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The mysterious death of Ebrahim Raisi: Accident or Assassination?

Published : Friday, 24 May, 2024 at 12:00 AM  Count : 683
AR Sumon
Ebrahim Raisi, the President of Iran, was one of the most significant world leaders in todays geopolitical landscape. His importance and involvement in contemporary issues were notable. The mysterious circumstances surrounding his helicopter crash and death raise many questions. The most crucial is whether his death was an accident or an assassination. Who benefits and who suffers from his death? These questions need answers.

Iran and Azerbaijan are enemies, while Israel and Azerbaijan are allies, with Mossad, Israels notorious intelligence agency, active in Azerbaijan. Despite Irans strong internal security, Mossad has carried out successful missions to assassinate key figures in Iran, especially those linked to the nuclear program. President Raisi was notably anti-American and anti-Israeli, making him a prime target for Israel.

After Hamas attacked Israeli territory on October 7, 2023, Israel vowed to eliminate Hamas and began a campaign in Gaza. At the same time, Iran mobilized its proxy forces, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, to pressure Israel from behind the scenes. Theres also speculation that Iran has developed a nuclear bomb, waiting for the right moment to reveal it. Thus, Raisi was likely a top target for Israel and its allies.

Internal Iranian politics might also explain Raisis death. His election as president was influenced by Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei, positioning Raisi as a potential successor. Raisi, although not politically popular, had strong religious support. After the helicopter crash, survivors reportedly radioed for help, but it took rescuers 17 hours to locate them, a task surprisingly completed by Turkish drones instead of Irans advanced ones.

Irans air fleet includes about nine types of helicopters, with the Russian-made Mi-17 being particularly notable. These helicopters can be used for passenger transport and rescue operations. They can fly at altitudes of 4,000 to 4,500 meters at speeds of 240 to 250 km/h. Without refuelling, they have a range of up to 465 km and are capable of firing missiles if necessary. Additionally, they are equipped with comprehensive navigation systems. Yet, Raisi was placed in an outdated helicopter from the 1960s.


Despite having such a modern helicopter, why is the president placed in an old helicopter from the 60s, when every important person in Iran is a high-value target of enemy countries?

Irans meteorological department failed or could not provide accurate weather information. Those in charge of the Presidents security failed or pretended to fail to ensure the Presidents security. How safe was it for the president to fly helicopters in such hostile weather in mountainous areas where the mountains are tall up to 3000 meters?

Who benefits from Raisis death? Likely, Israel and its allies, along with Raisis political opponents. Raisi was seen as a likely successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. However, it is also believed that Ali Khameneis son, Mojtaba Khamenei, an Islamic cleric, is seen as a contender for the title. Mojtabas chances of succeeding his father have gained momentum in recent months. Over the past six months, factions within the clerical regime have actively promoted Mojtaba as a potential candidate for Supreme Leadership. State media have begun portraying him as a suitable candidate, with pro-regime activists distributing materials praising him alongside his father. These efforts may be tied to the upcoming election for the Assembly of Experts, set for March 2024.

Mojtaba holds significant influence within the political sphere and exercises considerable control over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which was responsible for guarding the president during Irans presidential tour to Azerbaijan. For Mojtaba, it appears that Raisi was the primary obstacle to attaining the highest position in Iran.

In my opinion, if Mossad is found responsible for Raisis death during the investigation, Iran will neither entirely blame Mossad nor entirely blame anyone else, even if it was just an accident or internal political conflict. They will likely adopt a middle-ground stance to maintain pressure on Israel, manage internal dissatisfaction, and send a clear message to Raisis opponents. I don believe Iran currently has the capacity for full-scale conflict due to financial constraints. At this point, Iran aims to avoid destabilizing its political situation and will likely prolong the investigation. Once the situation is stable, they may take action against those responsible if its determined to be a murder rather than an accident.

The writer is Senior Photojournalist & Feature writer at The Daily Observer


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