In Bangladesh, the arrival of Ramadan continues to expose a troubling paradox: the holiest month in the Islamic calendar repeatedly becomes one of the most financially burdensome for ordinary citizens. A month meant to cultivate self-restraint, compassion, and solidarity with the poor often turns into a period of market anxiety, rising food bills, and shrinking household budgets.
Weeks before Ramadan begins, prices of rice, lentils, edible oil, sugar, onions, chickpeas, dates, eggs, and meat begin to climb. In the final week, particularly ahead of Eid-ul-Fitr, another surge frequently occurs. This recurring pattern has become so normalized that many now treat it as an inevitable feature of market behavior. But is this truly an unavoidable economic reality? Or does it reflect deeper structural weaknesses and a moral crisis within the market system?
Yet Bangladesh's domestic food inflation remained persistently high. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), overall inflation during FY 2023-24 hovered around double digits for much of the year, while food inflation remained particularly elevated. In mid-2024, food inflation crossed 14 percent before gradually moderating, though it continued to remain burdensome for households. In FY 2024-25, average food inflation remained above 10 percent-among the highest sustained levels in a decade.
More importantly, the inflationary burden has been regressive. Rural households-where food constitutes a larger share of total expenditure-have borne the brunt. For low-income families spending 55-60 percent of their income on food, even a 5 percent price increase significantly erodes real purchasing power. For them, Ramadan price hikes are not marginal adjustments; they are existential shocks.If global commodity prices have eased, why do domestic prices remain elevated-especially during a predictable seasonal demand spike like Ramadan?
Ramadan is not a surprise. It is foreseeable years in advance. Importers, millers, wholesalers, and retailers know precisely when demand for chickpeas, edible oil, sugar, and dates will increase. In a competitive and transparent market, such predictability should encourage advance stocking and supply coordination, stabilizing prices rather than destabilizing them.Instead, Bangladesh witnesses pre-Ramadan stockpiling, opaque supply chains, and allegations of coordinated pricing behavior. Consumer surveys repeatedly show that a vast majority of households expect prices to rise before Ramadan-and most believe that traders deliberately increase prices during this period.
Classical economics teaches that when demand rises, prices increase-unless supply expands proportionately. In an efficient market, predictable seasonal demand is offset by forward contracts, increased imports, and inventory management. Persistent Ramadan-centric price hikes, therefore, point not to natural demand pressures alone but to structural weaknesses: concentrated market power, weak enforcement of competition laws, information asymmetry, and inadequate monitoring.
Examining other Muslim-majority countries reveals a striking contrast. In Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Malaysia, and Turkey, Ramadan often triggers price discount campaigns rather than price hikes. Large retail chains announce 20-40 percent discounts on essential items. Governments coordinate with private retailers to ensure price stability. In some cases, temporary price ceilings or expanded subsidized supply mechanisms are implemented.These measures are not merely economic tools; they reflect a broader understanding of Ramadan as a period of social responsibility. Corporate social responsibility programs are aligned with religious sentiment. Ramadan is treated as a time for easing burdens, not extracting extraordinary profit.
Even in predominantly Christian and Jewish societies, major religious festivals are typically associated with retail discounts. During Christmas in Europe and North America, supermarkets introduce "Buy One Get One Free" offers and substantial markdowns. During Passover, kosher food items are often subsidized or discounted to facilitate religious observance. The underlying principle is consistent: religious celebration should not translate into economic hardship.Bangladesh's divergence from this norm is therefore not only institutional but ethical.
Several structural factors contribute to Ramadan price pressures; First, market concentration. A limited number of large importers and refiners dominate key commodities such as edible oil and sugar. When upstream markets are concentrated, coordinated price behavior becomes easier-whether formal or tacit.Second, exchange rate volatility. Over the past two years, depreciation of the taka against the US dollar has raised import costs. Even when global commodity prices decline, currency depreciation can offset those gains domestically. However, exchange rate pass-through does not fully explain the sharp, time-specific spikes seen before Ramadan.
Third, weak enforcement. Bangladesh has laws against hoarding and excessive profiteering. Yet enforcement is often reactive and short-lived. Market monitoring intensifies before Ramadan, but sustained year-round oversight is rare. Without credible threat of exemplary punishment, regulatory deterrence remains weak.Fourth, supply chain opacity. Lack of transparent, real-time data on stock levels and import flows creates room for rumor-driven price increases. When consumers expect shortages, panic buying may amplify temporary disruptions.
Ramadan is not merely about abstaining from food and drink; it is about internalizing justice and compassion. The Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) warned against deception in trade. Islamic jurisprudence allows profit but forbids exploitation, artificial scarcity, and manipulation.When traders exploit predictable demand to inflate prices of essentials, the issue transcends economics. It becomes a moral failure. A society that cannot guarantee fairness in its markets during its most sacred month must confront uncomfortable questions about the relationship between faith and economic conduct.
Ramadan functions as a collective ethical test. For policymakers, it tests regulatory effectiveness and commitment to consumer welfare. For businesses, it tests whether profit maximization overrides social responsibility. For society, it tests whether moral principles influence economic behavior.Price stability during Ramadan is not unattainable. International examples demonstrate workable models. Domestic policy instruments exist. What remains uncertain is the political will and moral resolve to implement them consistently.
If morality remains absent from our markets, Ramadan will not merely highlight inflation-it will reflect a deeper social contradiction. The month meant to purify the soul will instead expose structural injustice.The central question, therefore, is not whether prices rise in Ramadan. The real question is whether we are prepared to align our markets with our moral commitments. Until we do, Ramadan price hikes will remain not just an economic anomaly-but a mirror of our collective ethical deficit.
The writer economist
