How Trump can keep the Presidency even if Republicans lose Congress

Donald Trump will not lose his office on election day because he is not on the ballot, but a Democratic win in the House on Tuesday would open the way to a third impeachment, and only an unusually large Republican revolt in the Senate could remove him.

Americans vote on Tuesday, Nov 3, in midterm elections that will decide all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats. The result will not change who sits in the Oval Office, but it will shape how much power Trump has over his last two years and whether he faces another impeachment.

Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47, counting two independents who vote with the Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the chamber.

The House can impeach a president by a simple majority. Removal needs a conviction by two-thirds of the Senate, which is 67 of 100 senators if all are present.

Trump has been impeached twice and acquitted both times. In the 2021 trial, 57 senators voted to convict, ten short of the number required. In January, Trump told House Republicans that if the party lost the midterms, “they’ll find a reason to impeach me.”

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Oct 19 put Trump’s approval at 31 per cent, a record low for him. It stood at 32 per cent in the survey published on Oct 27, when registered voters favoured Democrats over Republicans for Congress by 47 per cent to 36 per cent.

The economy is the main weakness. An AP-NORC poll conducted in September found 26 per cent of adults approved of his handling of the economy, a new low in that survey, and 17 per cent approved of his handling of the cost of living. Some 65 per cent said higher-than-usual prices were the result of his policies.

Support among young voters has also fallen. A Fox News poll discussed by CNN analyst Harry Enten put Trump’s net approval among voters aged 30 and under at minus 50, with 91 per cent disapproving of his handling of inflation.

Forecasters see the House as the likelier prize for Democrats. FiftyPlusOne’s August model gave them an 85 per cent chance of a House majority and 55 per cent in the Senate. Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 56 per cent chance in the Senate on Oct 18, with a projected 51 seats. 

The gap between impeachment and removal is wide. Democrats hold 47 Senate seats. If they win 51 to 56, they would still need between 11 and 16 Republican senators to vote to convict. In 2021, with Trump already out of office, seven Republicans did so.

If Republicans keep the Senate, conviction is effectively impossible. Prediction markets and several forecasters treat a Democratic House with a Republican Senate as one of the most likely outcomes.

The Senate map: Several of the seats Democrats must flip are in states Trump carried in 2024. He won Alaska and Iowa by about 13 points. Cook Political Report rates Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas as toss-ups. Candidates in some of these states are polling ahead of the president’s own numbers, and ticket-splitting is common in places such as North Carolina.

Fuel prices: On Oct 2, the G7 announced the release of 100 million barrels of oil and fuel products over four months, starting with a large amount of diesel in the first 20 days. US diesel averaged $6.37 a gallon that day, after a record $6.52 on Sept 22. Energy analyst Michael Lynch told the Associated Press a cut in diesel exports could lower prices by 25 to 50 cents within weeks. Other analysts warned the release is a short-term fix. Trump also said he would not impose a US export ban.

Campaigning and turnout: Trump began a 32-day rally schedule on Oct 1 and has added events in Kansas and Iowa. Early voting is high in Texas, where state data reported by the Texas Tribune showed about 26 per cent of registered voters had cast ballots, ahead of 2022 and 2018. Texas does not register voters by party, so it is not yet clear who benefits.

The Iran war: Fuel prices have climbed during a war that, according to the Associated Press, is now eight months old. Trump has said the cost is justified to stop Iran obtaining nuclear weapons, and has said prices will fall after the war. Diplomacy has produced ceasefires that did not hold, and no settlement is in sight.

Inflation: Consumer prices rose 3.4 per cent in the 12 months to August, according to the Labour Department figures cited by Newsweek.

Republican discontent: AP-NORC found a majority of Republicans disapproving of his handling of costs, a warning sign for turnout.

The Justice Department has taken several unusual steps in the final weeks. It sued California on Oct 15, asking a court to order officials to set aside the ballots of about 20,000 voters it says may be non-citizens. The Ninth Circuit dismissed an emergency appeal 2-1 on Oct 26, and the Guardian reported that US District Judge David Carter ruled against the department on Wednesday. California officials, who sampled the list, said many names had already been cancelled. The government is appealing.

On Oct 23, the department sued Alaska to block certification of its Senate race “pending an investigation” into votes for a second candidate named Dan Sullivan, whose name on the ballot resembles that of the Republican incumbent. Alaska officials filed a motion to dismiss on Saturday. Trump said he ordered the lawsuit.

Election law specialists quoted by the Guardian, including Ned Foley of Ohio State University and Danielle Lang of the Campaign Legal Center, say the president has no constitutional power over elections and that courts are likely to reject these efforts. Foley put the chance of “impactful nightmare scenarios” at under 50 per cent. Richard Pildes of New York University wrote that the litigation could give officials a pretext to delay certification even if it loses in court.

The new Congress convenes on Jan 3, 2027. Each chamber judges the elections and qualifications of its own members, a power that experts say could be tested only in an extremely close contest.

• Early calls in Ohio, North Carolina, Maine and Texas, which will show quickly whether the                Senate is in play.

• Alaska, where ranked-choice counting and the pending lawsuit could delay a result.

• Whether Republicans keep 50 Senate seats, which would block any removal.

• Court rulings on the California and Alaska cases and on certification deadlines.

Trump’s presidency is not at stake on Tuesday. What is at stake is Republican control of Congress, the House’s power to investigate and impeach, and the pressure on Republican senators if the party loses.

Removal would need a Republican defection with no modern precedent.

-SA