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Leadership less Syria: Will it change the balance of power in the Middle East?

Published : Tuesday, 24 December, 2024 at 12:00 AM  Count : 300
Md Azgar Ali
In the cycles of nature's laws, a new dawn is followed by the emergence of a new sun, like every day, where there is a joyous spark of a glimmering ray of hope. Similarly, a new history appeared in Syria in the Middle East. Syrians celebrated the long-awaited 'new sunrise' after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. Not only that, the people of the country were saying, 'It is beyond description; we never thought this nightmare would end; we have been reborn.' Come what may, after 13 years of bloody civil war in Syria, Hafez al-Bashar was ousted on December 8, 2024. The conflicting rebel groups captured Damascus in just 12 days of 'shock' operation. 

As well as the 54-year dictatorship of the Assad family in Syria, come to an end. According to analysts, it was an incredible event, and the fall of Bashar at such an astonishing speed is unexpected and unprecedented in the recent world political history. After his death in 2000, his son Bashar al-Assad became president.  But the new president, Bashar al-Assad, like his father, ran a tightly controlled and repressive political regime. As a result of his father's iron-fisted policies, chaos and anarchy prevailed in Syria. Subsequently, a full-scale civil war began. In the years that followed, about 500,000 people were killed, over 100,0000 were injured, and about 13 million people fled their homes. At least 7.4 million Syrians are still internally displaced, and about 6 million Syrians have sought refuge in neighboring countries. However, after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the entire Middle East's geopolitical equation has changed. Several issues are being raised in front of the people of the country and the people of the world.  What is the future of Syria? How much will the process of unity between the conflicting groups bring stability to the country? Can Syria's weak economy turn around? 

Will the United States be involved in a multifaceted conflict in the coming days? Correspondingly, several countries are active in the fight for new political dominance around the country. Ever-rival Iran and Russia have to withdraw from the region. On the other hand, Israel is ready to strengthen its base by challenging Iran's prestige in the Middle East. In addition, Israel will not want to miss the opportunity that is created. Now Israel will celebrate the new image of the region where Turkey will be its main rival.Because Israel's closest supporters are America and its allies, if any difficult situation emerges, it can be said without a doubt that the allies will protect Israel in the future. Besides, power shifts in the region have seen Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and others appear unlikely to take any action against Israel, America's closest ally, to keep their regime intact and have changed Israel's calculus. In addition, the rebel groups that have emerged there are supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist group in Egypt. 



This has raised concerns between Israel and its Western allies. On the other hand, the most surprising thing is the rise of Turkey has thrown a challenge to the regional balance of power in the Middle East. Regardless of Turkey's economy, Ankara does not want to back down in taking geopolitical power. Turkey has well identified the vacuum created by established powers in Middle East politics.

In this regard, Turkey's President Erdo?an said that he will not allow Syria to become a terrorist arena and it must be prevented from becoming a hotbed of terrorism. The country needs to restructure and strengthen national security. He also said that Syria's neighbors, friends and fraternal countries should quickly take action in this regard with the support of the European Union and international organizations. It appears that Erdogan's government will do whatever it takes to expand its influence on Syrian territory. As a result, there is a threat of ending the rule of the monarchy in the region. Turkey's Islamist policies in the region have and continue to gain widespread support, particularly among Sunni Muslims and political elites. Regardless of what analysts think, much of what happens in Syria in the future depends on Turkey.

In this context, the newly elected President of the United States, Donald Trump, praised the President of Turkey, Erdogan, and said, "You know that there are many things in Syria right now, many things are still uncertain. I think Turkey holds the key to Syria's future. He also said, "Turkey is a major military force, which has not been worn out not with war." It goes without saying that Turkey has been supporting several rebel groups in the anti-Bashar civil war, and it can be assumed that Turkey's existing policy will continue in a more strategic manner in the coming days. In addition to Turkey's geopolitical interest in Syria, there is the creation of a new Syria by mitigating the conflict between the rebel groups to create a steady state.  Likewise, this dramatic shift could lead to an unprecedented geopolitical power vacuum in the Middle East and lead to more anarchy and even more violence that only the near future will tell.Right now, it can be said that the only topic of world politics is the current world politics around Syria. 

Because the eyes of the world leaders are not active in solving the barbaric massacre of Palestinians for 70 years by Israel, the poison of the Middle East, they are more curious about how to create more conflict in the region in order to survive their interests. Syria's disparate groups must forget their inter-group interests and predominance's and focus on governing the country, giving up expectations of what they should have achieved in the larger interests of the country's status quo, and only then will their dreams come true. Finally, yet most importantly, may the fragrance of the peace of that flower spread throughout Syria and beyond.

The writer is a researcher



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