 38,000 MW of electricity from renewable sources; 20, 000 MW from wind, 6,000 MW from the solar grid and 2,000 MW from rooftop solar panels to keep its promise to produce 40 per cent from green/clean fuel. However, the Power Division now produces around 700 to 800 MW from renewable sources.

"According to the state Minister of Power Division we need around $US 170 billion to address the climate transition, and there is a global commitment to provide $US800 million for the transition, so money and land is also a great challenging issue here," Dr Tamim said.