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Thursday | 16 January 2025 | Epaper

How Dhaka will deal with Trump’s administration 

Published : Sunday, 17 November, 2024 at 12:00 AM  Count : 681
Sumaiya Jahan Samanta
With Donald Trump back in the White House, his administration's foreign policy may shift the landscape globally. This will shift the strategic position of Bangladesh radically. Bangladesh is a south Asian state still in the process of development; however, it holds important geopolitical position. It is currently trapped in the continuous competition between the US and China and is also under pressure from the regional giant India. In the context of the given three powers, Bangladesh enjoys diplomatic, trade and security relations, which pose prospect and drawbacks for Bangladesh's neutrality policies in the recent years.

It is safe to say that with Trump it will be all about his "America First" policy. Therefore, Bangladesh could be expected to pay more attention to enhancing its relations with the United States as Washington ramps up its actions against China's rising influence across the region. The US considers India as a strategic partner for the South Asia's Indo-Pacific strategy that aims at containing China and protecting the American interests in the region. Trump comeback to power may worsen the situation which could mean more pressure on Bangladesh to fall in line with this strategy - trade preferences, defence cooperation or changes in the position on regional issues.

China has become one of the most important economic partners of Bangladesh and has invested heavily in infrastructure development through its BRI. These Chinese investments have shown immense contribution to the development of Bangladesh. While China has invested heavily in Bangladesh's infrastructure, which is necessary for economic growth, it also weakens Bangladesh's economy. Thus, as both the US and its allies view these projects as Chinese tools, Bangladesh could become pressured to change its reliance on Chinese-backed projects. 

The economic consequences of such a balance are rather significant. The United States remains an important market for the Bangladesh RMG industry, contributing to 80% of Bangladesh's export earnings. It is also relevant to note that the Trump administration's protectionist policies may lead to a stricter trade policy and even tariffs that will affect exports from Bangladesh. To avoid trade losses in this case Bangladesh would have to look for other markets or bargain for an opportunity to continue accessing the US market. 

Given this tension, Bangladesh might need to reduce the over-reliance on a single country by seeking out new markets and investment destinations. Partnerships with such countries as Japan, South Korea, and the members of the EU could assist Bangladesh in strengthening its economy and, as a result, reduce the impact of the consequences of trade limitations or any political tensions that emergebecause of the competition between the USA and China.

Security is one of the major concerns of diplomatic issues in Bangladesh. As the Trump administration shifts focus back to China, India may be a beneficiary of this shift as both countries do not want China to become dominant in the Indo-Pacific region. For Bangladesh, this situation may lead to more pressure from both the US and India to adopt policies that are more aligned regional interests particularly when these are targeted at constraining China's strategic influence in South Asia.

 India has a special relationship with Bangladesh because of historical relations, geographical proximity and common security concerns. Despite cooperation in areas of common interest like counter-terrorism and security along the borders, there is insecurity between the two states primarily on the question of sharing boundaries and water resources. Bangladeshi Indian relations are quite complex and the more India plans to consolidate its regional power with the support of the US, it will become almost impossible for Bangladesh to stay in the middle.

If Bangladesh has to manage these pressures it might have to continue with the policy of hedging all three powers, by signing some security deals only with both the US and India while avoiding anything that could adversely affect its ties with China. A tactfully devised defence plan may provide the long-desired opportunities for Bangladesh to benefit from such security cooperation without much depending on a particular alliance. 

However, the changing geopolitical structure also has some prospects for Bangladesh despite consisting rather risks. Because Bangladesh can remain an independent player in a world where there is cutthroat competition, the country can become a mediator in any conflict, thus improving on stability. This way Bangladesh could play a more diplomatic-free role and get a better ground to conduct more diplomatic-based trade and business relations to many countries across the world. 

There is still a commitment towards multilateralism and regional cooperation in Bangladesh to strengthen its diplomacy. By participating in these organisations like SAARC, BIMSTEC, ASEAN and others Bangladesh can only improve relations regionally and develop a common front. This multilateralism may help Bangladesh navigate its interests outside of the confines of the bipolar influence and thus reduce the vulnerability of exclusion by a dominant power. 

In addition, Bangladesh can attract diversified foreign investment from different sources to enhance its economic independence. As the superpowers continue to jostle for dominance, Bangladesh has all the prospects and a young population putting the country as an investment destination that attracts international investors. A closer look at Bangladesh's vulnerability to external shocks and how the country can enhance its economic independence is provided below. 

By its position, as neutral in the South Asia region, Bangladesh can play the role of a mediator in the South Asian region to attract good investment with stability. 

The writer is a student, International Relations at Jahangirnagar University



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