After Six Months Iran war reaches its endgame 

BEIRUT, Aug 27: Six months after US and Israeli forces launched attacks on Iran, the conflict has reached an uneasy endgame: a costly stalemate. Iran’s leadership remains in power despite severe military and economic damage, while Washington has shifted from military strikes to sanctions and economic pressure.

The latest US measures target Iran’s oil revenues, banks and trading partners. Washington is also using a naval blockade to restrict Iranian oil exports and access to hard currency. But Tehran is betting that the United States will hesitate to impose aggressive secondary sanctions on major partners such as China and India.

The growing economic pressure is particularly dangerous for Iran’s rulers. Inflation reached 66% in July, while food prices rose 128% from a year earlier. Economic hardship has triggered protests in recent years, raising fears of renewed unrest. At the same time, Iran’s leadership has strengthened its security apparatus to prevent dissent from spreading.

The stalemate also creates difficult choices for Gulf states. They want the conflict contained but fear that Iran could retain the ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global energy route. Continued disruption has already contributed to higher oil, insurance and transportation costs.

Trump is paying a political price: Trump’s approval rating has fallen from 40% to 33% since the war began, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling. Only 31% of Americans approve of the conflict. Rising fuel prices and the approaching midterm elections could create further political problems for his Republican Party.

The global economy has been shaken: The disruption around the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher and raised fears of a global downturn. The IMF has reduced its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0%, from 3.3% in January. However, the global economy has proved more resilient than during the oil shocks of the 1970s.

Iran is wounded but not defeated: Iran’s military and economy have suffered major damage, but it still possesses missiles and drones and has retained the ability to threaten shipping and US positions in the region. The war has also intensified Iran’s economic crisis and political crackdown.

The ME has been destabilized: Iranian attacks have struck US-linked facilities and disrupted regional air travel and shipping. Combined with Houthi activity in the Red Sea, the conflict has increased insurance and transport costs and exposed US allies to greater security risks.

Iran’s nuclear ambitions may face delays: US and Israeli strikes damaged major Iranian nuclear facilities and killed nuclear scientists. US intelligence estimates suggest Iran’s breakout time could now be up to a year. However, uncertainty remains because international inspectors have not fully returned to Iran’s nuclear sites.

US military readiness has been weakened:  The United States has lost aircraft and used large quantities of missiles and air-defense interceptors. Washington has also moved significant military assets to the Middle East, raising concerns about readiness in Europe and the Asia-Pacific.�" REUTERS