PARIS, Aug 20: Ukraine's military incursion into Russia, a first in the two-year-old war, has handed Kyiv the initiative on the battlefield, but its outcome remains highly uncertain, analysts say.
Ukraine surprised everybody, including its own allies, when it sent troops over the border on August 6 two-and-half years after Russia launched its invasion, and has made claims of new gains almost daily.
The incursion has covered 1,250 square kilometres (482 square miles) so far, according to Ukraine, while Russia says it has contained the Ukrainian attack.
Responding to requests from allies, Ukraine has stated the objectives of its attack, saying that it did not seek to "occupy" Russian territory, but was looking to raise pressure on Russia ahead of any future negotiations.
"It's a gamble, with the aim of maybe swapping the conquered areas against Ukrainian territory elsewhere," Pierre Razoux, Academic and Research Director at the FMES strategic think tank, told AFP.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that the incursion was achieving Kyiv's objectives, which officials have previously said include stretching Russian forces, destroying Russian military equipment, creating a "buffer zone" and bringing the war "closer" to an end on "fair" terms.
Ukraine had to limit the size of the military contingent it sent into Russia, as most of its army's potential is tied up on the main front.
Razoux said Ukraine had sent "a few mobile brigades" and some motorised units featuring mostly western equipment which included "a lot of wheeled armoured vehicles".
Michel Goya, a military historian, added that Ukraine probably succeeded in weakening Russian defences "with drones, electronic warfare and the infiltration of ranger units".
But after rapid early advances, the Ukrainian attack has slowed as Russia deploys more solid defences.
"After initial disarray and disorganisation, Russian forces have deployed in greater force in the region," the British defence ministry observed last Friday.
With its attack, Ukraine is engaging Russia on a second front for the first time since the war started, creating a situation that neither will be able to bear for very long, said Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general.
"While both might be able to surge their forces for short periods, it is unclear if the Ukrainians or Russians can sustain such an approach for months at a time," he said. "One side or the other will have to make a difficult choice about their priorities."
Ukraine's position in Russia could become, over time, more fragile especially as Moscow's army continues to make steady gain in Ukraine. —AFP
