Imminence of a potential Sino-Taiwanese conflict and implications for Bangladesh

US General Douglas McArthur once rightfully dubbed pro-US Taiwan “an unsinkable aircraft carrier” and part of US Island Chain Strategy against China and the erstwhile Soviet Unionin the West Pacific. To the contrary, China always considered Taiwan as a breakaway province.A Chinese controlled Taiwan would nullify historic US influence over it and host Chinese bases into the Pacific Ocean.It would extend China's military reach and influence and help materialize Chinese dreams of expanding towards outside world.The Taiwan unification issue further keeps the flame of nationalism alive in China, which, in turn ensures the control of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) over the population. 


The US triumph in the 1991 Gulf War and the deployment of two Aircraft Carrier Battle Groups(CBG) during the 1995–1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis transformed anundaunted Chinese desperation into subsequent astonishing accomplishmentof unbelievable expansion and modernization of its naval, vis-à-vis, overall military capabilities. In 2023, the then CIA Director William Burns highlighted Chinese President Xi Jinping’sinstruction forPLA’sreadiness by 2027' for Taiwan operations.On 20th March 2024, US Navy Admiral John Aquilino, former head of the Indo-Pacific Command and Admiral Lisa Franchetti(Retd)of the US Navy expressed their assertion of China’s military’s preparedness to invade Taiwan tentatively by 2027- a key point in China’s military readiness. A Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense (MND) report also speculated the same in 2022. Above all, Chinese Supremo Xi Jinping’s numerous reiterations regarding a Sino-Taiwanese merger along with numerous catalysts may be indicative of a much anticipated, yet unwanted showdown in the Taiwan Strait, vis-à-vis,the Indo Pacific Region (IPR). Along with series of air/naval and live-fire exercises over the preceding years,the recent Thai-Cambodian Conflict might also have been a Chinesetest case to gauge potential US responses to assist its historic ally (Thailand).

Anear-term Sino-Taiwanese-US Conflict is possibly a question of “when” not “if”.All considered, anarrowed down probable timeline may be 2028-29. 

Takeaways for Bangladesh: Prospectively, at the indicative stages of such a conflict, a more rapid regional polarization will gradually take place. Strategically important littoral actors like Bangladesh will possibly ride the roller-coaster of diplomatic courting and coercion by major stakeholders and might be forced to take sides. This wouldfacilitate political, strategic weights and also required logistic and other facilities to the potential belligerents. The issue of Bangladesh’s joining in regional strategic alliancesmay resurface. The Bay of Bengal (BoB) may be highly contested, involving China, USA, India and also to a lesser extent by Russia and NATO forces,potentiallycomplicatingBangladesh’s sovereign stance. Apart from that, sea-borne trade and othermajor driving factors of Bangladesh’s economy like Chinese investment, import of raw materials, mechanical parts, food, fuel and other daily essentials, etcetera, export order and transportation of export items like Ready-made Garments (RMG) from Bangladesh to the Western World – all would be seriously hampered. These complicacies may leadto domestic chaos and unrest.In future Bangladesh may find itself in foreign sanctions list, or higher tariff for acquiringsophisticatedChinese civil/military technologies. Much to our hapless dismay, all these might further encourage regional powerful and extra-regional stakeholders seeking undue inroads into Bangladesh. 

To address such unwanted eventualities, Bangladesh may need to prepare from now onwards. A strong foreign policy, diversification of export products and destinations/clients, joining suitable regional and extra-regional groupings, strengthening domestic agro/ livestock-based economy, domestically researched alternative and offshore energy resourcesand preparation of appropriate military-strategic capabilities/deterrence, etcetera may be focused upon. As a basic essential undertaking, appropriate curricula from appropriate stages of childhood education may be gradually implemented for instilling patriotism and strategic vision to envisagepotential scenarios, foster national cohesion and address future unwanted eventualities.

at the Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP)