Myanmar's military is probably at their worst stage in their quest of putting down the insurgency. In December, the military lost their strongholds in the state of Rakhine. After a year of brutal campaign, the rebels of Rakhine, who are known as Arakan Army, has captured the military headquarters and barracks in the city of Maungdaw. The rebels also seized control of the border outposts with neighboring Bangladesh. Rakhine can now be considered outside the control of Myanmar Government.
The state of Rakhine is renowned for religious diversity, as the state has a large Hindu and Buddhist population. Buddhists make up 76.7% of population while Muslims are 21.1% of the population. Rest of the population are Hindus, Christians and other religions. But that diversity also has a checkered history. Since the 1960s, Rohingyas has faced persecution from the military and radical Buddhists. That persecution reached a peak point when more than 742000 Rohingyas were forced to flee to Bangladesh after facing genocides by the military in 2017. Since then, millions of Rohingyas has been displaced and are still living in Bangladesh as undocumented migrants.
Bangladesh, for the past several years, has failed to negotiate with the Myanmar Government regarding the repatriation of the Rohingyas. The last successful initiative was back in 2023, when a group of delegates from Myanmar visited the Rohingya camps. But since then, not much has progressed about the issue which became forgotten. But the turmoil in Rakhine has once again raised new challenges for Bangladesh. This time, however, the scenario is different. The issue of Rohingyas has slipped out of the hand of the Myanmar Government, which is now under siege. In Bangladesh, the Hasina Government is no longer in power and the issue is now the headache of the interim Government.
Already, about 60000 new refugees has fled to Bangladesh amid the ongoing clashes in Rakhine. There is a possibility of a bigger influx of refugees. The position of Arakan Army regarding Rohingyas is unclear. The group is overshadowed by radical Buddhist nationalism, and would most likely prefer to leave out Rohingyas. The group itself has been accused of attacking Rohingyas in the past. The Rohingya camps in Cox's Bazaar and Bandarban are infested with ARSA insurgents and smugglers. These insurgents and smugglers can exploit the situation in Rakhine to smuggle in drugs and weapons to destabilize local security.
Rohingyas does not remain the only issue for Bangladesh. Arakan Army has already imposed a restriction on all kinds of movement in the Naf River. Thousands of fishermen depend on the Naf River and Bay of Bengal for their living and right now, their livelihoods are at risk. Tourism at St. Martin has already dropped as all kinds of civilian coastal movements are under threat.
“Bangladesh, therefore, should take note and initiate diplomatic meetings with Arakan Army as soon as possible. If necessary, the Rohingya issue will have to be set aside for a while.”
The time has come to consider this situation as a security threat. If Bangladesh wants to defend sovereignty, there is no option other than a military deployment. Bangladesh refrained from deploying troops at Mayanmar border, citing concerns that the move would be seen as an act of aggression by the Myanmar junta. But now the scenario is different. Dealing with a non-state actor who has hold over a territory is completely different challenge. Arakan Army is not a recognized entity and does not fall under many of the jurisdictions of international law. Any bold move by the group can land Bangladesh in a predicament.
Major players in the region are clearly interested in Rakhine. Most of them are already aware that Myanmar is not returning to normalcy anytime soon.Earlier in February, an Indian delegation led by Rajya Sabha member K. Vanlalvena met with leaders of Arakan Army. The meeting took place 12 kilometers inside Arakan and focused refugee crisis and the Kaladan Multi Modal Transit Transport Project, which is an Indian infrastructure project.China, on the other hand, hosted fourteen members of the Arakan Army in Tengchong this month. That meeting focused on ceasefire, peacebuilding and Chinese projects in Rakhine. Historically, Rakhine has been a regional hub for trade and merchants. That reputation lingers even today. The state stands on a vast reserve of untapped oil and gas which still has not been explored. The state is also strategically crucial for logistical purposes, as there is port along a long coastline and an airport.
Bangladesh, therefore, should take note and initiate diplomatic meetings with Arakan Army as soon as possible. If necessary, the Rohingya issue will have to be set aside for a while.Rakhine has geostrategic significance which Bangladesh can leverage for own interests. The chief of Arakan Army, Tun Myat Naing, in an interview,expressed desire for a friendly relation with Bangladesh. Therefore, the time is ripe to engage with dialogues with neighbors and secure security and economic interests. If a trade relation is possible, it will be possible to have access to energy at low costs, especially at a time when there is an energy crisis and inflation in the country. Only when a stable relation has been formed with the Rakhine, then the Rohingya issue can be approached together with the help of regional powers.
History has showed us that a troubled neighbor can spread trouble for home. Therefore, abandoning Rakhine at this point will be a terrible mistake for Bangladesh. An abandoned Rakhine littered with weapons, drugs and refugees will be nightmare for Bangladesh. Therefore,Bangladesh should not lose this opportunity to steer the neighborhood to a friendly relation.
The writer is a student of International Relations at Bangladesh University of Professionals
