Can interim government, with diplomatic efforts, address Rohingya crisis?

Diplomacy has converged to address the issue of forced migration. Migration has definitely taken centre stage in international discourse and diplomacy. While many players strategically politicise migration to strengthen their voting base at home, nations use migration as a tool in bilateral and multinational diplomatic engagements to advance their national migration or non-migration agendas on a global scale.

The Rohingya refugee crisis, one of the most critical humanitarian crises of the twenty-first century, has significantly burdened Bangladesh. Despite its many challenges, Bangladesh has shown empathy by allowing migrants to enter and granting them asylum. Managing over one million refugees seriously strains Bangladesh's capacity over the years. However, this has received minimal specific political action from the global arena. The situation exacerbates Bangladesh's long-term dependency risk, burdens its economy, and inflames social tensions between refugees and local communities. The country is experiencing significant issues in diplomatic ties also with other nations. However, even after more than seven years, the world leaders could not provide any practical solution to the crisis. Bangladesh has tried to find permanent solutions repeatedly but has failed without any positive outcomes.

The refugee crisis has intensified tensions related to several security concerns, including human trafficking, food and livelihood stability, internal and transnational security, border integrity, and environmental safety. Bangladesh's geographical proximity to the Golden Triangle and Golden Crescent provides a possible route for illicit drug trafficking. International criminal organisations use Rohingya individuals as couriers for the illegal trafficking of drugs and small weapons. This intensifies tensions between Bangladesh and other countries, significantly affecting Bangladesh's global labour market, remittances, and bilateral ties. A considerable number of unregistered Rohingyas have moved to the Middle East using fake Bangladeshi passports and identification cards. They attempted to behave like Bangladeshi citizens and engaged in various illegal activities, therefore tarnishing Bangladesh's reputation on a global scale.
Bangladesh is seeking assistance from regional and international leaders to address this crisis and provide a viable solution to the oncoming tragic event. The question now is whether the Interim Government can resolve the Rohingya refugee crisis through diplomatic efforts. It requires a deep analysis to find the answers. 

Despite diplomatic initiatives, Myanmar, governed by a military government since 2021, has refused to let the repatriation of its Rohingya nationals, upsetting Bangladesh and threatening regional security. Recent casualties among rebels and military personnel in western Myanmar near the Bangladeshi border, as well as during efforts to escape to Bangladesh, have raised significant concerns. Local officials indicate that about eight thousand Rohingya refugees are believed to have arrived in Bangladesh in recent months. Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus, heading Bangladesh's interim government, emphasised the need for sustained international focus at a high-level discussion on the Rohingya issue at the United Nations General Assembly. He emphasised that if neglected, the situation might destabilise not just Bangladesh but the whole region.

After taking the authority of Bangladesh, Dr. Yunus called for a reassessment of the existing strategy to address the refugee crisis. He emphasised that the UN Secretary General assemble a summit of all parties to assess the situation and provide progressive remedies. Dr. Yunus has underscored the need of revitalising the Joint Response Plan, collaboratively administered by the UN System and Bangladesh.

In addition to re-establishing law and order following the forced resignation of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5 this year, stabilising a wavering economy, and implementing extensive institutional reforms, Dr. Yunus and the interim government confront various formidable policy challenges, including the Rohingya issue. At the UNGA, Dr. Yunus emphasised that the international community must earnestly bolster the justice and accountability frameworks for addressing the genocidal atrocities committed against the Rohingya population. He emphasised that rectifying the injustices committed by the Myanmar military dictatorship is essential for enduring peace and stability in the region.

The interim government remains optimistic about the ongoing support of the international community for Rohingya humanitarian initiatives and their eventual repatriation to Myanmar, ensuring safety, dignity, and full rights, as the prior administration endeavoured to achieve following the Kofi Annan Commission's recommendations but failed. The distinctive political turmoil in Bangladesh has escalated violence and rekindled optimism for Rohingya refugees; nonetheless, they continue to confront an ambiguous and challenging future.

In response to the statements of Dr Yunus at the UNGA summit, the interim government of Bangladesh should adopt a more effective and diplomatic strategy. Repatriation will succeed only via coordinated efforts by relevant local and international stakeholders, especially regional organisations, the United Nations, and powerful countries such as the US. Otherwise, we must bear the burden of Rohingya refugees for an uncertain period, which would undermine the law and order, economy, and ecology of Bangladesh.

Professor Yunus, an economist and microfinance expert, is believed to possess significant ties to Western countries and the international donor community. He has the capacity to compellingly argue for more humanitarian assistance for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. The United States and many European nations may implement actions to address the democratic deficit in Myanmar if Bangladesh takes a robust diplomatic stance. In response, Bangladesh must enhance its ties with the West by promoting academic, cultural, and economic interactions to gain support and help from Western countries. Bangladesh must now undertake proactive and focused measures to prevent the Rohingya exodus and advance the restoration of their rights.
Dr Yunus has reasoned for a quick third-country resettlement scheme as a long-term fix as the Rohingya situation in Myanmar quickly becomes worse. In this case, Dr. Yunus may be helpful by using his popularity and ties in the donor community to convince Western nations to consider refugee acceptance. However, the vastness of the Rohingya crisis, the mixed goals of donors, and many countries' unwillingness to welcome migrants might make it difficult.

It is clear that Bangladesh will certainly endure adverse effects if the refugee problem remains unsolved for an extended period. From this perspective, strong cooperation among Myanmar, the United Nations, and other global leaders is essential. China should adopt a more liberal stance in this matter, putting aside its support to show its friendship with Myanmar. Following the Kofi Annan Commission's recommendations, the country must seek a solution and insist that Myanmar repatriate its citizens. China should proactively encourage the Myanmar military administration to undertake this move without engaging in a back-and-forth strategy. 

We value Professor Yunus' Three-in-One Diplomatic Approach as a feasible way to mitigate the Rohingya crisis. The tripartite strategy for diplomacy acknowledges the international community's earnest commitment to securing sufficient resources for the Rohingya, exerts consistent yet coordinated diplomatic pressure on the Myanmar government to ensure the safe repatriation of the Rohingya, and explores the feasibility of resettling Rohingya in third countries with aligned interests. If it is successful, this would be a momentous milestone in both the history of Bangladesh and the worldwide management of refugees.