Foreign Adviser Md Touhid Hossain is set to leave for Thailand today (Wednesday) morning to attend an informal meeting with the international community aimed at finding ways to repatriate over 1.3 million Rohingya refugees.
Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa will hold the consultations on December 19 and 20. In October, Thailand offered to host informal talks to find a way out of the crisis. Apart from Myanmar, representatives from China, India, Bangladesh, Laos, and Thailand, which all share borders with Myanmar, will attend the meeting.
"We know that it cannot be done overnight, but we need a solution. However, we will present our position at the meeting," Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain stated.
Thailand will host two regional meetings on Myanmar this week, with at least one to include representatives of the junta.
"Initially, Bangladesh, India, China, Malaysia, Laos, and Indonesia will have a meeting among themselves on what's happening in Myanmar. After that, the other ASEAN members will join them in another round of discussion," an official said.
The Burmese Civil War, ongoing since 2021, began following long-standing insurgencies among ethnic groups including Muslims and Buddhists, which escalated when the military took control in 2021.
Myanmar's importance to India increased markedly following the launch of India's "Act East" policy in 2014. From a security perspective, Myanmar is critical to maintaining stability in Northeast India (NEI). The four states of NEI-Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram, and Nagaland-share a common border of 1,643 km with Myanmar. Myanmar is also critical to limiting the influence of the Naga insurgency. The Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project is India's flagship investment programme in Myanmar, with a budget of USD 484 million.
India and China's growing presence in Rakhine, which is barely 150 km from Chittagong, is rapidly changing the region's economic and geopolitical landscape. Beijing has invested at least USD 15 billion in Myanmar. Under the aegis of the "Yunnan International Passage," the local government has developed roads and highways leading to Myanmar.
Although Bangladesh has no engagement with Myanmar, it has borne the brunt of the crisis, taking in around 1.7 million Rohingyas since 2017 and spending around USD 80 billion to meet their needs after they sought shelter in Cox's Bazar following the Army crackdown.
As of October 2023, Myanmar's military, the Tatmadaw, controlled about 40 per cent of the country, although they maintained that they controlled around two-thirds of the country's 330 townships. In the second half of 2023, Chinland Defense Forces in Chin State had captured a majority of the state, with a few holdouts in urban areas and along the India-Myanmar border remaining.
"China is making more concerted efforts to shape the trajectory of the conflict. The current chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has invited the bloc's foreign ministers to attend a meeting in Bangkok on December 20," reported the Jakarta Globe.
"The talks will start with an informal meeting between members of the ASEAN troika alliance, which includes current chair Laos as well as Indonesia and Malaysia, the bloc's last and next chairs, respectively," the report stated.
"So the troika will have a meeting among themselves first on what's happening in Myanmar," the official said. "After that, the other ASEAN members will join them in another round of discussion."
"Bangladesh also has a key role in Rakhine State, as do other outside actors. The emergence of a de facto state on its border that aspires to permanent autonomy will require the new interim government in Dhaka to expand the scope of its engagement with the Arakan Army, regardless of its views on those ambitions. While strengthening ties with the group, Bangladeshi envoys should emphasise the importance of treating the Rohingya humanely and with dignity," an official stated.
Meanwhile, Dr Khalilur Rahman, High Representative on the Rohingya Crisis and Matters of Priority to the Chief Adviser, said on Friday that Bangladesh would not take any hasty steps regarding the Rohingya issue without a proper assessment of the emerging situation in Rakhine State, Myanmar.
"We're keeping watch on the emerging situation in Rakhine… We don't want to do anything hastily. We'll not take any steps without deep consideration," he said.
Other foreign governments are exploring how they can work with the Arakan Army and neighbouring states to improve humanitarian access and expand assistance for all ethnic communities affected by conflict in central and northern Rakhine State. Thus, they aim to alleviate the effects of the civil war.
