Every morning before heading to class, 22-year-old Rahat stops at a small roadside shop near his university campus. A cup of tea and a cigarette costs him Tk20.
"I know smoking is harmful," he says. "But honestly, it never feels expensive enough to make me stop."
Rahat's story is not unique. Across Bangladesh, millions of young people and low-income consumers continue to purchase cigarettes with relative ease, even as the cost of almost everything else rises around them. Health experts say this affordability lies at the heart of one of the country's most pressing public health challenges.
According to the World Health Organization's Global Tobacco Epidemic Report 2025, Bangladesh has the highest tobacco-use rate in South Asia. About 35.3% of adults use tobacco, compared to 28.6% in India and 19.1% in Pakistan. Nearly 37 crore 80 lakh adults currently consume tobacco products.
The consequences extend far beyond smokers themselves. Tobacco Atlas 2025 estimated that tobacco use contributes to nearly 18% of all deaths in Bangladesh. Every year, approximately 2 lakh people die from tobacco-related illnesses, including cancer, stroke, heart disease and chronic respiratory conditions.
For families, these deaths often mean more than grief. They mean lost incomes, mounting medical bills and long-term financial insecurity. Health economists argue that the true cost of tobacco becomes visible not only in hospitals but also in household budgets.
A recent publication by Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health estimates that tobacco generated roughly Tk40,000 crore in government revenue during FY2024-25.
During the same period, however, the economic and environmental damage caused by tobacco exceeded Tk87,000 crore. In other words, Bangladesh lost more than twice what it earned from tobacco.
"The discussion often focuses on revenue, but the broader economic burden is much larger," said Dr Rumana Huque, professor of Economics at the University of Dhaka.
"The costs include healthcare expenditures, productivity losses and environmental damage, all of which are ultimately borne by society."
Researchers say one reason tobacco continues to exert such a heavy toll is that cigarettes have become increasingly affordable relative to income. Between 2016 and 2022, household income in Bangladesh increased by 103% and per-capita income rose by 93%.
During roughly the same period, the prices of many essential commodities increased sharply. Data from the Department of Agricultural Marketing show that between 2021 and 2023, sugar prices rose by 89%, potatoes by 87% and flour by 75%. Egg prices increased by 43% and soybean oil by 34%.
Cigarette prices, by contrast, rose by only 6 to 15% across different market categories. As a result, economists argue that cigarettes have effectively become cheaper in real terms.
The affordability issue is particularly worrying because of its impact on young people. Among students aged 13 to 15 years, tobacco use stands at approximately 9.2%. Public health advocates warn that low prices make it easier for adolescents to experiment with tobacco and eventually become long-term consumers.
Researchers say the current tax system is partly responsible. Bangladesh applies a four-tier cigarette tax structure consisting of low, medium, high and premium categories. While intended to differentiate products by price, critics argue that the system allows smokers to switch to cheaper brands instead of quitting altogether.
National Board of Revenue data show that low-tier cigarettes accounted for 25% of the market in 2006-07. By 2023-24, that figure had risen to 76%.
Professor Dr Shafiun Nahin Shimul, director of the Institute of Health Economics at the University of Dhaka, believes the trend reflects a structural weakness in tobacco taxation.
"The more tiers you have, the easier it becomes for consumers to move from one product to another," he said. "Taxation becomes less effective at reducing consumption."
The tobacco industry frequently argues that higher taxes would encourage smuggling and illicit trade. Researchers, however, point to evidence suggesting otherwise. A World Bank study estimated that illicit cigarette trade accounts for only 1.8% of Bangladesh's cigarette market. The comparable figures are 17% in India, 38% in Pakistan and 36% in Malaysia.
Health economists therefore argue that maintaining low cigarette prices is not necessary to prevent smuggling. Instead, they believe Bangladesh has an opportunity to simultaneously improve public health and increase government revenue.
Among the proposals currently being discussed are merging the low and medium cigarette tiers, increasing the minimum retail price of a 10-stick pack to Tk100, and introducing a specific supplementary duty of Tk4 per pack while retaining the existing 67% supplementary duty. Researchers estimate that such reforms could generate an additional Tk44,000 crore in government revenue, encourage approximately 5 lakh adults to quit smoking and prevent more than 3 lakh 72 thousands young people from starting.
For smokers like Rahat, the answer may be reflected in the next budget. For policymakers, it may determine whether future generations inherit a healthier Bangladesh " or continue paying the price of cheap cigarettes.
