Friday | 10 January 2025 | Reg No- 06
বাংলা
   
Friday | 10 January 2025 | Epaper

Tough times lie ahead for our new government

Published : Tuesday, 9 January, 2024 at 12:00 AM  Count : 414
Md Safiul Alam Prodhan
The twelfth parliamentary election was held with the exclusion of almost one-third of the registered political parties, including the main opposition BNP. The ruling Awami League and its allies and partners were the main competitors in this election. As the BNP did not participate in the elections, there was no strong rival political party to challenge the Awami League in this election. Barring a few seats, the main contest was between the Awami League-nominated candidate and the Awami League-supported independent candidates. As a result, the Awami League is going to sit in power again regardless of the victory or defeat of some candidates in the election, which was very predictable. However, even if the government is formed, the party faces two-pronged political and economic challenges.

First of all, the new government will have to face two political challenges in the post-election period. One of them is internal, and another is international. The ruling Awami League will have to take up the challenge of countering the opposition movement after the elections. Moreover, the conflict and grouping that is going on within the Awami League around the election, especially the problem that has arisen between independent and nominated candidates, should also be resolved, and order should be restored in the party.

At the same time, will the government that will be formed through the election of the twelfth national parliament be accepted in the international arena? Thats the question. The fact that the United States view of the Sheikh Hasina-led government is not entirely positive has been made clear through several of their actions. The United States has been calling to ensure that the elections are fair, credible, and participatory. The US State Department also announced visa restrictions for those who seek to obstruct fair elections.

Meanwhile, Awami League president Sheikh Hasina has said several times that the United States may not want to see me in power again. Recently, in an interview given to the international media Deutsche Welle, the former foreign secretary Touhid Hossain also admitted the hostile relationship with the United States and the West. According to him, normalizing relations with the West will be the biggest challenge for the new government if the Awami League comes to power through new elections. One of the reasons for this is that our main export markets are Europe and America. After the United States, the European Union has also taken a strict stand on the issue of elections. In mid-December, two members of the European Commission wrote to the Vice President of the Commission, urging that Europe also impose a visa restriction on those who obstruct fair elections and violate human rights in Bangladesh.

In addition to these political challenges, the new government faces several economic challenges. According to economists, the most difficult challenge for the government in 2024 will be controlling inflation. According to BBS calculations, inflation in 2022 was 7.6 percent, and in 2023 it increased to 9.7 percent. In July-August 2023, the food inflation rate was over 12 percent. The effect of this has already had a severe impact on the general public. The Awami League government has announced plans to reduce inflation in its election manifesto. If this inflation continues, the lives of low-income people will become more miserable. In this case, the government should bring inflation under control through the coordination of monetary policy, fiscal policy, and social security programs. If necessary, the import duty should be reduced so that the cost of importing goods is reduced.

Resolving the dollar crisis and controlling prices is another major economic challenge for the new government. The dollar crisis and its rising prices had affected the economic sector of Bangladesh in the last year. According to the central banks calculations, the dollar has appreciated more than 20 percent against the taka in the last one and a half years since June 1, 2022. Due to the rise in dollar value, import costs have increased, which has affected the production of the country. Due to the importation of goods at high prices, people have to pay more money to buy them. Economist Dr. Atiur Rahman stressed the importance of bringing exchange rates into a stable system like interest rates. So that the exchange rate volatility will decrease in the future. The government should take strict action in this regard.

Another big challenge for the new government is dealing with the reserve crisis. In the last year, the value of reserves in Bangladesh had decreased continuously. According to Bangladesh Bank, the amount of reserves in January was 32.22 billion dollars, which fell to 21 billion dollars in December. However, a week ago, the reserves increased slightly due to the addition of dollars from other sources, including loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

One of the reasons for such a situation could be that the export earnings are not fully returned to the country, which has already been published in the newspaper. In addition, due to overinvoicing (showing a higher price than the actual price of a product), a large amount of defaulted loans from banks, and sending remittances in an informal way, a lot of money is being smuggled out of the country. In this case, the central bank and other institutions in charge of monitoring should be more strict. People all over the country are in the swing of worries and possibilities, with hopes and expectations about the direction the country will go after the elections. No one can say right now whether the political and economic situation after the election will bring relief to the normal lives of the people or burden them with conflict and crisis. But we dream of a new potential in Bangladesh.

The writer is a Lecturer in the Department of Political Science, Notre Dame College, Dhaka



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