COX'S BAZAR, the city where hills meet the sea, has long been known as one of Bangladesh's most iconic districts. Once celebrated primarily for its tourism, the district at the southern tip of the country is now emerging as an economic hub. Its strategic location along the Bay of Bengal has attracted attention not just nationally but from global powers eyeing the region. With the construction of a deep-sea port underway, the district is poised to play a pivotal role in the nation's future economic growth.
As the 13th Jatiya Sangsad election approaches, political discussions have intensified regarding which party or candidate might secure victory in Cox's Bazar's four constituencies. The caretaker government has announced that the elections will likely be held in the first half of February next year. Meanwhile, potential candidates have begun actively participating in party and social programmes, seeking to capture the attention and support of local voters.
Historically, the district has seen a shifting political landscape. In the 5th parliamentary elections of 1991, Jamaat-e-Islami won Cox's Bazar-1, the Awami League (AL) secured Cox's Bazar-2 and 3, and BNP claimed Cox's Bazar-4. During the 7th parliamentary elections in 1996, BNP candidates won all seats except Cox's Bazar-4. In 2001, BNP candidates swept all four constituencies, with Salahuddin Ahmed winning Cox's Bazar-1 (Chakaria-Pekua) for the third consecutive time and later serving as the Communications State Minister in the Four-Party Alliance government.
In the 2008 9th parliamentary elections, BNP won two seats, Jamaat-e-Islami one, and AL one. A review of the four national elections from 1991 to 2008 highlights BNP's stronghold across all constituencies, although Jamaat and other Islamic parties maintain a notable voter base. Political analysts predict a fierce contest between BNP and Jamaat this time, as both parties are preparing to contest independently.
Jamaat has already announced its official candidates for all four constituencies. Meanwhile, the National Citizen Party (NCP), despite its historic role in Anti-Discrimination Student Movement, lacks a strong contender here. Only in Cox's Bazar-2 (Maheshkhali-Kutubdia) , the party has a candidate who is actively campaigning, and other Islamic parties currently do not have a prominent candidate in the district.
Investigations reveal that while many veteran and new faces may emerge as candidates in Cox's Bazar, the real contest will likely remain between BNP and Jamaat.
Despite BNP's apparent confidence on the electoral ground, internal disputes and local power struggles have intensified over the past year. Political observers note that the party's choice of candidate in all four constituencies will largely hinge on Salahuddin Ahmed, a member of BNP's National Standing Committee. Party sources suggest he may contest both Cox's Bazar-1 (Chakaria-Pekua) and Cox's Bazar-2 (Maheshkhali-Kutubdia).
While smaller parties like NCP, AB Party, Nezam-e-Islam Party, and others remain active, they do not hold significant sway over voters in the district. Even though some Khatmi Islamic factions maintain a minor presence in certain areas, they lack a meaningful influence across any of the four constituencies. Organizationally, AB Party is relatively active, but NCP's local network is not yet matured.
COX'S BAZAR-1: This seat comprises Chakaria and Pekua upazilas.
It is considered the most significant constituency in the district.
Since 1991, it has been a stronghold for BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami. However, since 1996, the seat has been largely dominated by BNP. Salahuddin Ahmed, the National Standing Committee member and party spokesperson, commands a solid base here.
Salahuddin's political journey in the constituency began when he served as the personal secretary to BNP Chairperson and former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia in 1991, during which he initiated development projects in the area. Since entering politics, he has often been uncontested. In 2008, legal constraints prevented him from contesting, and his spouse, Advocate Hasina Ahmed, ran in his place and won.
Political analysts suggest no other party has a strong candidate capable of challenging Salahuddin Ahmed in this seat, leaving BNP in a confident position. Party insiders also indicate that if BNP returns to power, Salahuddin could be appointed minister of a key ministry, promising significant local development-an appeal likely to influence voter decisions in his favour.
Rumours also suggest that Advocate Hasina Ahmed, former Member of Parliament (MP) and Salahuddin's spouse, may again contest this seat, while Salahuddin may stand from Cox's Bazar-2.
Jamaat has already declared Abdullah Al Faruq, former student leader and Ameer of District unit, as its candidate. Since his nomination, Faruq has been actively touring the constituency, conducting frequent programmes across the area. Jamaat leaders maintain that the party has its own voter base in Chakaria and Pekua, and public trust in the party has increased since August 5, 2024. Regardless of the candidate's stature, they are committed to securing votes on the ground.
Abdullah Al Faruq emphasises, "In politics, it is never over until the final day. The people bring about change. Jamaat-e-Islami has successfully built trust and confidence in Chakaria-Pekua under changing circumstances. The rest will unfold with time." Former MP Enamul Haque Manjur is also mentioned as a possible Jamaat candidate by some voters.
Salahuddin Ahmed comments, "I must now think about the entire country. The people here love me. Even if I cannot be present daily, they remain loyal, and I have faith in them as well."
Outside the BNP-Jamaat rivalry, other parties are yet to make a visible impact. NCP, AB Party, and other like-minded parties are present but lack the organizational strength to influence electoral outcomes.
COX'S BAZAR-2: This constituency comprises Maheshkhali and Kutubdia islands.
The seat has historically been a stronghold of both BNP and Jamaat.
In the 2008 elections, Jamaat was excluded from the coalition, yet its candidate, A.H.M. Hamidur Rahman Azad-then Assistant Secretary-General of the party and a former student leader-won the seat. This year, Azad has been officially nominated again by Jamaat.
Although he is mostly busy in Dhaka with central party leadership, Azad occasionally visits the constituency to participate in campaign activities and personal voter outreach programmes. Analysts note that the constituency's electoral influence is nearly equally divided between BNP and Jamaat.
On the BNP side, the constituency has its own internal dynamics. Alamgir Muhammad Mahfuz Ullah Farid, a former BNP MP elected in 1996 and 2001, is recognised as a strong figure opposing Salahuddin Ahmed's faction within the party. Questions persist within BNP over whether Farid will receive the nomination, though he has long maintained an active presence in Maheshkhali, engaging with local voters. Farid remains confident about securing the party's nomination, asserting, "This seat has always been a BNP stronghold. The people here support BNP consistently."
Former MP ATM Nurul Bashar Chowdhury, Senior Vice President and former general secretary of the District BNP, is also seeking nomination from the party.
Alongside him, Advocate Nurul Alam, District BNP Vice-President, is also reportedly active in the constituency, ensuring continued organisational strength.
Smaller parties have entered the fray, though their influence is limited. The newly formed student-backed political party- NCP, has fielded its candidate, S.M. Suza Uddin, the party's central Joint-Secretary and District Coordinator.
Additionally, Principal Maulana Obaidul Qader Nadvi, a local leader of Bangladesh Khelafat Majlish, Maulana Shawkat Osman Kutubi, District Ameer of Nezam-e-Islam Party, and Advocate Enamul Haque Sikder, district Convener of AB Party are reported to be participating, though their electoral impact is minimal.
COX'S BAZAR-3: Previously consisting of Sadar and Ramu upazilas, this seat now includes the newly formed Eidgaon Upazila, created during the AL government.
Historically, the constituency has been favourable to BNP. In 2008, Lutfor Rahman Kajol won the seat as a BNP candidate. Prior to that, in 2001, Engineer Mohammad Shahiduzzaman had been elected, succeeding his elder brother Khalekuzzaman after his untimely death. In 1996, Mohammad Khalekuzzaman was also elected on a BNP ticket.
This year, Lutfor Rahman Kajol, BNP's Central Committee Secretary for Fisheries Affairs, is the leading candidate. However, he faces competition from former MP Engineer Mohammad Shahiduzzaman, who, despite a period of political inactivity, has been actively engaged with voters in recent years and maintains a strong personal vote bank. Notably, in the previous election, Shahiduzzaman ran as an independent candidate, receiving 58,000 votes-a significant number that surprised party leaders.
Jamaat has declared its candidate for this constituency: Shahidul Alam Bahadur, former vice-president of Cox's Bazar Government College Student Union and ex-vice-chairman of Sadar Upazila Parishad. Known popularly as VP Bahadur, he has been campaigning intensively. Nevertheless, he faces a significant disadvantage against BNP's heavyweight candidates.
Other smaller parties such as AB Party and Nezam-e-Islam Party have announced possible candidates. AB Party reportedly has two potential candidates-former Jamaat leader Jahangir Kasem and ex-student leader Sarwar Saeed-both central leaders. Nezam-e-Islam Party is considering district Ameer Maulana A.H.M. Nurul Alam Hilali from Cox's Bazar as its candidate. Despite their efforts, these parties hold limited sway in the electoral outcome.
COX'S BAZAR-4: This constituency covers Ukhiya and Teknaf upazilas along the Myanmar border and coastal areas. It is historically a bellwether seat.
In past elections, the winning candidate has often secured government power. The District BNP President and former whip Shahjahan Chowdhury has contested the seat since 1979 and has been elected multiple times. This year, he is again a BNP candidate, though he faces internal competition from District BNP Treasurer Mohammad Abdullah, who has long served as Shahjahan's rival and has established a voter base in Teknaf Upazila.
Party sources indicate that internal disputes and the controversial post-August 5, 2024 events have slightly affected Shahjahan Chowdhury's standing, though he retains substantial experience and voter support.
In this constituency, Jamaat has declared Maulana Nur Ahmad Anowari, four-time Chairman of Whaikyang Union Parishad in Teknaf, as its candidate, and he is actively campaigning.
NCP has limited organizational activity here and has not fielded a candidate. AB Party and Nezam-e-Islam Party are active with potential candidates: AB Party's Shamsul Haq Sharek, Cox's Bazar office head of the Daily Inqilab and central leader, and Nezam-e-Islam Party's Maulana Muhammad Yasin Habib, Deputy Ameer of Cox's Bazar District. Their electoral impact is likely marginal compared to the BNP-Jamaat contest.
Shahjahan Chowdhury emphasizes, "Our candidates are actively campaigning. BNP is preparing for elections at every constituency. Multiple aspirants are working in the field, but ultimately, the nominee receives full support from party workers." He adds, "It is too early to comment on election results. Our campaign activities continue across all areas."
Cox's Bazar District Secretary of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, Mohammad Zahedul Islam, states, "Our candidates are working hard in all four constituencies. Popularity and trust among the people have increased. Despite not being in a coalition, our position in the district is strong. Our leaders and candidates are reaching voters consistently, and we are optimistic about winning."
Across Cox's Bazar, the BNP and Jamaat rivalry dominates the electoral field. While BNP maintains its historical strongholds in all constituencies, internal disputes and local rivalries could influence candidate selection and campaign dynamics.
Jamaat's independent campaigning and organizational strength, especially in Cox's Bazar-2 and 4, make the contests competitive.
Smaller parties such as NCP, AB Party, Nezam-e-Islam, and Khelafat Majlish remain present but exert limited influence on overall voting outcomes. Candidates from these parties may focus more on awareness campaigns rather than direct vote conversions.
Voter priorities include economic development, infrastructure expansion, deep-sea port projects, employment opportunities, and effective governance. Candidates' ability to address these issues, combined with historical party loyalties and personal reputation, will likely determine the election results.
Political analysts suggest that the electoral battles in Cox's Bazar-2, 3, and 4 will be particularly intense, as both BNP and Jamaat have strong grassroots presence and organizational networks. The twin-island constituency of Maheshkhali-Kutubdia (Cox's Bazar-2) could be a key swing seat, reflecting broader political trends in the district.
Smaller parties, despite active campaigning, remain peripheral players. The electoral outcomes in Cox's Bazar's four constituencies will not only reflect historical voting patterns but may also signal emerging shifts in local political dynamics. With campaigns intensifying, voters across the district face critical decisions that will influence both regional governance and Bangladesh's broader economic and political trajectory.
