Arakan Army and the security dynamics in the region

Published : Monday, 16 December, 2024 at 11:32 AM Count : 2178

The Arakan Army (AA), a strong insurgent group in Myanmar, has reshaped regional geopolitics, presenting India with a strategic opportunity to recalibrate its relationship with Bangladesh. Dissatisfied with Bangladesh’s current government, viewed as anti-India and aligned with Western 'deep state' interests, India could exploit the AA’s growing influence and the local insurgents along the Myanmar-Bangladesh border to destabilize the Chittagong region. This calculated pressure could weaken Dhaka’s position, diminish anti-India sentiment, and allow New Delhi to emerge as a political dealmaker.

Such a move, especially under a Trump administration favourable to India, could align with broader geopolitical shifts. India might leverage instability to secure its interests while countering China’s expanding footprint in the region. However, the risks are considerable. The AA’s ties to illicit trade and its unpredictable loyalties, particularly with China, make it a volatile proxy. Any misstep could damage India’s regional credibility and strain its economic ties with Bangladesh. Besides, a destabilized neighbourhood could undermine India’s broader aspirations, proving that short-term strategies must always align with the larger goal of regional stability.

The writer is Editor of Geopolits.com and the Author of the book titled Bengal Nexus