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How Houthis have become a regional threat

Published : Thursday, 28 December, 2023 at 12:00 AM  Count : 1244
Rajeev Ahmed
In geopolitics, theories often appear as guiding principles, trying to explain the complex dynamics of international relations and power structures. Among these, the Theory of Hegemonic Stability has long held sway, suggesting that a singular world order, led by a dominant superpower, is essential for keeping global order and stability. This theory, deeply rooted in the political chessboard of nations, found its most profound embodiment in the post-Cold War era with the United States at the helm, signifying a unipolar world order.

However, the collapse of the Soviet Bloc, which once balanced the scales, unravelled a series of events that gradually exposed the flaws and contradictions inherent in this theory. As we journeyed through the early decades of the 21st century, it became increasingly clear that this United States-led order, often heralded by Western European allies, was steering the world not towards unassailable peace but towards a precipice of escalating regional conflicts. These conflicts, spanning from Europe to the Middle East and stretching across the Indian and Pacific Oceans, have ominously nudged the world towards the brink of a third world war.

In response  to what is perceived as a United States-led and Western European-supported global treasure hunt monopoly, several nations have turned to the theory of offensive realism to shield their interests and sovereignty. Offensive realism is a theory in international relations suggesting that states must always seek power and act aggressively to survive in an inherently anarchic international system. This strategic shift, seen in countries like Iran, North Korea, Russia, China, and Syria, has shown a level of success in counterbalancing the hegemonic aspirations. More recently, lesser-explored groups like Yemens Houthis and various Palestinian resistance forces have begun to employ the tenets of offensive realism, looking to leverage it for their gains.

The Houthi movement, or Ansar Allah, in Yemen, represents a particularly intriguing case study in this geopolitical shift. Their actions, notably disrupting shipping in the Red Sea, have elicited a significant response from the United States, including the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian. In this article, we delve into the complexities of the Houthi movement, exploring its strategies, motivations, and the broader implications of its actions in the volatile tapestry of global politics. As we unpack the layers of this less-studied group, we aim to provide a nuanced analysis of how the Ansar Allah movement is reshaping regional dynamics and challenging established geopolitical theories.

The Houthi movement, formally known as Ansar Allah, originated in the early 1990s in northern Yemen, evolving from a theological movement into a formidable political force. Initially, it was a response to perceived marginalisation of the Zaidi Shia Muslim community, advocating for greater autonomy in the Saada Governorate. Their dissent was amplified by the deepening socio-economic disparities and political instability in Yemen, conditions that were worsened after the 2011 Arab Spring.

By 2014, the Houthis had capitalised on widespread discontent, taking control of Sanaa, Yemens capital, and eventually leading to the ongoing civil war. This conflict escalated dramatically with the intervention of a Saudi-led coalition, supported by the United States, in 2015. The coalitions objective was to restore the internationally recognised government, ousted by the Houthis.

The relentless conflict, marked by airstrikes and ground battles, plunged Yemen into a humanitarian crisis, characterised by widespread famine and a crippling economic blockade. Despite these adversities, the Houthi movement demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability. They evolved into a battle-hardened force, employing asymmetric warfare tactics, and leveraging alliances, notably with Iran, to bolster their military capabilities.

Their strategic use of drone and missile attacks on Saudi infrastructure, and their ability to disrupt critical shipping lanes in the Red Sea, highlight their growing sophistication and assertiveness. The Houthis transition from a local insurgent group to a significant regional actor underscores the complex interplay of local grievances, regional politics, and international power dynamics.

However, the Houthis have recently garnered significant international attention by asserting themselves as active participants in the escalating conflict between Israel and Gaza. Their initial foray involved launching an array of loitering munitions, ballistic, and cruise missiles towards Israel. This bold move was soon followed by a strategic blockade, targeting Israeli-owned or operated vessels navigating through the Red Sea. The groups declaration of a complete closure of the shipping route to Eilats port marked a significant escalation, profoundly impacting regional trade and military dynamics.

This manoeuvre by the Houthis has precipitated a crisis in the United States hegemonic status. Americas foremost objective has been to contain or limit the Israel-Palestine conflict within the boundary of Gaza, preventing its escalation into a full-fledged regional war. Nevertheless, the engagement of the Houthi faction, in conjunction with Hezbollahs involvement, escalates the dispute into a broader regional conflict. This escalation, however, is tempered by overt and covert multi-tiered diplomatic initiatives involving Qatar, a few other Middle Eastern nations, and the United States-Israel alliance. Additionally, international human rights and aid organisations exert pressure to further limit the conflict within Gaza boundary.

In response, the United States announced the formation of a multinational naval task force in the Red Sea. Despite expectations of broad Arab support, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain emerged as the sole Arab participant.On the other hand, the operation initially included multiple countries such as the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, and Spain. However, some of the countries now have opted not to participate. For instance, Spain was initially mentioned by the United States as a member of its coalition, but Spain later clarified it was not taking part in a mission that did not have the backing of either NATO or the EU. Germany also has similar qualms. The countrys military needs a mandatefrom the parliament to take part, as the coalition includes the potential use of force but does not fall under the auspices of the EU, NATO, or the United Nations.This limited coalition underscores the challenges facing United States diplomacy and its waning influence in orchestrating regional alliances.

As diplomatic efforts by the United States to contain the conflict continue to falter, it becomes increasingly imperative for the United States to reconsider its unconditional support for Israel. The current trajectory, marked by rampant violence, threatens to undermine the very foundations of international institutions that uphold United States hegemonic moral. Should this support persist unchecked, there is a real risk that these institutions, and the global order they represent, could collapse sooner than anticipated, akin to a house of cards. Therefore, the onus falls heavily on the United States to exert pressure on Israel to de-escalate tensions. Failing to do so not only perpetuate the conflict but also risks eroding the global leadership role the United States has long sought to maintain in the fields of human rights, democracy and freedom. However, many have started to believe that these fields now symbolise the American double/triple standards and hypocrisy on the stage of geopolitics.

The writer is a Geopolitical Analyst, Strategic Thinker and Editor at geopolits.com


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