Amid the ongoing Iran-United States-Israel war, President Donald Trump's vulgar threats have once again increased tensions. On Truth Social, he wrote, "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day in Iran... Open the fucking Strait, you crazy bastards, or you will live in hell!" Very recently, Trump very recently said, "An entire civilization will be destroyed in one night." This cannot be the statement of any civilized person or leader.
If this threat reaches the nuclear level, what will happen to the Middle East, South Asia, Africa and the whole world? According to scientists' simulations and international research, it will be the most terrible disaster in human history.
Suppose a modern American nuclear bomb of 100-300 kilotons explodes in a major Iranian city or nuclear facility (such as Tehran, Natanz or Bushehr). According to NUKEMAP simulation, everything in the center of the explosion (fireball) will vaporize. Within 1 kilometer, the temperature will reach hundreds of thousands of degrees. Within 5-10 kilometers, buildings will collapse and firestorms will rise. Millions of people will die instantly.
The impact in the Middle East will be the most devastating. Millions in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE will be affected by radioactive dust and ash storms. In South Asia (Pakistan and northern India), radioactive particles may reach within 48-72 hours due to western wind flow. Northern Africa (Egypt, Libya) will be slightly affected, but there will be severe disruption in food and water supply. Immediately after the explosion, electrical equipment and communication systems will be destroyed. Medical systems in hospitals will collapse.
There are two types of radiation: initial radiation (prompt radiation) and fallout (radioactive dust). In a ground burst, fallout is the most dangerous. Isotopes like Cesium-137, Iodine-131, and Strontium-90 will spread. Depending on wind patterns, deadly fallout can reach 500-1,500 kilometers away. For example, if Bushehr nuclear plant is attacked, water and food in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh will be contaminated.
Immediate death from intense radiation, cancer, thyroid disease and birth defects. In the long term, soil, water and the food cycle will remain contaminated for decades. From the experience of Chernobyl and Fukushima, such contamination destroys the health and lives of millions. In South Asia, it will reduce agricultural production and create food crises and these countries are heavily populated. In Africa, the water crisis will become even more severe.
If a nuclear attack occurs, the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed. 20% of the world's oil passes through this route. Oil prices could rise to $150-200 per barrel. Europe will face an energy crisis and industrial shutdown. In Asia (China, India, Bangladesh), import costs will rise and inflation will reach 10-15%. Poor countries in Africa will face severe food shortages. In America, gasoline prices will skyrocket and a recession will occur. According to World Bank estimates, global GDP could fall by 5-8% in such a crisis. Stock markets will crash and inflation will rise.
In his recent threats, Trump has talked about destroying power plants, bridges and water purification centers. According to Article 54 of Additional Protocol I of the Geneva Conventions, attacking facilities essential for the survival of civilians (electricity, water, food) is prohibited. This is a war crime. International law experts say such threats constitute intimidation of the population and collective punishment, which violates the Fourth Geneva Convention. Trump's language ("crazy bastards", "hell") is not only vulgar but also against humanity. Such threats intensify war and reject international law.
At this very moment, all Gulf countries and South Asian nations must play a highly effective role to protect their own existence. Those who are threatening or want to carry out nuclear attacks are located thousands of miles away from the explosion site and will suffer no direct damage. To build a balanced and livable world, it is extremely necessary to limit Israel and America right now. Every country in the world must play an active role in limiting the nuclear and military power of Israel and America for world peace. Otherwise, the whole world will soon become a victim of their arbitrary military aggression. There is no doubt that Israel and America are now the biggest threat to world peace.
The entire world cannot be sacrificed to the arrogance of Israel and America's military power. Nuclear attack is not a 'solution', but suicide for humanity. Due to the excessive interference of powerful countries, if the Middle East is destroyed, South Asia and Africa will face food, water, and health crises and the global economy will collapse, one does not need to be an expert to understand this. Trump's threats carry clear proof of war crimes, which will bring destruction, not peace. The people of the world must be alert now. This crisis is not just Iran's, it is the crisis of the entire world.
The writer is Head of Photography, The Daily Observer
