Last World Cup of Messi, Ronaldo: Who will win the trophy?

With only days remaining until the 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off on June 11 across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, data analysts and football fans are locked in debate over who will hoist the trophy in this expanded tournament. 
While statistical models lean toward European dominance, the emotional weight of a definitive era-ending tournament for the sport’s greatest icons, Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Neymar, leaves the field entirely open.

The Statistical Frontrunners
A newly released predictive model by global investment bank Goldman Sachs has placed Spain at the top of the title race, giving the reigning European champions a 26% probability of winning the tournament. 
The bank’s model, which simulates match outcomes using historical Elo ratings and scoring metrics over 20,000 international fixtures, places France second at 19%, followed by defending champions Argentina at 14 per cent. Brazil per cent and England 5 per cent round out the top five analytical contenders. 
Spain’s status as a primary favorite rests on a highly balanced squad combining veteran experience with elite youth, anchored by talents like Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Gavi, Rodri, and Dani Olmo.

Powerhouses and Question Marks
Despite trailing Spain in some algorithmic models, several traditional heavyweights possess the depth to claim the title:
Argentina: The defending champions are seeking a historic retention of their crown. Backed by their recent Copa América and Finalissima triumphs, Lionel Scaloni’s side boasts formidable squad continuity through Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernández, Julián Álvarez, and Lautaro Martínez. 
France: Led by Kylian Mbappé, Les Bleus remain a premier tournament threat. With an elite young core featuring Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, Ousmane Dembélé, and Michael Olise, France aims to reach their third final in the last four iterations of the tournament.
Brazil: Entering a new era under manager Carlo Ancelotti, the Seleção are desperate to end a 24-year World Cup drought. While questions persist around the match fitness of 34-year-old talisman Neymar, the squad’s attacking bite will be driven by Vinícius Júnior and Raphinha.
England & Portugal: England enters the tournament aiming to finally break their championship drought after consistently reaching the latter stages of major tournaments under recent campaigns. Meanwhile, Portugal transitions into a formidable threat under the creative midfield presence of Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, and the explosive pace of Rafael Leão.

The Last Dance for Modern Icons
Beyond tactical setups and data metrics, the emotional narrative of the 2026 tournament centers heavily on a generational changing of the guard.
This tournament marks the likely final World Cup appearance for Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Neymar.
The looming departures of Messi and Ronaldo, who have dominated global football for nearly two decades, add a distinct layer of gravity to the competition. Both icons remain central to their teams’ structures and are expected to feature heavily not just in the pursuit of the trophy, but in the individual race for the Golden Boot alongside contemporary superstars like Mbappé and Harry Kane.
As history demonstrates, analytical models frequently falter under the unpredictable pressure of knockout football. In an expanded field with no absolute favorite, the tournament will ultimately be decided by the squad that manages individual moments of crisis best when the tournament begins on North American soil.