Following the seizure of the UK-flagged tanker Stena Impero last Friday, escalation between Iran and the Western world seems to be heading fast towards a climax. The released video footage on seizing the British oil tanker seemed like a typical action scene of a 007 movie, showing how the members of the Revolutionary Guards donning balaclavas brazenly descended from a helicopter scaling rope onto the deck of the tanker as Iranian speedboats closed in.
The tanker drama could have been easily averted, had the captain of the British tanker obeyed the Iranian warnings and altered its course accordingly. Sadly, once more the Brits had to pay a high price for their understandable ego and ignorance.
By shooting down a tech-savvy and costly US drone last month, Iran had proved its sheer technological prowess and accuracy attained in its air defence systems. Now they have been even bolder in the troubled waters of the Strait of Hormuz. Not only troubled, but also the Iranians can fish here. That said, caught between two completely opposing statements issued by Iran's state-run IRNA news agency and the British Foreign Office-about the actual location of the British oil tanker--it is not too difficult to gauge who was on the wrong side.
However, defying the counter warning sent by a distantly located Royal Navy battle ship, the Iranians captured and guided the tanker to its completely unexpected new home: the Port of Bandar Abbas. The Brits should have realised the sad truth that it no longer ruled the waves. Also the capturing of the tanker is now changing the dynamics of the geopolitical calculations in the Middle East.
Meanwhile Mr Trump has confirmed his support for UK trying to engage the latter in its personal war against Iran. As of yesterday's developments, the Islamic republic has declared to have arrested 17 spies, who it says were working for the CIA, and had sentenced some of them to death. Responding to it, US President Donald Trump dismissed the claims, branding Iranian claims to be 'completely false'.
What's next?
The question boiling inside my head: why would Iran, a country crippled by renewed and tougher economic sanctions, take such a deadly risk to capture the UK tanker?
Many have opined, Britain's seizure of an Iranian tanker near Gibraltar this month had triggered Iranian sentiment to seize a British tanker in retaliation. At least I am unwilling to bank on this perception; otherwise why the Iranians would issue a forewarning and allow passage before taking full control of the British oil tanker?
Being well aware of all types of retaliation, Iran is practically gambling with the British oil tanker and its crews, testing the core strength of the US-UK military camaraderie in the Middle East. Seizing of the tanker may also be a shrewdly crafted diplomatic risk to test the EU's long term stance on the US-Iran crisis. For the Persians, the Club 'Casino Royale' has now shifted to the Strait of Hormuz, following its value in transporting one fifth of world's crude and refined petroleum. Now it is even more valuable with a seized British oil tanker and captured CIA spies.
Whether the tanker is released or not, the question now, what would happen to the 17 alleged CIA spies? They are likely to be hanged since Mr Trump has denied all allegations for spying. Also if the Iranian spying accusation is true--the timing and strategy was wrong to have deployed the supposed CIA agents inside a British oil tanker.
But this tanker seizing incident will shape the forthcoming political and military future of the Middle East. More significantly, the new British prime minister is going to inherit a deepened international crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, and it cannot be ignored because of the Brexit or any other crucial issue. The new PM will either be on Mr Trump's side or on his own side.
For my readers' convenience, Britain's capturing of the Iranian tanker in Gibraltar was reported to transport oil to Syria--in violation of European Union sanctions targeting Syria's government. But the Iranian seizure of the Stena Impero has pushed Britain to get directly engaged in the intensifying dispute between Washington and Tehran.
Britain may or may not become, an ally to an American military campaign in Iran, but Mr Trump is attempting his best to capitalise on the latest crisis. He is gambling, and so are the Iranians with the seized British oil tanker. But for the Iranians' the stake is very high, and it is even higher with the declared death sentence of alleged CIA spies.
However, in any form of gambling, given whatever the stake, chances for a win or a loss stands equal. But the geopolitical gambling track record at the Strait of Hormuz suggests Iran to rule its waves.
Given the complex and supportive geographical setting of the Strait of Hormuz, only Iran is equipped with the courage, naval and military strength to gamble with any other external force in the region.
Time and luck are the key elements to decide the winner in this Hormuz gamble, but so far the Iranians have been calling the shots at the table. The British PM has been reportedly chairing the government's emergency committee Cobra while receiving regular updates and discussing security in the Strait of Hormuz, but without a James Bond in the picture or has the Iranians detained him too?
The writer is editor-in-charge, editorial section, The Daily Observer
