Rising violence, fear mark run-up to 13th nat'l polls

With the 13th national parliamentary elections approaching, Bangladesh is entering yet another tense and uncertain political season. Even before the Election Commission announces the official schedule next month, outbreaks of violence, aggressive unofficial campaigning and deepening public fear are already signalling a volatile road ahead.

Bangladesh's political atmosphere has grown increasingly combustible in recent weeks, with escalating insecurity and a deteriorating law and order situation dominating the pre-election landscape. Human rights groups report that at least eleven people have already been killed in election-related violence this year, including ten deaths in politically motivated clashes in October alone-an indicator of what experts describe as a "crisis of political culture and institutional fragility."

Tensions intensified just two days after the BNP finalised its candidate list, when a rally of its nominee Ershad Ullah in Chattogram-8 came under attack in the Hamzarbagh area. Five people, including Ullah, were injured, and controversial figure Sarwar Hossain Babla was shot dead. That same night, infighting between two BNP factions in Raozan left several people with bullet wounds and many more injured.

Analysts warn these incidents are early signs of a larger trend. With 3,300 murders recorded nationwide in the past ten months-ninety of them directly tied to political unrest-experts argue that a weakened law enforcement system has emboldened armed groups and heightened security risks across the country.

Muhit Hossain, a grocery shop owner in Narinda, Old Dhaka, expressed growing anxiety: "Every election we hear about clashes, attacks and shootings. This time it feels worse. We fear more violence, especially with ousted Awami League activists and different BNP groups showing force."

Private university student Addeba Basak echoed this sentiment. "As a young voter I want to participate, but I am worried about going to the polling centre. My parents are scared too. The environment does not feel safe for us," she said.

Bangladesh's electoral history reflects a recurring pattern of violence. Eighteen people were killed during the 1991 election; 141 died in the February 1996 polls. Even relatively peaceful elections-such as in 2008-saw sporadic casualties. In 2014, twenty-one people died amid attacks on polling stations, while the 2018 polls left twenty-two dead and more than two thousand injured. The one-sided 2024 election recorded at least eighteen deaths and over 2,200 injuries.

Current indicators suggest that the upcoming polls may follow a similar trajectory. According to the Election Commission, two-thirds of the country's 42,000 polling stations are classified as "risky," with over 8,000 marked as highly vulnerable. International voices have also raised concerns: Australian MP Abigail Boyd warned of "uncertainty, violence and institutional failures" surrounding Bangladesh's political environment ahead of the 2026 polls. The International Republican Institute (IRI) described the context as "fragile and uncertain," urging transparent nominations, coordinated security planning, and tighter oversight of political financing.

Law enforcement authorities say preparations are underway. AIG AHM Shahadat Hossain stated that 150,000 police personnel are receiving specialised training, and operations to recover illegal weapons are ongoing. Election Commissioner Anwarul Islam reiterated a strict approach, warning, "Anyone caught in violence will not be released before the vote."

Civil society organisations argue that this is not enough. The Ex-Forces Association has called for deployment of the armed forces with magisterial authority to prevent rigging and restore public confidence.

Economist Debapriya Bhattacharya said that while citizens "want to go to the elections," widespread insecurity-particularly affecting women and minority communities-continues to undermine trust in the process. Experts agree that persistent political intolerance, proliferation of illegal weapons, weak prosecution and partisan institutional influence are driving the cycle of electoral violence.