Experts suggest Track-2, Track-3 diplomacy for Rohingya repatriation

Experts suggested following Track-2 and Track-3 diplomacy for the repatriation of Rohingyas from Bangladesh to Myanmar as the Arakan Army's (AA) sweeping control of Rakhine State has further complicated matters of 1.5 million Rohingyas repatriation to Myanmar.

Track-1 diplomacy is formal government engagement; Track-2 involves non-state actors like academics or NGOs; Track-3, or citizen diplomacy, takes place at the grassroots level.

"The situation has taken up a different momentum as the Chinese embassy official in Dhaka has recently said that China tried to mediate but the Myanmar military and AA are now refusing dialogue. "We're waiting for a ceasefire," a Foreign Ministry official said quoting the Embassy.

Since the repatriation deal was signed with Myanmar in November 2017, Bangladesh tried but failed to send Rohingyas back. China then stepped in as mediator.

"This AA issue leaves Dhaka in a dilemma -- needing AA for repatriation but the junta as Myanmar's recognised authority….non state actor has create serious problem to implement any formal talks of repatriation issue," an UN official said.

Earlier, National Security Adviser Dr Khalilur Rahman has said Bangladesh must maintain relations with the junta while also keeping ties with the AA for border security.

Dr Imtiaz Ahmed, executive director of Centre for Alternatives, said one does not need to follow track-1 diplomacy. "If needed, you must follow tracks two and three."

He suggested that Bangladesh must also watch how China and India position themselves and warned that engaging with the AA could be seen as recognising a non-state actor, straining ties with Naypyidaw, so we must be very careful to deal the issue.

While all past attempts to repatriate the Rohingyas since 2017 have failed, the Arakan Army's (AA) sweeping control of Rakhine State has further complicated matters for Bangladesh, he added. 
Since the 2021 military coup, much of Myanmar has fallen under rebel control, including the AA in Rakhine.

"We are facing challenges on multiple fronts for reasons that aren't our responsibility," Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner (RRRC) Mizanur Rahman told reporters.

"If this continues, there will be serious humanitarian and security-related consequences," he added.
Since late 2023, the accumulated number of the forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals (FDMNs) sheltered in Bangladesh is about 1.5 million, and we are having 30,000 newborns in the camps every year, funding cuts by a major US donor increased the strain on the interim government. 

However, Bangladesh to spend around USD 1.22 billion every year for the Rohingyas, the loss of the biodiversity, loss of forest area of around 6,500 acres of land, and the adverse effects on the local population is immeasurable.

"Bangladesh has also been carrying the load in terms of societal and demographic balance, domestic and regional security, and the combat against violent extremism," Security adviser has said.

After the trilateral move slowed during the Covid-19 pandemic, another attempt at the end of 2023 fell through as fighting between the Myanmar military and AA intensified.