A Rulebook for the Paris Agreement, but time is running out

The 24th conference of the parties (COP24) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) concluded on 15 December 2018 at Katowice. After a busy two weeks the nearly 14000 delegates from 195 countries managed to agree a rulebook for achieving their Paris Agreement promises. It was started by Sir David Attenborough's stark warning to the world leaders urging them to tackle 'our greatest threat in thousand years'. David also warned that 'the collapse of our civilisation' is 'on the horizon' without further action. But the President of Poland Mr Andrzej Duda told the opening plenary session that there is no plan today to fully give up coal. This essay sheds some light on COP 24 agreed rulebook.

It was noted that US, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait did not fully recognise IPCC's findings about global warming. Australia along with US celebrates Coal and Brazil withdraws its offer to host next year's climate talk. Only EU, some other developed countries and several developing nations including the poorest and most vulnerable nations confirmed that they agree to meet the IPCC's advice on limiting warming to no more than 1.5 degree centigrade. In order to implement the rulebook, one should know-what is the current situation of the global emission? And how are we contributing to it?

The latest IPCC report says that the heating is the largest source of non-agricultural carbon emission, followed by transport and power generation with fossil fuels dominating all sectors. Heat for building and industry contributes to 48 per cent of total emissions. 27 per cent of it is generated by renewable sources. Transport contributes to 32 per cent of total emissions. 3 per cent of it is generated by renewable sources. Power contributes to 20 per cent of total emissions. 25 per cent of it is generated by renewable sources. Our fossil fuel emissions have already warmed the planet by 1 degree centigrade. As per IPCC report, our overall aim is to limit global warming to 1.5 degree centigrade above pre-industrial levels.

To get this, we need to know another magic number, which is how many more tonnes of carbon dioxide we are allowed to dump into the atmosphere. If we rely on probabilistic statistics, then we can say that we have 50 per cent chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degree centigrade if we limit our emission to 770 gigatonnes. Annual global carbon emissions are currently 40 gigatonnes. So, within next 20 years our 50 per cent chance of achieving 1.5 degree centigrade will be over. If we go down to 570 gigatonnes, then within next 20 years our chance of limiting global warming will be increased. But how to achieve this?

IPCC report says 'Any scenario that fails to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to net zero would not limit global warming.' So, there are potentially four scenarios for meeting the emissions target. Scenario 1 is everybody adopts a low energy lifestyle now. In this scenario no carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal technology (CDR) are required. Scenario 2 is-Rapid decarbonisation, some reliance of CCS and CDR are required. Scenario 3 is-Current trend continues and extensive use of CCS and CDR. Scenario 4 is-energy intensive economic growth and heavy reliance of CDR. Most of the scenarios suggest that we shall exceed the target and get back to the track with negative emission but using extensively CCS and CDR technology.

Considering the above situation, COP 24 agreed a rulebook that includes how governments will measure, report on and verify their emissions reduction efforts. Two common threads take longer for discussion. First, whether to agree a single set of rules for all countries or to maintain the current divide between rules for rich and poor. This is referred as rule based on differentiation or bifurcation.

Second, the provisions of climate finance to help developing nations adapt to the impact of global warming, mitigate their emissions and participate fully in the Paris process. At the end the rule moved towards a single set for all countries, with wide latitude for those that lack the capacity to meet them.  The 133 pages rulebook text uses legally binding language 'shall' instead of 'should' in many places. On climate finance issue, the rules are relatively permissive, giving flexibility to rich nations in what and how they report their contributions.

According to the Article 4 of the Paris Agreement, countries' climate pledges are based upon 'nationally determined contributions'. To this end, the final decision says that all countries 'shall' use the latest emissions accounting guidance from the IPCC. But IPCC guidance was last updated in 2006, which is due for another update in 2019.  Hope that the new report will consider the high global potential of Methane.

A good progress was made in formulating rules governing Article 9 which relates to climate finance reporting. The rules cover reporting on the projected availability of climate finance in future and reporting on money that had already changed hand. The final rules say that the developed countries 'shall' and developing 'should' report on any climate finance they provide. The countries are allowed to report the full value of loans as climate finance rather than the grant equivalent portion of the total.

Article 13 relates to transparency. The rulebook describes what, how often and with which details countries should report back on their climate efforts. It covers seven types of information including emission reporting, progress towards meeting climate pledges, adaptation, climate impacts and climate finance provided or received. In this case also countries fought over whether to differentiate the rules for rich versus poor countries. The final rulebook applies a single set of rules to all countries. In this case rule has to be applied with some flexibility for those who need it in the light of their capacities.

As per rulebook, those countries should identify, regularly update and include information on improvement. The rulebook indicates that emission must be reported no more than two years in arrears and shall report using common reporting tables and a common tabular format. The new style reporting rules will kick in for all countries from 2024. This means that this will happen after global stocktake of progress in 2023. There is a biannual reporting requirement. Some scientists think that reporting global warming potential based upon carbon dioxide equivalent over 100 years is a backward step, because this method of calculation will ignore individual greenhouse gas effect on climate change.

Article 14 relates to Global stocktake which means that every five years, countries will come together and take stock of progress towards the long term Paris goal of avoiding dangerous global warming. The final rulebook says that 'it is crucial for enhancing the collective ambition of action and support towards achieving the purpose and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement'. The rules also set the structure for the stocktake process, which is to be divided into three stages: Information collection, technical assessment and consideration of outputs. Next stocktaking is due in 2023. Former UN Climate chief Christiana Figueres mentions it as 'beating heart'.

There are some sideline activities also noted. As for examples, Poland launched 'Silesia declaration' signed by some 50 countries during the first week of the COP. It emphasised the need for emission reducing policies to ensure a smooth transition of the workforce from other energy sectors to renewable energy sectors. Poland also launched a declaration 'forest for climate' highlighting the important role of forests to reaching Paris Agreement goals. Some expressed concern that this means that the Poland hopes to use carbon offsets from forest and delay their efforts to reduce emissions.

One question is-how countries should raise the ambition of their climate pledges in order to collectively meet the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement? On current targets, as determined by individual nation states, the world is set for 3 degree of warming from pre-industrial levels, which is alarming. Hope that the countries will be able to show what they have met so far by 2020 and set  new targets for 2030 and beyond on the basis of scientific advice.

Couple of years ago we thought that carbon emission was stabilising but it is rising now. Coal use continues and oil is the main catalyst of the world's economy. Clean energy is developing faster rate than it was predicted before and cost of production is also coming down. Removing carbon from atmosphere is one of the important projects that investors want to implement. Countries now have a rulebook that they can use to plan, implement and review. They cannot have any excuse not to start and accelerate the implementation phase of Paris Agreement. We shall wait for COP 25 to be held in Chile next year to see any progress and hoping to see more progress in COP 26 to be held in 2020 either in UK or Italy.

Dr Kanan Purkayastha is an Environmental Advisor, Climate Reality Leader, Academics, Columnist and Author, who lives and work in UK. The opinion is personal.