Rationing, ban, warnings offer no foolproof answer to power crisis

Energy rationing and austerity measures are the key weapons in government hands to fights against the nagging power crisis during Ramadan, irrigation season and sultry summer in the upcoming days.

"No organisations, institutions or individuals will be allowed to operate air conditioners at lower than 25 degrees Celsius (°C) in the upcoming summer," Energy Adviser Fouzul Kabir Khan said.

The target for increasing electricity generation has been set. As a result, gas supply to the power sector will be increased, and supply to fertiliser factories will be reduced by half.

For the upcoming Boro season, the supply to fertiliser factories was increased to 140 to 150 million cubic feet, but this is gradually being reduced, Petrobangla said.

Meanwhile, the Power Division set to issue formal letters to various sectors and requested the Commerce Adviser to inform private businesses of the new regulation, however, the Religious Adviser will request mosque imams to maintain the air conditioner regulation, the Cabinet Division will direct all government offices, including the Secretariat, to implement this policy. 

"Non-compliance could result in the disconnection of electricity services and legal action against the offending entities or individuals," the adviser also said.

According to the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), power consumption is expected to surge by over 4,000 megawatts (MW) in Ramadan alone, pushing peak-time electricity demand to around 16,000MW from the current generation level of,808MW.

"This looming ban aims to alleviate the anticipated surge in power demand, which is expected to rise from 9,000 megawatts in winter to between 17,000 and 18,000 megawatts in summer," Adviser Fouzul announced adding that air conditioning units account for approximately 6,000 megawatts of electricity usage during the summer. 

"We are working hardly to increase the gas output, however, the supply of gas may increase by 200 to 250 million cubic feet during Ramadan, but all of this will go to the electricity sector. We don't know what will happen with the other sector like industries, captive power or domestic and gas dependent entities," Energy Division official has said.

The industrial sector is already facing a shortfall in supply for few months, he added.

Currently, 2.60 to 2.65 billion cubic feet is being supplied. During Ramadan, this may increase to 2.80 to 2.85 billion cubic feet.

According to sources at the Bangladesh Oil, Gas, and Mineral Resources Corporation (Petrobangla), the daily demand for gas in the country is 3.80 billion cubic feet, but expert said it is more than 4.0 billion cubic feet.

However, Petrobangla is supplying around 3,800 mmcf gas (including the imported LNG) per day against the demand of 4,200 mmcf gas, however, the demand of gas would shoot up around 5,000 mmcf in Ramadan and upcoming summer for cooking, cooling and irrigation purposes, these allocation could not be able to address the crisis. 

To address the issue, BPDB board urged Petrobangla to ensure 1400 mmcf of gas for the power sector thus it could be able to run its gas based power plants to achieve its required plan to produce around 17,000 MW of electricity along with coal and liquid fuel run plants, however, the power plants are now getting around 800 to 900 mmcf gas per day.

"The main challenges in power and energy sector is primary fuel as there is no magic in government hand that could increase the supply of primary fuel, and at the same time dollar crisis is also a serious impediment in this regard," Energy adviser Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan said.

Either we should produce more gas from local sources or to import more LNG, coal and furnace oil to produce more energy to address energy demand during that time, unfortunately we don't have huge dollar to addresses the issue, he added. 

The Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources has sought Tk 8,000 crore from the finance division to import primary fuels, however, it is yet to get any signal but only "assurances."

The energy ministry says that the gas crisis cannot be solved quickly. While the gas production is declining the ability to import LNG is limited. Petrobangla is struggling. They are unable to secure dollars regularly, and bills for LNG imports are not being paid, which is disrupting imports.

 "We are planning for rationing, initially the power and industrial sector to get priority in this regard," Petrobangla official said.