What's actually happening between India and Pakistan right now is no short of a mirage.
First, India directly accused Pakistan for the killing of at least 40 Indian paramilitary members in a suicide bomb attack by Pakistan trained militants on February 14 - presumably Pakistan's 'valentine gift to India'.
Responding to India's accusation, Pakistan not only denied it but assertively responded to retaliate militarily. And almost immediately India struck with reportedly a dozen upgraded Mirage 2000 jets.
However, the sequential developments of losses of lives and fighter aircrafts claimed both by India and Pakistan yet continues to generate unending confusion over what really had happened over the skies of both Kashmir.
Let's be candid and realistic : Indian air force assigned Twelve Mirage 2000 multirole Indian fighter jets and bombed 'major terrorist camps' across the Line of Control and claimed to have blown up the camps by dropping 1000 Kg bombs , resulting in the killing of 300 militants of Jaish-e-Mohammed, the terrorist group responsible for the 'valentine attack' in Indian administered Kashmir.
The claim is rather unpersuasive to be deemed true. Indian Air Force is not particularly eminent in terms of target hitting and precision bombing. As many would agree, the air strikes was carried out in haste for defending , and to some extent giving a boost to Modi's countrywide vote bank prior the Indian national elections. The two have a strong connection but India's military response, had it been so indispensable, should have been much strategically planned.
Nevertheless, as I quietly kept working at office on Wednesday noon, a news notification set on my monitor took me by surprise: two Indian jets were shot down - claimed Pakistani authorities. In less than an hour, Indian authorities claimed to have shot down a Pakistani F - 16. Pakistan soon after claimed no F -16 was used in the counter strike. And this writer instantaneously blocked all news notifications onwards.
Sitting here in Dhaka, I was being constantly misled by the two countries' official press releases. Both the countries continue to produce respective self-made mirages full of deception following the air battles. Now the two air forces are purely engaged in a battle of ego.
The point, however, this is not the first time that a cross-border infiltration has hit the Indian army well inside its territory. 19 Indian soldiers lost their lives in 2016 and the same year marks no less than 8 militant attacks - with or without ISI backing - occurred inside Indian Territory.
Bombing from the air to wipe out militant hideout is not a very effective strategy. It has been proved time and again. The Americans had bombed gigantic mountains to the hilt to uproot militant bases with far more superior fighters and bombers than the Indians in numerable countries in the Middle East and Afghanistan, the scheme miserably failed. The Indians should have focused more on hit-and-run commando operations.
From a strategic perspective, the Indians could have destroyed the militant hideout, by launching a covert operation or a surgical strike, if it was so sure of it.
Also quite puzzlingly, how could the Indian authorities issue a statement to have killed 200 - 300 Jaish-e-mohammed militants by launching the air strike at Pakistan - controlled Balakot? The numbers are purely assumed based on poor guesswork.
It's foolish to think militants will have their camps exposed to clear and straight bombing from the sky.
On the flipside, Pakistan has repeatedly claimed of 'no loss of lives' resulting from the attack. Then what really happened following the Indian airstrike? Where were the thousand kilo bombs actually dropped?
Here Pakistan misled the media by not pinpointing where the Indian bombs had actually fallen?
When it comes to numbers of Indian Mirage 2000 jets flown into Pakistan - Kashmir, we don't know how many sorties were flown from the both sides following the first Indian strike, and we don't know the details of the downed jets - Pakistan and Indian.
We only know whatever the Indians and Pakistanis officially notify to the rest of the world.
However, normalising of Indo-Pak relations will continue to stumble in the face of all types of small-scale suicide, terrorist and guerrilla attacks.
With every new sworn in head-of-state, Pakistan keeps promising to 'normalise' its relation with India and India does the vice-versa. Yet the customary hate story remains the same and even worsens.
Quite sarcastically, this time the word mirage ironically matches with the Indian airstrike's outcome carried out by Mirage 2000 jets. The fighters had done their jobs only to make the IAF run after a true mirage of success - killing hundreds of militants in a densely forested mountainous region.
Not to forget, Pakistan's romance with French Mirage fighter jets are not new either , they were used in bombing missions during Pakistan's war with India at the western front in 1971 .There are still two types of more than 150 Mirage jets operating in the Pakistan Air force.
Pakistan also procured discarded Mirages from other countries, but in the past week it was India to have produced an actual mirage with its Mirage 2000s.
We don't actually know who were killed by the thousand kilo bombs dropped by the Indian fighters but we know that they were dropped on some spots. The mirage here, we will never know the truth, strikingly similar to detect a desert oasis. It appears, as if it is there, but in reality it is never there. The point of peace, otherwise the pond and the date tree, between India and Pakistan is seemingly there but it's actually a mirage. Each and every military conflict between the two countries reconfirms this truth.
The writer is editor-in-charge of the editorial section, The Daily Observer
