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Myanmar conflict puts Bangladesh at risk

Published : Monday, 18 March, 2024 at 12:00 AM  Count : 152
Sauid Ahmed Khan
Worldwide, we are witnessing a dramatic increase in the arms race among nations and other non-state entities.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Hamas-Israel conflict, Iran-Pakistan limited war, and the three-year-long intensive war between the Tatmadaw and the revolutionary forces in Myanmar-all these are making the world more unstable and economically backward. The dollar crisis is rising, inflation is soaring, and the worldwide warlike situation is putting a strain on the world economy. On 1 February 2021, the Myanmar military launched a coup against the civilian government, declaring the results of the November 2020 general election invalid.

Since the Three Brotherhood Alliance (AA, MNDAA, TNLA) launched Operation 1027 on October 27, 2023, it has spread across the half areas of Myanmar, including Shan, Kachin, Kayin, Kayah, Sagaing, Bago, Chin, and Rakhine states. On November 13, 2023, Arakan Army (AA) attacked Rakhine. So far, due to conflict in Rakhine, Amnesty International reported that the violence since 27 October had reportedly killed at least 378 civilians, injured 505 more, and displaced more than 660,000 people (as of 15 December, 2023), adding to the nearly two million already displaced across the country. AA is mainly controlling the Northwestern part of Rakhine, which is close to the Bangladesh border.

The conflict in Myanmars Rakhine state has far-reaching implications, not only for Myanmar but also for its neighboring countries, particularly Bangladesh. As tensions escalate and violence spills over borders, Bangladesh finds itself in a precarious position, grappling with the humanitarian fallout of the crisis while facing limitations in its capacity to provide aid and shelter.

Bangladesh has a history of providing refuge to those fleeing conflict and persecution, exemplified by its response to the Rohingya crisis in 2017 when it opened its borders to around 742,000 Rohingyas-half of them are children-within a few months. However, the current situation presents a different challenge. While Bangladesh adheres to principles of "non-interference" and "peaceful coexistence," it is wary of being drawn into another wave of displacement, particularly as the clash between the Arakan Army and the Tatmadaw is deemed an internal affair of Myanmar.


The influx of refugees from Myanmar, including Rohingyas and other ethnic communities, poses significant challenges for Bangladesh, which is already burdened with over 1.2 million Rohingya refugees, or as Bangladesh calls them, Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMNs). With the escalation of the conflict, there is a looming possibility of additional refugees seeking shelter across the border. Bangladeshs capacity to absorb more refugees is limited, and the government must maintain stringent border control measures to manage the situation effectively.

Moreover, the prolonged civil conflict in Myanmar complicates the prospects of repatriating Rohingya refugees.

 As international attention shifts away from the crisis, the focus on facilitating the safe return of Rohingyas diminishes, leaving them in a state of uncertainty and vulnerability. The resolution of the conflict in Myanmar is crucial not only for restoring stability within the country but also for addressing the plight of Rohingya refugees and enabling their safe return to their homeland.

In light of these challenges, Bangladesh swiftly bolstered its border security measures. Additional border guards were deployed to fortify defenses and prevent any unauthorized entry or influx. This proactive approach effectively deterred unlawful intrusions.Bangladesh finds itself navigating a delicate diplomatic balance.

While it upholds its humanitarian principles by providing temporary shelter to individuals fleeing conflict, it also recognizes the need to protect its borders and effectively manage the influx of refugees. The decision to temporarily host 330 Myanmar security forces seeking refuge reflects Bangladeshs commitment to international norms, particularly under the Geneva Convention, while also emphasizing the temporary nature of their stay and the intention to facilitate their return to Myanmar.

Simultaneously, Bangladesh took diplomatic steps by summoning Myanmars envoy in Dhaka to seek clarity on their officials plans and to express concern over the spillage of Myanmars internal conflict. As a precautionary measure, Bangladesh evacuated its consulate in Sittwe due to security apprehensions while maintaining open channels of communication with the Myanmar government. Through sustained bilateral discussions, Bangladesh facilitated the repatriation of intruders to Myanmar, culminating in the handover at Naval Jetty in Coxs Bazaar district on February 15, 2024.

However, Bangladeshs stance on providing the temporary stay toMyanmar security forces has sparked debate and raised questions about its broader implications. Critics argue that Bangladeshs acceptance of Myanmar security forces question the consistency of Bangladeshs approach to the crisis and highlight the need for a comprehensive strategy to address the multifaceted challenges posed by the conflict in Myanmar.

In addition to managing the conflicts humanitarian fallout, Bangladesh must also navigate its diplomatic relations with various stakeholders involved in the crisis, including the Myanmar. Besides, as a part of Track II diplomacy, Arakan Army and the National Unity Government (NUG) of Myanmar can be contacted. Engaging in dialogue with these parties is essential for fostering peace and stability in the region and addressing the root causes of the conflict.

In conclusion, the conflict in Myanmars Rakhine state underscores the complex interplay of internal dynamics and regional implications, with Bangladesh facing the brunt of the humanitarian fallout. As the crisis continues to unfold, Bangladesh must navigate a delicate balance between upholding its humanitarian principles, protecting its borders, and engaging in diplomatic efforts to address the root causes of the conflict. Only through concerted international cooperation and a comprehensive approach can the plight of Rohingya refugees be addressed and a lasting solution to the crisis in Myanmar be achieved.

The writer is a Freelance Contributor



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