AL's visibility from obscurity signals new political calculus

After 18-month of enforced silence following the August 5, 2024 Mass Uprising and the subsequent ban on its political activities by the interim government, the Awami League and its affiliated organisations are gradually emerging from obscurity.
 
The parliamentary elections on February 12 appear to have catalysed a cautious revival, with local leaders and activists reopening offices across the country, a move analysts say signals a strategic return to national politics.

Since the elections, Awami League offices, shuttered in districts and upazilas from Chittagong to Rajshahi, have been reopened one after another. Reports indicate that offices in at least twelve districts have resumed activities, albeit under highly controlled and often ephemeral circumstances. Party workers broke locks, hoisted the national flag, garlanded portraits of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, chanted slogans, and cleaned offices to restore a semblance of organisational normalcy.

In Bogarchar Union, Jamalpur, Awami League leaders marked International Mother Language Day by hoisting the party flag and holding a prayer for the martyrs, with videos of workers chanting "Joy Bangla" going viral. Similar symbolic acts took place in Nagarkanda, Faridpur, and Goalanda, Rajbari, where a 'restoration banner' in the name of Md. Ashraful Islam proclaimed the office "fully rescued," flanked by portraits of Sheikh Hasina and Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.

Other districts witnessed comparable gestures: in Shibchar, Madaripur, the national flag was raised atop the abandoned office by Organising Secretary Atiqur Rahman Madbar; in Bagharpara, Jessore, portraits were displayed during Tarabi prayers amid slogans demanding Sheikh Hasina's return, drawing condemnation from the National Citizen Party (NCP). In Keraniganj, Dhaka, Sonia Akhter hoisted the flag at the local office.

The reactivation spans Tanore, Rajshahi; Patuakhali Dashmina; Khulna; Betagi, Barguna; Noakhali; Shariatpur; and Chittagong. Despite some offices being vandalised or set ablaze in Dinajpur, Mymensingh, Maheshpur, Chandpur, and Habiganj, the symbolic presence of the Awami League endures. In Noakhali, a banner proclaimed: "After a long eighteen months, the Noakhali District Awami League office has been liberated," under the supervision of General Secretary Hasina Chowdhury.

Since the post-election shift, over seventy offices across Chittagong, Rajshahi, Comilla, and Barisal divisions have reopened, with national and party flags hoisted, portraits displayed, and banners posted. Participation by local leaders, activists and citizens, including a day labourer, Elias Sheikh, in Gopalganj, underscore the party's effort to reconnect with grassroots constituencies and signal inclusivity.

Political analysts view these developments as more than organisational gestures. After 18 months of stagnation, the banned Awami League is trying to become active in the political arena again. Presence at the grassroots level is not just an organisational message; it is part of a strategic effort to regain a place in national politics.

The party is pursuing a measured approach, avoiding large scale programmes and relying on small symbolic acts, such as hoisting flags, displaying portraits, and raising banners, to test the tolerance of the BNP- led administration. The Awami League has adopted the strategy of 'showing presence' instead of directly holding big programmes. Future strategy will depend on the BNP's response.

BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman's pre-election remark, "If the people want, the children of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina can also return to politics," is widely seen as a signal of informal tolerance and BNP's positive democrative political commitment. 

Professor Dr. Nurul Amin Bepari, former chairman of Dhaka University's Political Science Department, stressed that allowing the Awami League political space is crucial for stability. "If they are given a chance, Jamaat-NCP will not accept it. Voters between 18 and 30 will also not. This will affect local government elections."

The reactivation mirrors past tactics; during its tenure, the Awami League relied on clandestine activities when Jamaat-e-Islami was banned. Now, reopening offices signals unity and readiness for forthcoming elections. Yet, resistance has emerged as anti-discrimination students, NCP chapters and unidentified groups have engaged in arson and vandalism, while police have arrested at least ten leaders in Parbatipur, Noakhali, and Dinajpur for breaking locks and displaying banners.

Commentators see the post-election reopening as part of a broader political recalibration. The BNP appears to exercise selective tolerance, recognising that marginalising the Awami League could strengthen rising Islamic parties like Jamaat-e-Islami. Analysts also note an emerging alignment between the two parties on issues like the 'July Charter' and the Constitutional Reform Council.

In sum, the symbolic reactivation of Awami League offices is a carefully orchestrated effort in political signalling, legal navigation, and grassroots engagement. This is not merely organisational revival; it is a statement to the electorate and the state: the Awami League is returning, cautiously but unmistakably.