Why the silence over Doval’s reported Dhaka visit?

Questions have arisen over Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval’s reported visit to Dhaka, which has not been officially confirmed by either India or Bangladesh.

According to reports in Indian media, Doval travelled to Dhaka on September 17 and spent a significant part of the day in the capital. However, neither the Indian nor the Bangladesh government has publicly confirmed that the visit took place.

On September 29, when asked about the report, Prime Minister’s Information and Broadcasting Adviser Dr Zahed Ur Rahman said the government had no information about Doval’s visit. On the same day, State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humayun Kabir said the reported visit was not discussed during his meeting with the Indian High Commissioner.

This has prompted questions about whether the reported visit took place and, if so, why neither side has publicly acknowledged it.

Indian news outlet Rediff first reported that Doval had visited Dhaka on September 17. The report suggested that the visit may have been connected to preparations for Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s possible trip to New Delhi. It also said issues such as the border, trade, water, energy and security could potentially be discussed.

The Times of India later reported that discussions were underway between the two countries regarding Tarique Rahman’s possible visit to India. The third week of November was reportedly being considered as a possible timeframe, although no date had been finalised.

There is, however, no official confirmation that Doval’s reported visit was connected to the possible trip by Tarique Rahman.

Doval is India’s national security adviser. His responsibilities include areas such as border security, intelligence cooperation, counterterrorism, transnational crime and strategic communication.

Security-level communication between Dhaka and New Delhi is not new. In April this year, Doval met Bangladesh Foreign Adviser Khalilur Rahman. In July, he also held a bilateral meeting with Bangladesh’s Defence Adviser on the sidelines of a BIMSTEC meeting of national security chiefs in New Delhi.

These meetings indicate that communication exists between the security establishments of the two countries. However, they do not provide confirmation of the reported September 17 visit to Dhaka.

The possible connection between Doval’s reported visit and Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s proposed trip to New Delhi has drawn particular attention. Discussions about the possible visit took place in August, but it did not happen. In September, there was renewed public communication between the leaders of the two countries. On September 17, Tarique Rahman extended birthday greetings to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who responded by thanking him.

Discussion about Tarique Rahman’s possible visit to Delhi subsequently resurfaced. However, Bangladesh has yet to confirm a date for the proposed visit.

If such a visit takes place, several sensitive bilateral issues could potentially come up for discussion, including the border, water, trade, energy and security cooperation. One of the most sensitive issues is the extradition of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, who is currently in India.

Following the 2024 student-led mass uprising, Bangladesh-India relations have faced a new set of challenges. Hasina’s presence in India, Bangladesh’s request for her return, the border situation and questions over political trust between the two countries have left several issues unresolved. At the same time, high-level communication between the two sides appears to be continuing.

Bangladesh is an important neighbour for India, while India is also an important neighbour for Bangladesh. Their long shared border, connectivity with India’s northeastern region, cross-border crime, smuggling and security in the Bay of Bengal are among the issues that form part of the two countries’ strategic relationship.

If Doval did visit Dhaka, the visit could potentially have significance beyond a routine courtesy meeting. However, without official confirmation of the visit or information about its purpose, any assessment of its political significance would remain speculative.

For now, the key point is the discrepancy between the Indian media reports and the official statements. Indian media have reported that Doval visited Dhaka on September 17, while the Bangladesh government says it has no information about such a visit.

Three questions therefore remain open: whether Doval actually travelled to Dhaka, whom he may have met if he did, and what may have been discussed. No official answer has so far been provided on these points.