Half of AL supporters now favour BNP: CRF Survey

A sharp realignment of voter preferences has emerged ahead of Bangladesh's 13th National Assembly elections. Nearly 48 per cent of Awami League supporters now favour the BNP, while over one-third of first-time voters intend to back Jamaat-e-Islami, according to a nationwide opinion poll released on Wednesday.

The findings were unveiled at a press conference at the National Press Club by the Communication and Research Foundation (CRF) and Bangladesh Election and Public Opinion Studies.

The report, titled "Uncovering the Public Pulse: Findings from a Nationwide Survey", was presented by CRF Strategic Coordinator Zakaria Palash, with expert discussants Dr M Niaz Asadullah (University of Reading, UK) and Dr Saber Ahmed Chowdhury (Dhaka University).

The survey, conducted between November 20 and December 31, 2025, sampled 11,038 voters nationwide using a stratified random method. It found that over 90 per cent of respondents plan to vote, while about 8 per cent remain undecided or do not intend to participate.

One of the most notable findings is the shift in party support: 48 per cent of Awami League supporters now favour the BNP, and 37.4 per cent of first-time voters plan to vote for Jamaat-e-Islami. The report describes this as a "significant change in voter preferences" ahead of the polls.

Corruption emerged as the top electoral concern, cited by 67.3 per cent of respondents. Religion influenced 35.9 per cent, while rising commodity prices, development, employment, and security also weighed heavily on voter decisions. The survey notes that governance, transparency, and economic challenges are increasingly shaping votes over identity-based politics.

"Most voters, regardless of age or gender, want leaders who care about ordinary citizens and can govern effectively," the report said, highlighting that empathy, accountability, and administrative competence are valued over personal charisma.

The survey shows a gradual decline in rigid party loyalty. Nearly two-thirds of voters said the candidate matters most, with 30.2 per cent voting solely for the candidate and 33.2 per cent considering both the candidate and the party.

Voters expressed concerns about polling station security, intimidation, vote rigging, and ballot stuffing. These fears were shared across party lines, though the level of concern varied among supporters of different political formations.

Television and social media were cited as the most influential sources of political information. Most voters rely on multiple platforms, indicating a convergence of traditional and digital media in shaping political opinions.

Presenting the findings, Zakaria Palash said the data reflects a "growing demand for accountable governance and clean politics." Experts noted that the electorate is increasingly focused on corruption control, economic stability, and effective leadership rather than ideological or religious factors.

With over 90 per cent of voters expressing intent to participate, the upcoming elections are likely to see high turnout, but evolving voter behaviour, concerns over electoral security, and the erosion of traditional party loyalties present significant challenges for political parties and election administrators.