The ongoing Middle East crisis and its impact on LNG markets illustrates how geopolitical tensions can rapidly destabilize global energy flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical maritime corridors, Bloomberg reported.
While Bangladesh currently faces no immediate disruption to its energy supply chains, experts warn that if the confrontation escalates into a broader regional conflict, it could severely affect global energy supply, including Bangladesh. The Strait of Hormuz is not just a distant geopolitical flashpoint - it is a lifeline for Bangladesh's energy imports.
Bangladesh imports a significant portion of its LNG from Qatar, the world's second-largest LNG exporter, which delivered 82.2 million tonnes of LNG in 2025, according to Bloomberg data. More than four-fifths of Qatar's LNG exports went to Asian buyers in 2025, creating clear supply chain vulnerabilities for consuming nations like Bangladesh.
"Any interruption in shipping, surge in war-risk insurance premiums, or physical blockage of the Strait would have immediate consequences for Bangladesh's energy security," said Professor Dr. Ijaz Hossain. A Petrobangla official noted that Qatari LNG cargoes typically carry around 138,000 cubic metres of LNG.
Bangladesh signed a long-term LNG supply deal with QatarEnergy on June 1, 2023, for up to 1.5 million tonnes per year (Mtpa) over 15 years starting in 2026. Under the agreement, QatarEnergy will supply 12 cargoes in 2026, the first year of the deal, with the option to add another 12 under specific conditions. From 2027 until 2040, QatarEnergy will supply 24 confirmed cargoes annually, equivalent to 1.5 Mtpa.
Alongside QatarEnergy, Bangladesh also receives LNG from US-based Excelerate Energy under a separate long-term sales and purchase agreement (SPA). Combined, Bangladesh now imports LNG under four separate long-term SPAs and continues to source LNG from the spot market, though imports from the spot market have declined due to limited regasification capacity. So far in 2026, Bangladesh has imported only two LNG cargoes from the spot market, compared with 49 cargoes in 2025.
Since LNG imports began in 2018, Bangladesh has imported around 35.39 million tonnes of LNG through 571 cargoes as of January 2026, according to Rupantarita Prakritik Gas Company Ltd (RPGCL). A senior RPGCL official said the country imports LNG under both long- and short-term SPAs and occasionally from the spot market to meet mounting natural gas demand.
Technical and Operational Constraints
The Strait of Hormuz presents a strategic monopoly effect because there are no alternative routing options for these energy flows. Anne-Sophie Corbeau, Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, emphasized that any disruption to shipping through the strait immediately affects global supply availability and pricing mechanisms.
LNG carriers require specific maritime conditions and navigation protocols through the strait. The technical specifications of modern LNG tankers, combined with the strait's geography, create operational dependencies that cannot be easily substituted through emergency routing alternatives.
Production facilities also face constraints. Qatar's Ras Laffan complex encountered operational challenges during the week of February 24-March 1, 2026, with one production unit undergoing planned maintenance, according to trader interviews cited by Bloomberg. LNG liquefaction requires continuous export flows; prolonged shipping disruptions can force shutdowns to prevent equipment damage and safety hazards.
Immediate Market Impacts
The Iran crisis has already created operational challenges across multiple dimensions of the global supply chain. Bloomberg tracking data shows at least 11 LNG tankers linked to Qatar suspended operations to avoid transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Asian buyers, including China, India, and Japan, have activated emergency procurement protocols and contingency planning to secure alternative supplies.
Long-term LNG contracts are often linked to crude oil benchmarks, meaning that rising oil prices due to regional instability automatically increase LNG costs for Asian consumers, compounding the supply disruption effect. Market participants are now prioritizing supply security over previous oversupply concerns, marking a significant shift in market psychology.
Implications for Bangladesh
Bangladesh's dependence on LNG from Qatar underscores the risks posed by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While the country currently has no immediate supply issues, any escalation could disrupt shipments, increase costs, and strain the national energy system.
Bangladesh was supposed to receive nine cargoes of LNG in March, 11 in April, and another 11 in May, mostly from Oman, Qatar, and the spot market. Of these, 19 cargoes will transit via the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the strategic vulnerability of the country's energy imports. Experts emphasize that maintaining free and secure maritime passages, like the Strait of Hormuz, is essential for Bangladesh's energy security.
