The Rohingya Crisis: How Long Can Bangladesh Bear the Burden?

Bangladesh’s response to the Rohingya crisis has been an extraordinary humanitarian undertaking, demonstrating its commitment to protecting people fleeing persecution and violence. Since August 2017, when hundreds of thousands of Rohingya escaped Myanmar’s military crackdown, Bangladesh has provided shelter to one of the world’s largest refugee populations. However, nearly a decade later, the crisis remains unresolved, placing growing pressure on the country’s economy, local communities, environment and public services.

The scale of the challenge is enormous. According to the joint Government of Bangladesh-UNHCR population dashboard, 1,206,528 Rohingya refugees were registered in Bangladesh as of September 30, 2026. Of them, 1,173,291 were living in Cox’s Bazar and 33,237 on Bhasan Char. The population continues to require humanitarian assistance, while new arrivals and children born in the camps are adding to the long-term challenges.

The government, development partners and research institutions should establish a transparent mechanism to calculate direct and indirect expenditure, infrastructure requirements, environmental damage and the economic losses experienced by host communities. Such evidence would strengthen Bangladesh’s position in negotiations with international donors and make responsibility-sharing more meaningful.

Although no definitive cumulative figure is publicly available for Rohingya children born in Bangladesh since 2017, available humanitarian estimates indicate the magnitude of the situation. Save the Children estimated that 75,971 children were born in the Cox’s Bazar refugee camps between August 2017 and May 2020. The New Humanitarian, citing UNHCR data, subsequently reported more than 42,000 births during the first ten months of 2024. Recent estimates suggest approximately 30,000 to 35,000 births annually. Taken together, these figures indicate that around 300,000 Rohingya children may have been born in Bangladesh since the mass influx. This remains an approximate estimate rather than an officially verified cumulative count.
Each of these children needs adequate nutrition, healthcare, safe shelter, education and protection. Yet overcrowded camps, inadequate facilities and frequent exposure to fires, landslides and flooding continue to threaten their well-being. UNICEF estimated that more than 235,000 refugee children aged five to 17 were out of school at the beginning of 2026. Without proper education and protection, many remain vulnerable to child labour, early marriage, trafficking and other forms of exploitation.

The consequences extend beyond the refugee population. Cox’s Bazar was already an economically vulnerable district, where many local people struggled with unemployment, inadequate infrastructure and limited access to public services. The arrival of more than a million refugees has increased demand for employment, housing, transportation, fuel, water, healthcare and other essential resources. Competition for jobs and natural resources has also contributed to tensions between refugees and host communities.
Environmental degradation is another significant concern. The concentration of such a large population in a limited geographical area has placed enormous pressure on forests, hills, water resources and local ecosystems. Deforestation, waste disposal, demand for cooking fuel and inadequate sanitation have intensified environmental challenges. These pressures threaten the livelihoods of local communities and increase the vulnerability of both refugees and host populations to natural disasters.

The financial implications for Bangladesh are equally significant. In May 2026, the United Nations and its partners appealed for US$710.5 million to address the critical needs of Rohingya refugees and host communities. The appeal was 26 per cent lower than in 2025, reflecting the growing difficulty of mobilising international assistance. However, this humanitarian appeal should not be confused with Bangladesh’s total financial liability. It does not fully account for government expenditure, the use of public infrastructure and land, environmental losses, pressure on local services or missed economic opportunities.
Bangladesh urgently needs a comprehensive and independent assessment of the actual economic, social and environmental costs of hosting the refugees. The government, development partners and research institutions should establish a transparent mechanism to calculate direct and indirect expenditure, infrastructure requirements, environmental damage and the economic losses experienced by host communities. Such evidence would strengthen Bangladesh’s position in negotiations with international donors and make responsibility-sharing more meaningful.

International assistance has been substantial but remains inadequate in relation to the scale and duration of the crisis. According to the United Nations, donors contributed nearly US$5.42 billion to the Rohingya humanitarian response between 2017 and the end of 2025. Nevertheless, this contribution has not compensated Bangladesh for its wider economic and environmental costs, nor has it ensured that all humanitarian needs are met. The declining 2026 appeal demonstrates how vulnerable the response remains to changing international priorities.

The international community must therefore maintain predictable and adequate funding for food, healthcare, education, shelter, sanitation and protection. Host communities must receive comparable attention, particularly in employment generation, infrastructure development, healthcare, education and environmental rehabilitation. Bangladesh should not be left to carry a disproportionate share of a crisis created by systematic persecution and violence in Myanmar.

At the same time, humanitarian assistance cannot replace a political solution. The international community must intensify diplomatic pressure on Myanmar to address the root causes of displacement. Repatriation remains the most viable long-term solution, but it must be voluntary, safe, dignified and sustainable. Rohingya refugees cannot reasonably be expected to return while they face insecurity, persecution, restrictions on fundamental rights and uncertainty over citizenship and freedom of movement.
Regional powers, particularly China and India, must also play a more constructive role alongside ASEAN, the United Nations and other international actors. Their diplomatic engagement is essential to creating conditions for a credible political settlement in Myanmar. Without addressing the underlying causes of displacement, humanitarian assistance will only prolong an increasingly unsustainable situation.
Bangladesh, meanwhile, needs a coordinated national strategy combining humanitarian protection, diplomatic engagement, economic planning and support for host communities. Regular publication of reliable information on refugee numbers, births, public expenditure, environmental pressures and international aid flows would improve transparency and strengthen policy decisions. Special attention must be given to children born in the camps, ensuring access to education, nutrition, healthcare, identity documentation and protection from exploitation.

The Rohingya crisis is no longer simply a humanitarian emergency arising from a sudden influx of displaced people. It has become a prolonged regional challenge with serious economic, environmental, social and political consequences. Bangladesh has demonstrated remarkable generosity, but its hospitality cannot indefinitely substitute for international responsibility-sharing and a credible political settlement.
The central question is not whether Bangladesh should continue protecting people fleeing persecution, but how long the country can shoulder such an enormous responsibility without a clear international commitment to resolving the crisis. Sustained financial assistance, meaningful support for host communities, regional diplomatic engagement and guarantees for voluntary and dignified repatriation are urgently required. Otherwise, what was initially considered a temporary humanitarian response risks becoming a permanent burden, with its consequences borne disproportionately by Bangladesh and its people.