Arakan Army and the security dynamics in the region

Published : Monday, 16 December, 2024 at 11:32 AM

Rajeev Ahmed

The Arakan Army (AA), a strong insurgent group in Myanmar, has reshaped regional geopolitics, presenting India with a strategic opportunity to recalibrate its relationship with Bangladesh. Dissatisfied with Bangladesh�s current government, viewed as anti-India and aligned with Western 'deep state' interests, India could exploit the AA�s growing influence and the local insurgents along the Myanmar-Bangladesh border to destabilize the Chittagong region. This calculated pressure could weaken Dhaka�s position, diminish anti-India sentiment, and allow New Delhi to emerge as a political dealmaker.

Such a move, especially under a Trump administration favourable to India, could align with broader geopolitical shifts. India might leverage instability to secure its interests while countering China�s expanding footprint in the region. However, the risks are considerable. The AA�s ties to illicit trade and its unpredictable loyalties, particularly with China, make it a volatile proxy. Any misstep could damage India�s regional credibility and strain its economic ties with Bangladesh. Besides, a destabilized neighbourhood could undermine India�s broader aspirations, proving that short-term strategies must always align with the larger goal of regional stability.

The writer is Editor of Geopolits.com and the Author of the book titled Bengal Nexus

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